Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from far southeast Texas into much of Louisiana, central/southern Mississippi, and western Alabama on Friday. ...East/Southeast TX and Southeast OK through the Lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Lower MO Valley southwestward through central OK and Far West TX and into northeast Mexico early Friday morning. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft will likely extend through the base of this shortwave, from northeast Mexico through east/southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley/Southeast. This belt of stronger flow will persist throughout much of the day as its parent shortwave trough shifts eastward/northeastward. Surface pattern preceding this shortwave will be significantly more uncertain, largely resulting from uncertainty related to the timing and strength of an early morning MCS forecast to move from the Lower MS Valley across the central/southern MS and AL. This MCS will likely lead an outflow boundary in its wake, which could then return northward throughout the day amid modest low-level moisture advection. This scenario is supported by much of the guidance. However, if/when any development occurs along and south of this boundary during the afternoon/evening is less clear, likely a result of poor synoptic support and predominantly mesoscale factors contributing to additional initiation. Strong buoyancy and shear suggest that any storms that do develop should quickly become severe, with large to very large hail as the primary threat. Weak low-level flow should keep the tornado threat low, but still non-zero given the likely supercell mode. Height falls should reach the Lower MS Valley late Friday night/early Saturday morning, with around round of thunderstorms likely given that earlier activity is unlikely to overturn the airmass. These storms could evolve into a convective line that would then track quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern Rockies on Friday, reaching the northern High Plains by early Saturday morning. An attendant surface low will move eastward just ahead of the shortwave, moving across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Surface lee troughing will sharpen ahead of the shortwave trough as well, with cyclogenesis anticipated across western SD by the late afternoon. A cold front will extend between these two surface lows, progressing eastward/southeastward across the Dakotas and into western MN from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Buoyancy ahead of this cold front will be modest, supported predominantly by cool mid-level temperatures atop a warm and deeply mixed boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front, with strong outflow possible. Upscale growth is anticipated, as amalgamation of storm outflows occurs quickly. Strengthening westerly flow aloft will foster fast storm motion and the potential for some damaging wind gusts as the convective line moves eastward across the Dakotas. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from far southeast Texas into much of Louisiana, central/southern Mississippi, and western Alabama on Friday. ...East/Southeast TX and Southeast OK through the Lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Lower MO Valley southwestward through central OK and Far West TX and into northeast Mexico early Friday morning. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft will likely extend through the base of this shortwave, from northeast Mexico through east/southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley/Southeast. This belt of stronger flow will persist throughout much of the day as its parent shortwave trough shifts eastward/northeastward. Surface pattern preceding this shortwave will be significantly more uncertain, largely resulting from uncertainty related to the timing and strength of an early morning MCS forecast to move from the Lower MS Valley across the central/southern MS and AL. This MCS will likely lead an outflow boundary in its wake, which could then return northward throughout the day amid modest low-level moisture advection. This scenario is supported by much of the guidance. However, if/when any development occurs along and south of this boundary during the afternoon/evening is less clear, likely a result of poor synoptic support and predominantly mesoscale factors contributing to additional initiation. Strong buoyancy and shear suggest that any storms that do develop should quickly become severe, with large to very large hail as the primary threat. Weak low-level flow should keep the tornado threat low, but still non-zero given the likely supercell mode. Height falls should reach the Lower MS Valley late Friday night/early Saturday morning, with around round of thunderstorms likely given that earlier activity is unlikely to overturn the airmass. These storms could evolve into a convective line that would then track quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern Rockies on Friday, reaching the northern High Plains by early Saturday morning. An attendant surface low will move eastward just ahead of the shortwave, moving across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Surface lee troughing will sharpen ahead of the shortwave trough as well, with cyclogenesis anticipated across western SD by the late afternoon. A cold front will extend between these two surface lows, progressing eastward/southeastward across the Dakotas and into western MN from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Buoyancy ahead of this cold front will be modest, supported predominantly by cool mid-level temperatures atop a warm and deeply mixed boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front, with strong outflow possible. Upscale growth is anticipated, as amalgamation of storm outflows occurs quickly. Strengthening westerly flow aloft will foster fast storm motion and the potential for some damaging wind gusts as the convective line moves eastward across the Dakotas. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from far southeast Texas into much of Louisiana, central/southern Mississippi, and western Alabama on Friday. ...East/Southeast TX and Southeast OK through the Lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Lower MO Valley southwestward through central OK and Far West TX and into northeast Mexico early Friday morning. