Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward away from the Great Plains on Thursday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. Mid-level flow is forecast to become southwesterly over the southern and central Plains on Thursday, as a dryline sets up during the day. East of the dryline, moderate instability appears likely by afternoon from parts of west Texas northward into western Oklahoma and central Kansas. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible in some areas to the east of the dryline. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the southern and central Plains, suggesting a few supercells with large hail and wind damage may occur. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. On Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with a mid-level jet moving over a moist and unstable airmass. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from north-central/northeast Texas northward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The trough is forecast to be negatively tilted, and be associated with strong large-scale ascent and moderate deep-layer shear. This will likely support scattered strong to severe storms, with the greatest severe threat across northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Rockies. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection is expected to replenish a moist airmass in the southern and central Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are forecast to develop from parts of north Texas northward into Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear over an unstable airmass should support scattered strong to severe storms. MCS development could occur across parts of the warm sector Saturday evening. From Sunday into Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop Sunday afternoon ahead of the system along and near a moist axis from the Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward into the Ozarks. The severe threat, associated with the trough, would be further east on Monday. At this time, there is considerable spread among model solutions, concerning the timing of the trough on Sunday and Monday. A slower solution, which some models suggest could happen, would result in a large spatial displacement from current model forecasts. For this reason, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat area on either day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward away from the Great Plains on Thursday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. Mid-level flow is forecast to become southwesterly over the southern and central Plains on Thursday, as a dryline sets up during the day. East of the dryline, moderate instability appears likely by afternoon from parts of west Texas northward into western Oklahoma and central Kansas. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible in some areas to the east of the dryline. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the southern and central Plains, suggesting a few supercells with large hail and wind damage may occur. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. On Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with a mid-level jet moving over a moist and unstable airmass. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from north-central/northeast Texas northward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The trough is forecast to be negatively tilted, and be associated with strong large-scale ascent and moderate deep-layer shear. This will likely support scattered strong to severe storms, with the greatest severe threat across northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Rockies. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection is expected to replenish a moist airmass in the southern and central Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are forecast to develop from parts of north Texas northward into Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear over an unstable airmass should support scattered strong to severe storms. MCS development could occur across parts of the warm sector Saturday evening. From Sunday into Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop Sunday afternoon ahead of the system along and near a moist axis from the Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward into the Ozarks. The severe threat, associated with the trough, would be further east on Monday. At this time, there is considerable spread among model solutions, concerning the timing of the trough on Sunday and Monday. A slower solution, which some models suggest could happen, would result in a large spatial displacement from current model forecasts. For this reason, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat area on either day. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the High Plains on Wednesday, as flow at mid-levels remains west-northwesterly across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Texas into Oklahoma, with a warm front located from west Texas Panhandle eastward into central Oklahoma. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. A north-to-south corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop across west Texas during the day, with weaker instability extending eastward across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in west Texas during the late afternoon suggest that a capping inversion will be in place. The cap could weaken enough in areas that heat up the most, to allow for isolated convective development. Forecast soundings near Midland and Lubbock by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear at 40 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates. If a cell can overcome the cap, then isolated supercell development would be possible, with a threat for hail and strong wind gusts. This threat is highly conditional. Further northeast along the warm front in central Oklahoma, some model solutions suggest that elevated storms will develop during the afternoon or evening. Forecast sounding in central Oklahoma have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, with effective shear around 50 knots. This could be enough for a marginal hail threat. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the High Plains on Wednesday, as flow at mid-levels remains west-northwesterly across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Texas into Oklahoma, with a warm front located from west Texas Panhandle eastward into central Oklahoma. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. A north-to-south corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop across west Texas during the day, with weaker instability extending eastward across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in west Texas during the late afternoon suggest that a capping inversion will be in place. The cap could weaken enough in areas that heat up the most, to allow for isolated convective development. Forecast soundings near Midland and Lubbock by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear at 40 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates. If a cell can overcome the cap, then isolated supercell development would be possible, with a threat for hail and strong wind gusts. This threat is highly conditional. Further northeast along the warm front in central Oklahoma, some model solutions suggest that elevated storms will develop during the afternoon or evening. Forecast sounding in central Oklahoma have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, with effective shear around 50 knots. This could be enough for a marginal hail threat. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the High Plains on Wednesday, as flow at mid-levels remains west-northwesterly across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Texas into Oklahoma, with a warm front located from west Texas Panhandle eastward into central Oklahoma. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. A north-to-south corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop across west Texas during the day, with weaker instability extending eastward across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in west Texas during the late afternoon suggest that a capping inversion will be in place. The cap could weaken enough in areas that heat up the most, to allow for isolated convective development. Forecast soundings near Midland and Lubbock by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear at 40 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates. If a cell can overcome the cap, then isolated supercell development would be possible, with a threat for hail and strong wind gusts. This threat is highly conditional. Further northeast along the warm front in central Oklahoma, some model solutions suggest that elevated storms will develop during the afternoon or evening. Forecast sounding in central Oklahoma have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, with effective shear around 50 knots. This could be enough for a marginal hail threat. