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MD 0345 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IL...EXTREME NORTHERN KY...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0345 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IL...extreme northern KY...and southern/central IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021558Z - 021830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradually increasing severe hail threat should exist with slowly intensifying thunderstorms across southern Indiana and vicinity. The damaging wind and tornado threat remain less clear, but some risk may eventually develop this afternoon. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually increasing in coverage over the past hour or so across southern IN and vicinity. This activity is largely tied to pronounced ascent associated with a very strong southwesterly mid/upper-level jet. Most of these thunderstorms are currently elevated, and located to the north of an outflow boundary related to earlier morning convection now in WV. Still, visible satellite and surface observation trends show attempts at low-level moisture returning northward ahead of these thunderstorms and filtered daytime heating across parts of southern/central IN. While MUCAPE remains weak at the moment, instability and deep-layer shear are both forecast to increase through the afternoon as a northern and southern-stream shortwave trough phase over the Midwest. This should support a threat for supercells capable of producing mainly severe hail initially. The risk for damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon will be dependent on whether sufficient low-level moistening/warming will occur to support truly surface-based convection. Regardless of this continued uncertainty with instability, the gradually increasing severe threat over the next few hours may eventually prompt watch issuance. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 37778803 37938850 38648844 39058804 39398743 40148624 40118503 39268486 38738537 37928666 37798721 37778803 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more