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft will likely extend through the base of this shortwave, from northeast Mexico through east/southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley/Southeast. This belt of stronger flow will persist throughout much of the day as its parent shortwave trough shifts eastward/northeastward. Surface pattern preceding this shortwave will be significantly more uncertain, largely resulting from uncertainty related to the timing and strength of an early morning MCS forecast to move from the Lower MS Valley across the central/southern MS and AL. This MCS will likely lead an outflow boundary in its wake, which could then return northward throughout the day amid modest low-level moisture advection. This scenario is supported by much of the guidance. However, if/when any development occurs along and south of this boundary during the afternoon/evening is less clear, likely a result of poor synoptic support and predominantly mesoscale factors contributing to additional initiation. Strong buoyancy and shear suggest that any storms that do develop should quickly become severe, with large to very large hail as the primary threat. Weak low-level flow should keep the tornado threat low, but still non-zero given the likely supercell mode. Height falls should reach the Lower MS Valley late Friday night/early Saturday morning, with around round of thunderstorms likely given that earlier activity is unlikely to overturn the airmass. These storms could evolve into a convective line that would then track quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern Rockies on Friday, reaching the northern High Plains by early Saturday morning. An attendant surface low will move eastward just ahead of the shortwave, moving across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Surface lee troughing will sharpen ahead of the shortwave trough as well, with cyclogenesis anticipated across western SD by the late afternoon. A cold front will extend between these two surface lows, progressing eastward/southeastward across the Dakotas and into western MN from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Buoyancy ahead of this cold front will be modest, supported predominantly by cool mid-level temperatures atop a warm and deeply mixed boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front, with strong outflow possible. Upscale growth is anticipated, as amalgamation of storm outflows occurs quickly. Strengthening westerly flow aloft will foster fast storm motion and the potential for some damaging wind gusts as the convective line moves eastward across the Dakotas. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from far southeast Texas into much of Louisiana, central/southern Mississippi, and western Alabama on Friday. ...East/Southeast TX and Southeast OK through the Lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Lower MO Valley southwestward through central OK and Far West TX and into northeast Mexico early Friday morning. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft will likely extend through the base of this shortwave, from northeast Mexico through east/southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley/Southeast. This belt of stronger flow will persist throughout much of the day as its parent shortwave trough shifts eastward/northeastward. Surface pattern preceding this shortwave will be significantly more uncertain, largely resulting from uncertainty related to the timing and strength of an early morning MCS forecast to move from the Lower MS Valley across the central/southern MS and AL. This MCS will likely lead an outflow boundary in its wake, which could then return northward throughout the day amid modest low-level moisture advection. This scenario is supported by much of the guidance. However, if/when any development occurs along and south of this boundary during the afternoon/evening is less clear, likely a result of poor synoptic support and predominantly mesoscale factors contributing to additional initiation. Strong buoyancy and shear suggest that any storms that do develop should quickly become severe, with large to very large hail as the primary threat. Weak low-level flow should keep the tornado threat low, but still non-zero given the likely supercell mode. Height falls should reach the Lower MS Valley late Friday night/early Saturday morning, with around round of thunderstorms likely given that earlier activity is unlikely to overturn the airmass. These storms could evolve into a convective line that would then track quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern Rockies on Friday, reaching the northern High Plains by early Saturday morning. An attendant surface low will move eastward just ahead of the shortwave, moving across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Surface lee troughing will sharpen ahead of the shortwave trough as well, with cyclogenesis anticipated across western SD by the late afternoon. A cold front will extend between these two surface lows, progressing eastward/southeastward across the Dakotas and into western MN from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Buoyancy ahead of this cold front will be modest, supported predominantly by cool mid-level temperatures atop a warm and deeply mixed boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front, with strong outflow possible. Upscale growth is anticipated, as amalgamation of storm outflows occurs quickly. Strengthening westerly flow aloft will foster fast storm motion and the potential for some damaging wind gusts as the convective line moves eastward across the Dakotas. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from far southeast Texas into much of Louisiana, central/southern Mississippi, and western Alabama on Friday. ...East/Southeast TX and Southeast OK through the Lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Lower MO Valley southwestward through central OK and Far West TX and into northeast Mexico early Friday morning. