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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

WW 0138 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 138 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MLC TO 20 NW MKO TO 20 E TUL TO 30 ESE BVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524 ..GUYER..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 138 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-021-035-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-115-121-127-131-135- 145-261340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEQUOYAH WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GYI TO 10 WNW ADM TO 40 NNE ADM TO 15 N MLC. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-069-085-095-099-123-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GYI TO 10 WNW ADM TO 40 NNE ADM TO 15 N MLC. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-069-085-095-099-123-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GYI TO 10 WNW ADM TO 40 NNE ADM TO 15 N MLC. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-069-085-095-099-123-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GYI TO 10 WNW ADM TO 40 NNE ADM TO 15 N MLC. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-069-085-095-099-123-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GYI TO 10 WNW ADM TO 40 NNE ADM TO 15 N MLC. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-069-085-095-099-123-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPS TO 20 NNW ADM TO 40 W MLC TO 25 SE CQB. ..GUYER..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-261340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC TXC077-097-181-337-261340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY COOKE GRAYSON MONTAGUE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 137 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 260825Z - 261300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 137 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma Extreme north Texas * Effective this Friday morning from 325 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of storms appears to be organizing near and north of the Red River, and these storms will spread east-northeastward through the early morning hours. Damaging winds of 60-70 mph will be the main threat, along with occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. A tornado or two will also be possible with circulations embedded in the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south southwest of Fort Sill OK to 55 miles north northeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 135... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0523 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137... FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0523 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...Central into eastern OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137... Valid 261012Z - 261145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and a couple brief tornadoes will spread eastward early this morning. DISCUSSION...A QLCS has recently intensified from central into southern OK, with a possible QLCS tornado recently noted east of Norman. The 08Z OUN sounding depicted minimal MLCINH, and similar surface conditions are noted farther east into east-central/southeast OK, to the west of an outflow reinforced boundary across northeast OK. Rather strong low-level shear and SRH were noted on the 08Z OUN sounding and pre-storm KTLX VWP, and some threat for embedded mesocyclones and QLCS tornadoes (along with isolated severe gusts) may spread eastward into the moderately unstable environment downstream. A small downstream watch issuance is possible within the hour. ..Dean/Thompson.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35539717 35999683 36119638 36089597 36009587 35809574 35539567 35309566 35099562 34929564 34759568 34349579 33889619 33719662 33599702 33599737 33639765 33959753 34279731 34549718 34789721 35539717 Read more

WW 0138 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0138 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0138 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0138 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW SPS TO 15 NW ADM TO 25 SSW CQB TO 10 WNW CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523 ..DEAN..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-049-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-125-133- 261140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE TXC077-097-181-337-261140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY COOKE GRAYSON MONTAGUE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW SPS TO 15 NW ADM TO 25 SSW CQB TO 10 WNW CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523 ..DEAN..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-049-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-125-133- 261140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE TXC077-097-181-337-261140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY COOKE GRAYSON MONTAGUE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0522 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 135... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0522 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...North-Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 135... Valid 260743Z - 260945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat may continue downstream of WW135. A new watch may be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection continues to move across north-central Texas along and south of the Red River. This line has produced a few severe hail and wind reports but has only maintained modest intensity over the last couple of hours. The environment ahead of this line would support continued risk for severe wind and hail, given MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, deep layer shear around 40-50 kts, and increasingly favorable moisture amid a largely uncapped profile. While the line is expected to continue eastward through the morning, some uncertainty lies in the ability for convection to become more well organized, and thus the coverage of any potential severe potential. Given the favorable airmass and shear profiles, a downstream watch is being considered. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35269823 35309736 35239717 34799702 34379694 33649686 33489701 33449731 33429799 33449888 33499939 33759971 34179996 34599983 34659973 35009913 35269823 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more