Aggregator

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE LFK TO 35 NNE MLU. ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC069-073-111940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA TXC403-405-111940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE LFK TO 35 NNE MLU. ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC069-073-111940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA TXC403-405-111940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 17 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 111350Z - 111900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 17 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 750 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Far East Texas * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 750 AM until 100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue east-northeastward this morning into western/northern Louisiana and far southern Arkansas, with the strongest storms capable of large hail and possibly strong wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Shreveport LA to 65 miles northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0020 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0126 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA...FAR SOUTHEAST AR...AND CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0126 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast LA...far southeast AR...and central MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111625Z - 111800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The persistence of elevated supercells capable of producing large hail remains uncertain into Mississippi. Downstream watch issuance is possible, but will remain dependent on convective trends. DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell across northern LA produced numerous reports of large hail around 1.5 - 2.5 inches in diameter as it moved across Shreveport LA earlier this morning. This activity has since weakened slightly and become more linear, as it may be outpacing the better mid-level lapse rates plume and greater MUCAPE available across east TX into central LA. Still, ample deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt will support continued updraft organization with any convection that can strengthen and persist along/north of a surface front draped across central LA/MS. So long as these thunderstorms remain clearly elevated, large hail would remain the primary severe risk. Given that MUCAPE is only slowly increasing along/north of the boundary into central MS, it remains unclear whether the threat for large hail will become sufficient enough to justify Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance with elevated supercells. Greater tornado potential is expected to remain along/south of the front, and will be addressed in a separate Mesoscale Discussion later. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN... LAT...LON 33199195 33379140 33619066 33708946 33568853 32978867 32499005 32249113 32349185 32849192 33199195 Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0019 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE VCT TO 10 ENE LFK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC199-201-241-291-339-351-373-407-457-111840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN HARRIS JASPER LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LFK TO 30 ESE SHV TO 15 SW LLQ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-127-111840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WINN TXC403-405-111840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more