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WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 164 TORNADO KS MO 302030Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Northwest Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along a cold front/dryline over eastern Kansas and drift eastward through the afternoon and evening. Supercells capable of very large hail are the main concern, although damaging winds and a tornado or two may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Falls City NE to 50 miles south southeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 163... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL IA TO NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe weather (large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes) is from western and central Iowa to northeastern Kansas. ...20Z Update... Main concerns with this outlook are the extent/amplitude of tornado probabilities over the IA vicinity and MRGL versus SLGT risk across the southern Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the Mid-MO Valley after midday soundings from OAX/TOP sampled a mean mixing ratio near 10 g/kg, within the plume of around 60 F surface dew points. Primary uncertainty is the degree of tornado potential as these storms spread into parts of southwest to south-central IA vicinity. A couple long-track supercells might evolve given the favorable low to deep-layer wind profile. But the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture, with potential for appreciable cold pools as convection consolidates, lowers confidence in sustaining a greater tornado threat. The northern extent of severe potential will continue to be modulated by weaker instability amid downstream convection currently from central IA to eastern SD. Non-HRRR guidance is fairly insistent on isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline, south of its triple-point intersection with the surface cold front pushing southeast from southwest to central KS. Across western portions of TX and OK, the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and localized severe winds through about dusk. Have opted to bring the SLGT to the agitated CU field near CSM in western OK and leave MRGL in effect farther south. ..Grams.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Eastern NE/Western IA/Northwest MO/Northeast KS... Water vapor loops show a fast-moving shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max moving across the central Rockies into the Plains. Ahead of this trough, southerly low-level winds are transporting moisture northward with dewpoints in the 60s now as far north as southeast NE. Continued daytime heating and moisture advection will lead to a narrow corridor of moderate CAPE over eastern NE by mid-afternoon. A consensus of morning model guidance indicated that thunderstorms will form in this regime, with other intense storms developing southward along the surface cold front into northeast KS by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. After dark, these storms are expected to congeal into one or more bowing structures that will track eastward into central IA/northern MO with a greater risk of damaging wind gusts along with hail and perhaps tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Western OK/Northwest TX... The surface dryline will extend southward from northeast KS into northwest OK and northwest TX. Isolated intense storms are expected from roughly Wichita northward, with decreasing confidence from there southward. Weak large scale forcing, rising mid level heights, and generally warming temperatures at 700mb suggest any storms that form along the dryline will be widely scattered. However, large CAPE values, steep mid level lapse rates, and sufficient vertical shear will support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards in any storm that can form/sustain. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT/MRGL areas at this time, but will reevaluate at 20z. ...NY/PA... Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-073- 077-085-093-099-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137-145-153-155-157- 159-161-165-169-173-175-179-181-185-193-302040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON IDA JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WOODBURY NEC021-023-025-037-039-043-053-055-109-119-131-141-151-153-155- 159-167-173-177-302040- Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-073- 077-085-093-099-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137-145-153-155-157- 159-161-165-169-173-175-179-181-185-193-302040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON IDA JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WOODBURY NEC021-023-025-037-039-043-053-055-109-119-131-141-151-153-155- 159-167-173-177-302040- Read more

MD 0573 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Areas affected...parts of south central New York...northeastern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301712Z - 301945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms, possibly including a gradually organizing cluster, may pose increasing potential for marginally severe hail and wind by 2-4 PM EDT. It is still not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Downstream of remnant mid-level troughing crossing the lower Great Lakes region, modest destabilization is underway across eastern portions of the Allegheny Plateau in response to insolation. This is leading to deepening boundary layer-based convection ahead of a weak cold front now advancing southeast of Lakes Ontario and Erie, and through the upper Ohio Valley. Models suggest that large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to intensifying thunderstorm development by the 18-20Z time frame, with orographic forcing perhaps contributing to a consolidating cluster of convection across the southern tier of New York and adjacent northern Pennsylvania. Thereafter, given increasing inflow of sufficiently moist boundary-layer air to support CAPE in excess of 500 J/kg, a belt of 30-40+ kt southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to a period of increasing organization and potential for strong to marginally severe surface gusts, as activity propagates toward the Catskills and Poconos vicinity. With east-southeasterly low-level flow maintaining a relatively cool and stable boundary-layer across the northern Mid Atlantic into the the Poconos and Catskills, it appears that the potential for damaging wind gusts will rapidly diminish to the east of the higher terrain later this afternoon. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 41847727 42567612 42737478 41757482 41117574 41017655 40837723 41197754 41847727 Read more

MD 0574 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA FAR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska far northeastern Kansas...western Iowa and northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 301805Z - 301930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storm development is possible by 19-20z across parts of eastern NE and far northeast KS. Initially supercells may support a risk for all hazards. DISCUSSION...As of 1800 UTC, visible imagery showed deepening cumulus towers east of a weak surface cyclone across portions of eastern NE and northern KS. Signs of subtle forcing for ascent are beginning to overspread this regional ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough over western NE. Amidst increasing ascent and strong diurnal heating, remaining MLCINH is rapidly eroding. Observational trends and Hi-res model guidance indicate isolated storm development is possible as early as 19-20z across parts of eastern NE and far northern KS. Upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Given the potential for strong updrafts, organization into initial supercells is expected with 40-50 kt of effective shear observed on area VADs. Isolated storms will be capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts initially. Tornadoes will also be possible, especially near the warm front farther east and south, where lower cloud bases and stronger low-level shear are favored. While the initial storm mode is expected to be primarily supercellular, the surface cold front will impinge on the western warm sector later this afternoon. The increase in linear forcing and additional storm development through the afternoon suggests storm interactions may favor upscale growth into short line segments and clusters with time. While, there is some uncertainty on storm mode, a tornado watch is likely this afternoon. ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41959701 42469631 42469550 42359453 42219392 41989340 41619319 41189322 40779364 40549435 40359649 40179724 40399761 40569757 41959701 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the southern High Plains on Wednesday in response to a development of a lee cyclone, as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies. Deeply mixed profiles by the afternoon will yield single-digit relative humidity amid sustained winds 20 to 25 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. Little recent rainfall across this area has sufficiently dried fuels, with ERCs forecast to be in the 75th percentile. This will support Critical fire weather concerns, with broader Elevated fire weather concerns extending into southeastern Colorado and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the southern High Plains on Wednesday in response to a development of a lee cyclone, as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies. Deeply mixed profiles by the afternoon will yield single-digit relative humidity amid sustained winds 20 to 25 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. Little recent rainfall across this area has sufficiently dried fuels, with ERCs forecast to be in the 75th percentile. This will support Critical fire weather concerns, with broader Elevated fire weather concerns extending into southeastern Colorado and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the southern High Plains on Wednesday in response to a development of a lee cyclone, as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies. Deeply mixed profiles by the afternoon will yield single-digit relative humidity amid sustained winds 20 to 25 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. Little recent rainfall across this area has sufficiently dried fuels, with ERCs forecast to be in the 75th percentile. This will support Critical fire weather concerns, with broader Elevated fire weather concerns extending into southeastern Colorado and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the southern High Plains on Wednesday in response to a development of a lee cyclone, as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies. Deeply mixed profiles by the afternoon will yield single-digit relative humidity amid sustained winds 20 to 25 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. Little recent rainfall across this area has sufficiently dried fuels, with ERCs forecast to be in the 75th percentile. This will support Critical fire weather concerns, with broader Elevated fire weather concerns extending into southeastern Colorado and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more