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft will likely extend through the base of this shortwave, from northeast Mexico through east/southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley/Southeast. This belt of stronger flow will persist throughout much of the day as its parent shortwave trough shifts eastward/northeastward. Surface pattern preceding this shortwave will be significantly more uncertain, largely resulting from uncertainty related to the timing and strength of an early morning MCS forecast to move from the Lower MS Valley across the central/southern MS and AL. This MCS will likely lead an outflow boundary in its wake, which could then return northward throughout the day amid modest low-level moisture advection. This scenario is supported by much of the guidance. However, if/when any development occurs along and south of this boundary during the afternoon/evening is less clear, likely a result of poor synoptic support and predominantly mesoscale factors contributing to additional initiation. Strong buoyancy and shear suggest that any storms that do develop should quickly become severe, with large to very large hail as the primary threat. Weak low-level flow should keep the tornado threat low, but still non-zero given the likely supercell mode. Height falls should reach the Lower MS Valley late Friday night/early Saturday morning, with around round of thunderstorms likely given that earlier activity is unlikely to overturn the airmass. These storms could evolve into a convective line that would then track quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern Rockies on Friday, reaching the northern High Plains by early Saturday morning. An attendant surface low will move eastward just ahead of the shortwave, moving across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Surface lee troughing will sharpen ahead of the shortwave trough as well, with cyclogenesis anticipated across western SD by the late afternoon. A cold front will extend between these two surface lows, progressing eastward/southeastward across the Dakotas and into western MN from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Buoyancy ahead of this cold front will be modest, supported predominantly by cool mid-level temperatures atop a warm and deeply mixed boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front, with strong outflow possible. Upscale growth is anticipated, as amalgamation of storm outflows occurs quickly. Strengthening westerly flow aloft will foster fast storm motion and the potential for some damaging wind gusts as the convective line moves eastward across the Dakotas. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms posing a risk for severe hail and wind may become fairly numerous across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve by late evening, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably high moisture content has generally become suppressed offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard through the central Gulf of Mexico and lower Rio Grande Valley, in the wake of a surface cyclone now centered offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast. The cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate away from the coast, as associated large-scale mid/upper troughing progresses east of the Atlantic Seaboard through early Friday. As this occurs, and similar magnitude mid/upper troughing (at least initially) emerges from the Southwest, low-level moisture appears likely to surge northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Models do suggest that the Southwestern trough may progress east-northeastward in somewhat piece-meal fashion, with perhaps one notable perturbation accelerating across the Permian Basin by this evening, preceded by one or two more subtle impulses. Each will tend to suppress mid/upper ridging now present across the southern Great Plains, and may be accompanied by a substantive wave of convective development. However, the details of the potential conglomerate convective evolution remain unclear, and convection allowing model output is varied. ...Texas... While the influence of early period convection and associated outflow on the low-level environment remains uncertain, model output is suggestive that a fairly well-defined lower/mid-tropospheric baroclinic zone (around 700 mb) may provide the primary focus for stronger convective development during this period. In the wake of at least one initial short wave perturbation, and in advance of the more prominent one, this will likely demarcate the northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. By late this afternoon, it is possible that a zone of differential surface heating may become better defined beneath this regime, from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. Along and south of this zone, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE will become large (on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg), beneath seasonably strong southwesterly upper flow. Deep-layer shear likely will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial eastward/southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by late this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms posing a risk for severe hail and wind may become fairly numerous across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve by late evening, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably high moisture content has generally become suppressed offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard through the central Gulf of Mexico and lower Rio Grande Valley, in the wake of a surface cyclone now centered offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast. The cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate away from the coast, as associated large-scale mid/upper troughing progresses east of the Atlantic Seaboard through early Friday. As this occurs, and similar magnitude mid/upper troughing (at least initially) emerges from the Southwest, low-level moisture appears likely to surge northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Models do suggest that the Southwestern trough may progress east-northeastward in somewhat piece-meal fashion, with perhaps one notable perturbation accelerating across the Permian Basin by this evening, preceded