Aggregator

WW 0076 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 76 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PAH TO 25 W EVV TO 50 S HUF. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 76 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC051-125-129-147-163-173-022140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK KYC033-035-039-047-055-059-083-101-105-107-139-143-149-157-177- 219-221-225-233-022140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN DAVIESS GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LYON MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG UNION WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0077 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 77 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 77 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129- 131-133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231- 235-237-022140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BELL BREATHITT CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-041-043-047-061-071-077-079- 081-093-101-105-115-117-123-137-139-143-145-155-161-175-177- 022140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE OHIO ORANGE PERRY RIPLEY RUSH SCOTT SHELBY SWITZERLAND UNION WASHINGTON WAYNE KYC001-003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-037-041-045-049- 053-057-061-067-073-077-079-081-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111- 113-117-123-135-137-141-151-155-161-163-167-169-171-179-181-183- 185-187-191-201-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-239- 022140- KY Read more

WW 0079 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 79 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 79 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-022140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC003-009-013-017-057-081-095-115-117-139-141-145-022140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LEE MONROE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-049-051- 055-061-069-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-099-101-103-109-111-113- 117-119-125-127-133-135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177- 181-185-187-189-022140- Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more