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WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0165 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0165 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0165 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 165 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 302135Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop through the late afternoon into the early evening near and east of the dryline. Some of the stronger storms will probably become supercellular and pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts. A narrow window of time may exist for a brief tornado towards the early evening mainly over the Oklahoma portion of the Watch. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Ponca City OK to 130 miles south southwest of Altus OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 163...WW 164... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith Read more

MD 0576 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0576 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301935Z - 302130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development is probable through 4-7 PM CDT, including a few supercells with potential to produce large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and a risk for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...To the south of a strong, broadly cyclonic mid/upper jet nosing east of the Front Range, toward the the middle Missouri Valley, warm elevated mixed-layer air remains inhibitive to convective development in the presence of weak to negligible mid/upper forcing for ascent. However, where the cold front is overtaking a sharpening dryline across the Salina vicinity of north central Kansas, more notable deepening of convective development is ongoing. Aided by a corridor of stronger pre-frontal boundary-layer heating, including surface temperatures exceeding 90F along an axis across northwestern Oklahoma into the Salina vicinity, mixed-layer CAPE now appears in excess of 2000 J/kg along the sharpening dryline. With additional insolation, it appears that low-level forcing near the cold front/dryline intersection may become sufficient to support sustained thunderstorm development as early as 21-22Z. In the presence of moderate but veering flow with height in the 850-500 mb layer, vertical shear will be conducive to supercell development, at least initially, and perhaps an upscale growing line with persistent supercell development along its southern flank, gradually approaching the Wichita area through early evening. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38499761 39979640 39699511 37819607 36929748 37309836 38499761 Read more

MD 0575 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern South Dakota...Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301929Z - 302130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms over eastern SD may grow upscale into a more organized line/cluster with time. Damaging winds and hail are possible, but the coverage and severity are uncertain. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Ahead of the advancing shortwave trough, thunderstorms have initiated along a pre-frontal trough/convergence zone across parts of eastern SD and northeastern NE. North of a modifying outflow boundary/effective warm front, the air mass has slowly moistened and warmed into the low 60s F. While not overly unstable, heating through scattered cloud breaks and further moistening will continue to allow for destabilization with SPC mesoanalysis showing ~500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Effective straight-line hodographs will favor a linear/cluster mode with further upscale growth from storm interactions likely. Given the storm mode and modest buoyancy, damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. However, occasional hail and a brief tornado will also be possible with any embedded supercell/bowing structures able to develop. Buoyancy decreases farther east indicating some uncertainty on the coverage and timing of the severe risk. Still, mesoscale trends suggest further destabilization is likely and a downstream severe risk may develop. With this in mind, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible. ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42249290 42419701 42539722 43629719 44289665 44089414 43779337 43299248 43179231 42969236 42399253 42309263 42249290 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the southern High Plains. ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for Day8/Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BIE TO 10 SE BIE TO 25 ESE LNK TO 25 W OMA TO 15 WSW TQE TO 20 SSW SUX TO 30 WNW SUX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578 ..LYONS..04/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-073- 077-085-093-099-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137-145-153-155-157- 159-161-165-169-173-175-179-181-185-193-302240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON IDA JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WOODBURY Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BIE TO 10 SE BIE TO 25 ESE LNK TO 25 W OMA TO 15 WSW TQE TO 20 SSW SUX TO 30 WNW SUX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578 ..LYONS..04/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-073- 077-085-093-099-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137-145-153-155-157- 159-161-165-169-173-175-179-181-185-193-302240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON IDA JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WOODBURY Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BIE TO 10 SE BIE TO 25 ESE LNK TO 25 W OMA TO 15 WSW TQE TO 20 SSW SUX TO 30 WNW SUX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578 ..LYONS..04/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-073- 077-085-093-099-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137-145-153-155-157- 159-161-165-169-173-175-179-181-185-193-302240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BOONE CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON IDA JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY STORY TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WOODBURY Read more

WW 163 TORNADO IA NE 301835Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Western Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over eastern Nebraska and track eastward across the watch area through the evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Lincoln NE to 35 miles east of Knoxville IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more