by one or two more subtle impulses. Each will tend to suppress mid/upper ridging now present across the southern Great Plains, and may be accompanied by a substantive wave of convective development. However, the details of the potential conglomerate convective evolution remain unclear, and convection allowing model output is varied. ...Texas... While the influence of early period convection and associated outflow on the low-level environment remains uncertain, model output is suggestive that a fairly well-defined lower/mid-tropospheric baroclinic zone (around 700 mb) may provide the primary focus for stronger convective development during this period. In the wake of at least one initial short wave perturbation, and in advance of the more prominent one, this will likely demarcate the northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. By late this afternoon, it is possible that a zone of differential surface heating may become better defined beneath this regime, from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. Along and south of this zone, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE will become large (on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg), beneath seasonably strong southwesterly upper flow. Deep-layer shear likely will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial eastward/southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by late this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms posing a risk for severe hail and wind may become fairly numerous across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve by late evening, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably high moisture content has generally become suppressed offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard through the central Gulf of Mexico and lower Rio Grande Valley, in the wake of a surface cyclone now centered offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast. The cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate away from the coast, as associated large-scale mid/upper troughing progresses east of the Atlantic Seaboard through early Friday. As this occurs, and similar magnitude mid/upper troughing (at least initially) emerges from the Southwest, low-level moisture appears likely to surge northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Models do suggest that the Southwestern trough may progress east-northeastward in somewhat piece-meal fashion, with perhaps one notable perturbation accelerating across the Permian Basin by this evening, preceded by one or two more subtle impulses. Each will tend to suppress mid/upper ridging now present across the southern Great Plains, and may be accompanied by a substantive wave of convective development. However, the details of the potential conglomerate convective evolution remain unclear, and convection allowing model output is varied. ...Texas... While the influence of early period convection and associated outflow on the low-level environment remains uncertain, model output is suggestive that a fairly well-defined lower/mid-tropospheric baroclinic zone (around 700 mb) may provide the primary focus for stronger convective development during this period. In the wake of at least one initial short wave perturbation, and in advance of the more prominent one, this will likely demarcate the northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. By late this afternoon, it is possible that a zone of differential surface heating may become better defined beneath this regime, from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. Along and south of this zone, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE will become large (on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg), beneath seasonably strong southwesterly upper flow. Deep-layer shear likely will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial eastward/southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by late this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms posing a risk for severe hail and wind may become fairly numerous across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve by late evening, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably high moisture content has generally become suppressed offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard through the central Gulf of Mexico and lower Rio Grande Valley, in the wake of a surface cyclone now centered offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast. The cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate away from the coast, as associated large-scale mid/upper troughing progresses east of the Atlantic Seaboard through early Friday. As this occurs, and similar magnitude mid/upper troughing (at least initially) emerges from the Southwest, low-level moisture appears likely to surge northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Models do suggest that the Southwestern trough may progress east-northeastward in somewhat piece-meal fashion, with perhaps one notable perturbation accelerating across the Permian Basin by this evening, preceded by one or two more subtle impulses. Each will tend to suppress mid/upper ridging now present across the southern Great Plains, and may be accompanied by a substantive wave of convective development. However, the details of the potential conglomerate convective evolution remain unclear, and convection allowing model output is varied. ...Texas... While the influence of early period convection and associated outflow on the low-level environment remains uncertain, model output is suggestive that a fairly well-defined lower/mid-tropospheric baroclinic zone (around 700 mb) may provide the primary focus for stronger convective development during this period. In the wake of at least one initial short wave perturbation, and in advance of the more prominent one, this will likely demarcate the northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. By late this afternoon, it is possible that a zone of differential surface heating may become better defined beneath this regime, from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. Along and south of this zone, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE will become large (on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg), beneath seasonably strong southwesterly upper flow. Deep-layer shear likely will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial eastward/southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by late this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms posing a risk for severe hail and wind may become fairly numerous across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve by late evening, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably high moisture content has generally become suppressed offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard through the central Gulf of Mexico and lower Rio Grande Valley, in the wake of a surface cyclone now centered offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast. The cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate away from the coast, as associated large-scale mid/upper troughing progresses east of the Atlantic Seaboard through early Friday. As this occurs, and similar magnitude mid/upper troughing (at least initially) emerges from the Southwest, low-level moisture appears likely to surge northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Models do suggest that the Southwestern trough may progress east-northeastward in somewhat piece-meal fashion, with perhaps one notable perturbation accelerating across the Permian Basin by this evening, preceded by one or two more subtle impulses. Each will tend to suppress mid/upper ridging now present across the southern Great Plains, and may be accompanied by a substantive wave of convective development. However, the details of the potential conglomerate convective evolution remain unclear, and convection allowing model output is varied. ...Texas... While the influence of early period convection and associated outflow on the low-level environment remains uncertain, model output is suggestive that a fairly well-defined lower/mid-tropospheric baroclinic zone (around 700 mb) may provide the primary focus for stronger convective development during this period. In the wake of at least one initial short wave perturbation, and in advance of the more prominent one, this will likely demarcate the northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. By late this afternoon, it is possible that a zone of differential surface heating may become better defined beneath this regime, from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. Along and south of this zone, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE will become large (on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg), beneath seasonably strong southwesterly upper flow. Deep-layer shear likely will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial eastward/southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by late this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 Read more

Without a sugar mill in Texas, a Hidalgo County sugar grower destroyed 500 acres of sugarcane. For lack of water, he planted just a fraction of the other crops that he typically cultivates. His row crops are entirely flood irrigated. The cotton was stunted by extreme drought conditions. The sorghum grain has shallow roots and was not doing well. “Complete lack of irrigation water for crop production in the Lower Rio Grande Valley would cost $495.8 million in direct revenue loss, Texas A&M University has calculated.” FOX Weather (New York), May 15, 2024

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple of days.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves
slowly to the west-northwest or west, remaining south of the
coast of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Huy Fong Foods told its wholesale buyers that it will halt Sriracha production until after Labor Day because its crop of red jalapeño peppers is not the right shade to produce the rooster sauce. An assessment of the chili supply revealed that it was too green for use in production because it affects the color of the product. All orders scheduled beginning on May 6, 2024, will be canceled and the status changed to pending. The Washington Post (D.C.), May 8, 2024

Drought has left Lake Ahquabi very low, which has hurt area businesses that rely on the lake. The lake was closed for renovations and dredging from 2021 to 2023. When the lake reopened in July 2023, the lake was at least 10 feet below normal. Kayakers and canoers had to drag boats a significant distance, which was not feasible. The swimming beach remained closed on account of low water levels. As of May 9, Lake Ahquabi was five feet below normal, which allowed canoers and kayakers to launch their boats. The water level remained too low for motorized boats to leave the docks. The park concessionaire outfitter was not able to open in 2023 and depended on business at its Indianola retail store and Raccoon River Park rentals in West Des Moines. The business has been closed for three years for renovations, dredging and drought. Axios Des Moines (Iowa), May 13, 2024

MD 0788 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL FL INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0788 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Areas affected...Parts of north/central FL into extreme southeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150545Z - 150745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible overnight, with some threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing early this morning across parts of north FL, in the vicinity of a diffuse low-level baroclinic zone and in the immediate wake of an MCV that has just moved offshore of northeast FL. While there has been some cooling through the evening, the environment sampled by the 00Z TBW sounding largely remains in place across parts of central/northern FL, with moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear supporting a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection, including the potential for supercells. The evolution of convection remains somewhat uncertain across the FL Peninsula overnight, but in general, an increase in storm coverage is expected with time. Initial development may continue to be focused across the northern FL, in closer proximity to the primary baroclinic zone, with some increase possible toward central FL by later this morning. Large hail and locally damaging wind will be possible, if any more organized cells/clusters can be sustained. Also, while there will be some lingering low-level stability overnight, a tornado cannot be ruled out if a stronger supercell can persist, especially in areas where richer low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 70s F) is in place. The need for short-term watch issuance is uncertain, but will become increasingly possible with time overnight. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 27958272 28258303 29768355 30348303 30818188 30688135 30418130 29818096 29698091 29028065 28418078 28418086 27958272 Read more

