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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z On D3/Tuesday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (including the FL Peninsula); however, preceding rainfall across much of the area should limit most fire-weather concerns. For the remainder of the extended forecast period, a progressive mid/upper-level pattern will promote periods of lee troughing/breezy surface winds across parts of the central/southern High Plains followed by multiple frontal intrusions. A combination of marginal fuels and limited wind/RH overlap should limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0130 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 20... FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...Central Louisiana into portions of central Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 20... Valid 111947Z - 112145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 20 continues. SUMMARY...Tornadoes and very large hail remain possible for storms that can mature and interact favorably with the warm front in central LA/MS. DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop within the warm sector across parts of central LA/MS. Observations have shown the warm front has lifted very near or just north of Jackson, MS. Overall mid-level ascent remains weak as the primary synoptic trough lags to the west. However, forcing should continue to steadily increase this afternoon and evening as the trough moves east. It is likely that storms that can initiate will take time to mature given the less than optimal background ascent. Storms that can mature and interact with the warm front will pose a threat for tornadoes, some potentially strong, and very large hail. With the warm front slowly lifting north, the southern flank of activity in northern/central MS will have the potential to become surface based with an attendant increase in severe weather threat. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30999351 31269321 31489256 31759195 32379105 32549023 32258985 31349000 30899086 30889097 30539247 30559317 30739341 30999351 Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W POE TO 15 ESE IER TO 20 NNE MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-037-039-041-059-069-077-079-097-107- 115-125-112240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-075-077- 079-085-089-099-101-113-121-123-127-129-149-157-112240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER Read more

MD 0132 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0132 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112014Z - 112145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A strong/severe storm or two is possible this afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two could occur. A watch is uncertain in the short term, but convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have steadily increased in coverage and intensity along surface boundary in southern Alabama. While cooler temperatures and weaker mid-level lapse rates this far east have limited buoyancy, slow warming and moistening from the south has allowed MLCAPE to rise to 500 to near 1000 J/kg. The strongest storms in this cluster are most likely to remain along the southern/southwestern flank with access to more unstable inflow. Strong shear will mean the strongest storms will be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. The KMOB VAD does show modest low-level veering. Furthermore, low-level winds are forecast to increase later this afternoon/evening. A tornado or two would be possible with the strongest storms. A watch is uncertain in the short term, but may become needed if coverage in the warm sector increases. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 31288859 31588870 31868860 32168828 32468726 32368660 32128648 31658668 31128770 31288859 Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW MLU TO 55 ESE GWO TO 20 NE TUP. ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC065-083-112240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE MADISON RICHLAND MSC025-087-103-105-159-112240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LOWNDES NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0131 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0131 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central MS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19... Valid 111955Z - 112130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may persist with thunderstorms north of a front this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection north of a front across central MS has struggled to intensify this afternoon, while also acquiring more linear characteristics over the past hour or so. Even though this small cluster may remain slightly elevated, its close proximity to the warm front and gradual/filtered daytime heating occurring downstream suggests that strong to locally damaging winds may still occur with the stronger downdrafts. Deep-layer shear of 50-55 kt is also very supportive of continued thunderstorm organization. Isolated severe hail remains possible in the short term with any supercell that can develop within or ahead of the ongoing line. This activity should persist into AL, but with weaker MUCAPE in place with eastward extent, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated later this afternoon north of the front. ..Gleason.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33698996 33758900 33668841 33028854 32858970 32689024 33329035 33698996 Read more

MD 0127 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...West to northwest Texas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 111656Z - 112100Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow with snowfall rates approaching 1 in/hour should continue into the early afternoon hours across portions of west to northwest Texas. DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours across western TX have reported periods of visibility reductions down to 1/2 to 1/4 mile, indicative of moderate to heavy snowfall rates. This trend is expected to persist for the next few hours as lift within the left-exit region of an upper jet continues to coincide with a mid-level deformation zone at around 700 mb. While the dendritic growth zone is expected to remain somewhat shallow (around 50-100 mb deep), ascent through the 700-500 mb layer with lapse rates approaching 7-8 C/km should continue to promote moderate to heavy snowfall rates up to 1 inch/hour. Weak frontogenesis should limit the potential for long duration snow bands, but latest forecast guidance suggests that favorable overlap of mid/upper-level ascent will linger over west to northwest TX through early afternoon. ..Moore.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB... LAT...LON 34730173 34740092 34680017 34519985 34249969 33939969 33649984 33430016 33410058 33370131 33440205 33490231 33740273 34070294 34370283 34610248 34730173 Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W POE TO 15 W MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-037-039-041-043-059-069-077-079-097- 107-115-125-127-112140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON WEST FELICIANA WINN MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-075-077- 079-085-089-099-101-113-121-123-127-129-149-157-112140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MLU TO 55 SSE GLH TO 20 SE GWO TO 15 S UOX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC065-083-112140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE MADISON RICHLAND MSC007-019-025-051-087-097-103-105-155-159-163-112140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLAY HOLMES LOWNDES MONTGOMERY NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA WEBSTER WINSTON YAZOO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more