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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more

WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE AAF TO 15 SSE TLH TO 15 NE MGR. ..GRAMS..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC065-121940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON GAC027-121940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS GMZ730-755-121940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM Read more

WW 24 TORNADO FL GA CW 121500Z - 122000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 24 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Panhandle Extreme southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM until 300 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of storms with some embedded bowing/rotating structures will pose the threat for isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and a tornado or two for the next few hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Moultrie GA to 25 miles south southeast of Apalachicola FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 22... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0139 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 24... FOR EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0139 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle into far southwest GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 24... Valid 121647Z - 121745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 24 continues. SUMMARY...A limited severe threat with low probabilities for a brief tornado/locally strong gusts should persist with a thunderstorm line moving east across the Florida Panhandle and far southwest Georgia. DISCUSSION...A short-line segment is ongoing from extreme southwest GA to the central FL Panhandle coast. The warm-moist sector ahead of this line is quite confined with only about a county-wide band of upper 60s surface dew points. Modified 12Z TLH sounding suggests this richer moisture is necessary for appreciable surface-based instability, and will remain the main mitigating factor to the severe threat. Latest CAM guidance has minimal indications for appreciable strengthening of this line and given the observational trends, additional watch issuance seems unlikely. Surface wind gusts still seem likely to peak in the 45-60 mph range given semi-parallel deep-layer flow to the orientation of the line and peak measured gust during the past hour of 45 mph at KMAI. ..Grams.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 30958470 31128436 30978392 30888364 30728358 30418364 30148383 29908418 29668491 29588521 29618528 30958470 Read more

WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW AAF TO 30 WSW TLH TO 25 SW ABY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139. ..GRAMS..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-039-065-073-077-129-121840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GADSDEN JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA GAC007-027-071-087-131-205-275-121840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BROOKS COLQUITT DECATUR GRADY MITCHELL THOMAS GMZ730-752-755-121840- CW Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak shortwave within this flow may support some weak cyclogenesis in the Plains and some breezy conditions. Some of these breezy conditions may overlap relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent. The combination of only borderline dry surface conditions and moist fuels will preclude any fire weather threat. Dry conditions are expected to emerge across the Southwest with relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent. However, winds will also remain light and fuels remain moist with an extended dry period needed for critically dry fuels to emerge once again. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak shortwave within this flow may support some weak cyclogenesis in the Plains and some breezy conditions. Some of these breezy conditions may overlap relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent. The combination of only borderline dry surface conditions and moist fuels will preclude any fire weather threat. Dry conditions are expected to emerge across the Southwest with relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent. However, winds will also remain light and fuels remain moist with an extended dry period needed for critically dry fuels to emerge once again. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more