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the High Plains on Wednesday, as flow at mid-levels remains west-northwesterly across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Texas into Oklahoma, with a warm front located from west Texas Panhandle eastward into central Oklahoma. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. A north-to-south corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop across west Texas during the day, with weaker instability extending eastward across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in west Texas during the late afternoon suggest that a capping inversion will be in place. The cap could weaken enough in areas that heat up the most, to allow for isolated convective development. Forecast soundings near Midland and Lubbock by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear at 40 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates. If a cell can overcome the cap, then isolated supercell development would be possible, with a threat for hail and strong wind gusts. This threat is highly conditional. Further northeast along the warm front in central Oklahoma, some model solutions suggest that elevated storms will develop during the afternoon or evening. Forecast sounding in central Oklahoma have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, with effective shear around 50 knots. This could be enough for a marginal hail threat. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the High Plains on Wednesday, as flow at mid-levels remains west-northwesterly across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Texas into Oklahoma, with a warm front located from west Texas Panhandle eastward into central Oklahoma. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. A north-to-south corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop across west Texas during the day, with weaker instability extending eastward across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in west Texas during the late afternoon suggest that a capping inversion will be in place. The cap could weaken enough in areas that heat up the most, to allow for isolated convective development. Forecast soundings near Midland and Lubbock by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear at 40 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates. If a cell can overcome the cap, then isolated supercell development would be possible, with a threat for hail and strong wind gusts. This threat is highly conditional. Further northeast along the warm front in central Oklahoma, some model solutions suggest that elevated storms will develop during the afternoon or evening. Forecast sounding in central Oklahoma have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, with effective shear around 50 knots. This could be enough for a marginal hail threat. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the High Plains on Wednesday, as flow at mid-levels remains west-northwesterly across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Texas into Oklahoma, with a warm front located from west Texas Panhandle eastward into central Oklahoma. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. A north-to-south corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop across west Texas during the day, with weaker instability extending eastward across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Forecast soundings near the instability axis in west Texas during the late afternoon suggest that a capping inversion will be in place. The cap could weaken enough in areas that heat up the most, to allow for isolated convective development. Forecast soundings near Midland and Lubbock by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear at 40 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates. If a cell can overcome the cap, then isolated supercell development would be possible, with a threat for hail and strong wind gusts. This threat is highly conditional. Further northeast along the warm front in central Oklahoma, some model solutions suggest that elevated storms will develop during the afternoon or evening. Forecast sounding in central Oklahoma have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, with effective shear around 50 knots. This could be enough for a marginal hail threat. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Breezy/gusty post-frontal winds are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH during the afternoon, given ample boundary-layer heating/drying. As a result, locally/briefly elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther west, midlevel southwesterly flow will develop across the Southwest -- ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. While this will likely support an overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, fuels are generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Breezy/gusty post-frontal winds are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH during the afternoon, given ample boundary-layer heating/drying. As a result, locally/briefly elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther west, midlevel southwesterly flow will develop across the Southwest -- ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. While this will likely support an overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, fuels are generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Breezy/gusty post-frontal winds are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH during the afternoon, given ample boundary-layer heating/drying. As a result, locally/briefly elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther west, midlevel southwesterly flow will develop across the Southwest -- ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. While this will likely support an overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, fuels are generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Breezy/gusty post-frontal winds are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH during the afternoon, given ample boundary-layer heating/drying. As a result, locally/briefly elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther west, midlevel southwesterly flow will develop across the Southwest -- ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. While this will likely support an overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, fuels are generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Breezy/gusty post-frontal winds are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH during the afternoon, given ample boundary-layer heating/drying. As a result, locally/briefly elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther west, midlevel southwesterly flow will develop across the Southwest -- ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. While this will likely support an overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, fuels are generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge will build into the Rockies on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains from the west-northwest across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. South of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F across northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop, with MLCAPE expected to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings on Tuesday in the afternoon have a capping inversion in place. However, increasing low-level convergence along the front may be enough for isolated convective initiation. Any storms that form would be high-based, and in an environment with moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates. This could support a potential for isolated supercells with large hail. A strong wind gust or two would also be possible. The capping inversion should keep any severe threat in a relatively narrow window, from late afternoon into the early evening. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge will build into the Rockies on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains from the west-northwest across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. South of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F across northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop, with MLCAPE expected to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings on Tuesday in the afternoon have a capping inversion in place. However, increasing low-level convergence along the front may be enough for isolated convective initiation. Any storms that form would be high-based, and in an environment with moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates. This could support a potential for isolated supercells with large hail. A strong wind gust or two would also be possible. The capping inversion should keep any severe threat in a relatively narrow window, from late afternoon into the early evening. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more