SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe
thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central
Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and
northwest/west-central Texas.
...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been expanded westward somewhat to account
for a farther west position of the dryline this afternoon.
Significant wind probabilities have also been added across parts of
west/northwest TX, where a mix of supercell clusters and eventual
MCS development will be possible.
The influence of extensive antecedent convection remains quite
evident across parts of KS/OK, with the richest moisture currently
confined from far western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle and
northwest TX, and pockets of somewhat higher dewpoints from
southeast KS into northeast OK, and also across southwestern KS,
where somewhat stronger recovery is occurring this afternoon.
Confidence remains rather low regarding storm coverage and evolution
along the dryline, though at least isolated supercell development
will be possible late this afternoon into the evening, with a threat
of all severe hazards.
Upscale growth into one or more clusters still appears likely across
central and possibly north TX tonight, with some potential for an
organized MCS to move into southeast TX before the end of the
period. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS is also expected
to develop near the KS/NE border later tonight. While this
convection will likely remain mostly elevated, rather strong MUCAPE
will support at least an isolated threat for both hail and severe
gusts. See the previous discussion below for more information, and
MCD 589 for more information regarding the short-term threat from
southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. .
..Dean.. 05/01/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/
...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle...
Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a
remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward
through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK. It is
unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon,
or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK.
Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from
southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and
interact with the remnant boundary. Supercells capable of very
large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this
corridor through the early evening. There is a chance of a strong
tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to
increase tornado probabilities at this time.
...West TX...
Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX,
leading to scattered intense storm development. Initial discrete
supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes,
but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance,
which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward
through the evening.
...Central TX today and tonight...
A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central
TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where
sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote
organized/supercell structures. Given the abundant low-level
theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is
possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds.
Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and
track into central TX. A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind
max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of
damaging winds overnight.
...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight...
Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark
over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough. This activity will spread eastward overnight, with
sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in
the stronger cores.
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