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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH NE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts are possible over parts of west to central Texas through this evening. Scattered severe wind and hail are also possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Across parts of west to central TX, initial supercell development is underway along the I-20 corridor between MAF/ABI. Despite modest lower-level shear, the large buoyancy and favorable elongation of the mid to upper portion of the hodograph should foster a few intense supercells. While left-splits will move northeast, slow-moving right-movers should progress south-southeast towards the Concho Valley per recent WoFS and early afternoon CAM guidance. Giant hail will be the primary threat with some upscale clustering into the evening promoting potential for significant severe wind gusts as well. Given the relative early initiation this afternoon relative to the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet, have refrained from higher tornado probabilities, although a sub-10% strong tornado risk remains evident. Across the south-central High Plains into southern NE, buoyancy recovery is well underway ahead of the lower-amplitude shortwave impulse cross the southern WY/northern CO portion of the Rockies. Primary change with this outlook is to increase the areal extent of the cat 2-SLGT risk somewhat to the east and south. This is driven by higher confidence in strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompanying multiple potential clusters and QLCSs evolving east from ongoing convection from the NE Panhandle to the Raton Mesa. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for parts of southwest to central New Mexico for Saturday afternoon. The general forecast evolution outlined in the previous discussion remains on track, though latest high-res ensemble guidance has shown a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southwest to central NM (the probability for winds over 15 mph is generally 60%+ for most locations). These conditions appear most probable during the 20-23 UTC period along ridge tops within the Gila region and along the I-25 corridor. While the driest fuel conditions appear to be across south-central NM, fuel analyses suggests ERCs over the region vary between the 60-90th percentiles. These values are corroborated by recent small wildfire activity, which suggests that fuels are adequately dry to support fire weather concerns. Further west across the southern Great Basin, strengthening winds combined with dry conditions will support widespread elevated fire weather conditions. However, fuel guidance suggests ERCs are near to below seasonal values, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy. Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for parts of southwest to central New Mexico for Saturday afternoon. The general forecast evolution outlined in the previous discussion remains on track, though latest high-res ensemble guidance has shown a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southwest to central NM (the probability for winds over 15 mph is generally 60%+ for most locations). These conditions appear most probable during the 20-23 UTC period along ridge tops within the Gila region and along the I-25 corridor. While the driest fuel conditions appear to be across south-central NM, fuel analyses suggests ERCs over the region vary between the 60-90th percentiles. These values are corroborated by recent small wildfire activity, which suggests that fuels are adequately dry to support fire weather concerns. Further west across the southern Great Basin, strengthening winds combined with dry conditions will support widespread elevated fire weather conditions. However, fuel guidance suggests ERCs are near to below seasonal values, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy. Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for parts of southwest to central New Mexico for Saturday afternoon. The general forecast evolution outlined in the previous discussion remains on track, though latest high-res ensemble guidance has shown a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southwest to central NM (the probability for winds over 15 mph is generally 60%+ for most locations). These conditions appear most probable during the 20-23 UTC period along ridge tops within the Gila region and along the I-25 corridor. While the driest fuel conditions appear to be across south-central NM, fuel analyses suggests ERCs over the region vary between the 60-90th percentiles. These values are corroborated by recent small wildfire activity, which suggests that fuels are adequately dry to support fire weather concerns. Further west across the southern Great Basin, strengthening winds combined with dry conditions will support widespread elevated fire weather conditions. However, fuel guidance suggests ERCs are near to below seasonal values, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy. Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more