Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain in place across the Rockies on Wednesday, and then move eastward across the Great Plains on Thursday. To the west of the ridge, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Desert Southwest on Thursday. At the surface on Thursday, a well-developed dryline is forecast from west Texas northward to west-central Kansas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the mid to late afternoon to the east of the dryline. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado threat could also develop. On Friday, the shortwave trough is forecast to become negatively tilted, moving through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast from the southern Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. As a mid-level jet moves over the warm sector during the day, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast in the western U.S., with a mid-level anticyclone located over the eastern half of the nation. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward to the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the warm sector each afternoon and evening, mainly in areas that have sufficient deep-layer shear. However, model spread is significant at this range, and predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain in place across the Rockies on Wednesday, and then move eastward across the Great Plains on Thursday. To the west of the ridge, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Desert Southwest on Thursday. At the surface on Thursday, a well-developed dryline is forecast from west Texas northward to west-central Kansas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the mid to late afternoon to the east of the dryline. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado threat could also develop. On Friday, the shortwave trough is forecast to become negatively tilted, moving through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast from the southern Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. As a mid-level jet moves over the warm sector during the day, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast in the western U.S., with a mid-level anticyclone located over the eastern half of the nation. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward to the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the warm sector each afternoon and evening, mainly in areas that have sufficient deep-layer shear. However, model spread is significant at this range, and predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain in place across the Rockies on Wednesday, and then move eastward across the Great Plains on Thursday. To the west of the ridge, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Desert Southwest on Thursday. At the surface on Thursday, a well-developed dryline is forecast from west Texas northward to west-central Kansas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the mid to late afternoon to the east of the dryline. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado threat could also develop. On Friday, the shortwave trough is forecast to become negatively tilted, moving through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast from the southern Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. As a mid-level jet moves over the warm sector during the day, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast in the western U.S., with a mid-level anticyclone located over the eastern half of the nation. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward to the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the warm sector each afternoon and evening, mainly in areas that have sufficient deep-layer shear. However, model spread is significant at this range, and predictability remains low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build into the Rockies on Tuesday. At the surface, a slow-moving front should be located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward across Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Surface dewpoints near the front are forecast to be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Within this pocket of instability, forecast soundings for 00Z/Wednesday have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 40 knots of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates above 8 C/km. This would support an isolated severe threat. However, a shallow capping inversion is evident around 750 mb. This will likely keep convective initiation very isolated, making any severe threat conditional. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build into the Rockies on Tuesday. At the surface, a slow-moving front should be located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward across Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Surface dewpoints near the front are forecast to be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Within this pocket of instability, forecast soundings for 00Z/Wednesday have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 40 knots of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates above 8 C/km. This would support an isolated severe threat. However, a shallow capping inversion is evident around 750 mb. This will likely keep convective initiation very isolated, making any severe threat conditional. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build into the Rockies on Tuesday. At the surface, a slow-moving front should be located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward across Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Surface dewpoints near the front are forecast to be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Within this pocket of instability, forecast soundings for 00Z/Wednesday have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 40 knots of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates above 8 C/km. This would support an isolated severe threat. However, a shallow capping inversion is evident around 750 mb. This will likely keep convective initiation very isolated, making any severe threat conditional. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build into the Rockies on Tuesday. At the surface, a slow-moving front should be located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward across Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Surface dewpoints near the front are forecast to be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Within this pocket of instability, forecast soundings for 00Z/Wednesday have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 40 knots of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates above 8 C/km. This would support an isolated severe threat. However, a shallow capping inversion is evident around 750 mb. This will likely keep convective initiation very isolated, making any severe threat conditional. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build into the Rockies on Tuesday. At the surface, a slow-moving front should be located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward across Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Surface dewpoints near the front are forecast to be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Within this pocket of instability, forecast soundings for 00Z/Wednesday have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 40 knots of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates above 8 C/km. This would support an isolated severe threat. However, a shallow capping inversion is evident around 750 mb. This will likely keep convective initiation very isolated, making any severe threat conditional. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the southern periphery of a midlevel low tracking eastward across southern Canada, a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. At the same time, a cold front will move eastward across the region. Behind the front, 20-30 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will overlap the northern edge of low boundary-layer RH across eastern MT into the Dakotas. While this may lead to localized fire-weather concerns, preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels for some areas, and uncertainty regarding RH reductions, limit confidence in the fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Ahead of the front from the southern Plains into the Midwest, a tight pressure gradient beneath a strong low-level jet will yield 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). However, RH reductions generally appear marginal across this corridor. Nevertheless, the strong/gusty winds may still promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the southern periphery of a midlevel low tracking eastward across southern Canada, a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. At the same time, a cold front will move eastward across the region. Behind the front, 20-30 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will overlap the northern edge of low boundary-layer RH across eastern MT into the Dakotas. While this may lead to localized fire-weather concerns, preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels for some areas, and uncertainty regarding RH reductions, limit confidence in the fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Ahead of the front from the southern Plains into the Midwest, a tight pressure gradient beneath a strong low-level jet will yield 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). However, RH reductions generally appear marginal across this corridor. Nevertheless, the strong/gusty winds may still promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the southern periphery of a midlevel low tracking eastward across southern Canada, a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. At the same time, a cold front will move eastward across the region. Behind the front, 20-30 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will overlap the northern edge of low boundary-layer RH across eastern MT into the Dakotas. While this may lead to localized fire-weather concerns, preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels for some areas, and uncertainty regarding RH reductions, limit confidence in the fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Ahead of the front from the southern Plains into the Midwest, a tight pressure gradient beneath a strong low-level jet will yield 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). However, RH reductions generally appear marginal across this corridor. Nevertheless, the strong/gusty winds may still promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the southern periphery of a midlevel low tracking eastward across southern Canada, a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. At the same time, a cold front will move eastward across the region. Behind the front, 20-30 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will overlap the northern edge of low boundary-layer RH across eastern MT into the Dakotas. While this may lead to localized fire-weather concerns, preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels for some areas, and uncertainty regarding RH reductions, limit confidence in the fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Ahead of the front from the southern Plains into the Midwest, a tight pressure gradient beneath a strong low-level jet will yield 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). However, RH reductions generally appear marginal across this corridor. Nevertheless, the strong/gusty winds may still promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the southern periphery of a midlevel low tracking eastward across southern Canada, a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. At the same time, a cold front will move eastward across the region. Behind the front, 20-30 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will overlap the northern edge of low boundary-layer RH across eastern MT into the Dakotas. While this may lead to localized fire-weather concerns, preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels for some areas, and uncertainty regarding RH reductions, limit confidence in the fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Ahead of the front from the southern Plains into the Midwest, a tight pressure gradient beneath a strong low-level jet will yield 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). However, RH reductions generally appear marginal across this corridor. Nevertheless, the strong/gusty winds may still promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive to fire spread. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Monday. ...Central and Southern Florida Peninsula... An upper-level trough will move to the Atlantic Seaboard on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints should generally be from 65 to 70 F. As the moist airmass heats up, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday. This activity is expected to persist through much of the afternoon, gradually progressing southeastward to near Miami. NAM forecast soundings from 18Z to 21Z to the northwest of Miami have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates reaching 7 C/km. This environment could support an isolated supercell, associated with hail and damaging wind gusts. However, multicell is expected to be the dominant storm mode. The stronger short line segments could be capable of a marginal wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to be concentrated during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Monday. ...Central and Southern Florida Peninsula... An upper-level trough will move to the Atlantic Seaboard on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints should generally be from 65 to 70 F. As the moist airmass heats up, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday. This activity is expected to persist through much of the afternoon, gradually progressing southeastward to near Miami. NAM forecast soundings from 18Z to 21Z to the northwest of Miami have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates reaching 7 C/km. This environment could support an isolated supercell, associated with hail and damaging wind gusts. However, multicell is expected to be the dominant storm mode. The stronger short line segments could be capable of a marginal wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to be concentrated during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more