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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0614 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...The high plains of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado...extreme southwest Kansas...western Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031919Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop over the high plains of southeastern CO and northeastern NM through this afternoon. Hail near 1-1.25 inches in diameter, wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph, and perhaps a landspout or two will be possible. DISCUSSION...Surface mass/moisture convergence and insolation has increased near the Raton Mesa this afternoon leading to the development of moist convection. This area is also beneath the right entrance region of a mid level jet max now progressing ENE over northwestern KS. Both recent visible satellite imagery and radar indicate a few stronger updrafts continue to persist on the NM side, where moisture advection has led to dewpoints increasing into the upper 40s to low 50s. The environment is also characterized by increasing MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kts. Although not particularly favorable for supercell development, this environment could support a few organized updrafts capable of marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts. The latter may be especially true across CO where inverted V profiles will persist longer. In addition, low level CAPE is also increasing across this region and should expand northward over the next 1-2 hours, aiding in enhanced stretching which could support a landspout or two. ..Barnes/Squitieri/Smith.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37030152 36590257 35920413 35890511 36480522 36980498 37960478 38500375 38540260 38290186 37860143 37490140 37030152 Read more

WW 0178 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 178 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/03/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 178 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC033-049-059-081-083-095-107-115-125-151-153-169-173-189-207- 219-227-235-253-263-279-303-305-307-335-353-399-415-417-431-433- 441-445-451-032140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS FISHER FLOYD GARZA GLASSCOCK HALE HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD IRION JONES KENT LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MCCULLOCH MITCHELL NOLAN RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0179 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0613 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 031818Z - 032015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development, including a couple of evolving supercells, appears increasingly probable through 2-4 PM CDT. Strongest storms may eventually become capable of producing large hail in excess of 3 inches in diameter, and perhaps potential for a tornado. DISCUSSION...Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath steep lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air is allowing for the development of strong to extreme potential instability with full insolation. During the next few hours this will become focused along a zone of strengthening differential surface heating and mixing, where an initial cold frontal surge into the Texas South Plains has stalled and is weakening, and along a sharpening dryline south of this boundary into the Davis Mountains vicinity. Mid/upper support for convective development is unclear, but west to southwesterly flow aloft appears to be trending at least broadly difluent, as initially weak low-level warm advection becomes a bit more enhanced along the boundaries. The Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, among other output, suggest that the initiation of isolated to widely scattered storms may commence as early as 19-21Z, as convective temperatures are approached. Lower through mid-level wind fields are at least initially rather weak, but veering with height beneath 20-40 kt flow in the 500-300 mb layer seems likely to be supportive of the evolution of intense supercell structures given the instability. Tornadic potential appears a bit more unclear, but in the presence of light to modest southwesterly deep layer mean flow, rightward propagating storms along the segment of strengthening differential heating roughly near/north of Big Spring into areas west of Abilene may pose the most appreciable risk. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31909934 31220098 30610136 29930172 29780198 29640274 30990296 31900244 33200179 32849974 31909934 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more