WW 0243 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0243 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 243 TORNADO FL CW 150645Z - 151500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning from 245 AM until 1100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms including supercells are expected to develop through the predawn hours, especially across the north-central Florida Peninsula. The severe risk/tornado potential may further increase toward and beyond sunrise across broader portions of the central Peninsula. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Saint Petersburg FL to 20 miles east of Daytona Beach FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas South Plains across north/central Texas and into east/southeast Texas on Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow will likely exist throughout the base of this trough, spreading eastward across TX and into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the wave. Surface pattern preceding this shortwave trough could be complicated by antecedent precipitation and associated outflow, but the general expectation is for a weak cold front to extend from southeast KS southwestward across central OK and the TX South Plains to another surface low over the TX Trans-Pecos. A warm front is expected to extend southeastward for this low, separating the upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints across south TX and the TX Coastal Plains from the lower 60s dewpoints from west/southwest TX into the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development appears likely along and north of the warm front by the early afternoon, supported by moderate warm-air advection across the warm sector. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest of these storms. Persistence of these showers and thunderstorms should preclude the warm front from making substantial northward progress, with the boundary likely sharpening throughout the morning and into the afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated within the warm sector, with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of central TX/TX Hill Country by the early afternoon and into southwest TX by the late afternoon. This ample low-level moisture will result in strong buoyancy throughout the warm sector. Strengthening mid-level flow is also anticipated, with the resulting environment capable of severe thunderstorms. Initiation appears most likely in the vicinity of the surface low across southwest TX, with some chance for additional storms near a secondary surface low over the TX Big Country as well as along the boundary between these two features. A supercellular mode is probable, with strong and organized updrafts capable of producing large to very large hail, strong gusts, and a tornado or two. Late afternoon development is also possible across southeast NM, supported by the approaching shortwave trough. Hail and damaging gust are the main threats with these storms. Some eventual upscale growth is possible amid both cold pool amalgamation and increasing large-scale ascent. The resulting convective line would likely move across north/central TX with a attendant threat for damaging gusts. Warm-air advection may also result in the development of thunderstorms across southeast TX. There is some chance these storms begin developing far enough within the warm sector to still be surface-based once they mature. This would result in secondary corridor with slightly higher tornado potential. However, this is a low predictability scenario, which precludes the need for higher probabilities with this outlook. ...Mid MS Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the region early Thursday morning before continuing northeastward and weakening. Heating in the wake of this early morning activity is expected to result in limited convective inhibition and moderate buoyancy by the afternoon. Convergence along a weak cold front and associated frontal low may result in thunderstorm development. An outflow boundary from the morning storms may also exist, providing another area for low-level convergence and storm initiation. Moderate westerly flow aloft could support a few stronger storms capable of large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 05/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas South Plains across north/central Texas and into east/southeast Texas on Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow will likely exist throughout the base of this trough, spreading eastward across TX and into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the wave. Surface pattern preceding this shortwave trough could be complicated by antecedent precipitation and associated outflow, but the general expectation is for a weak cold front to extend from southeast KS southwestward across central OK and the TX South Plains to another surface low over the TX Trans-Pecos. A warm front is expected to extend southeastward for this low, separating the upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints across south TX and the TX Coastal Plains from the lower 60s dewpoints from west/southwest TX into the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development appears likely along and north of the warm front by the early afternoon, supported by moderate warm-air advection across the warm sector. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest of these storms. Persistence of these showers and thunderstorms should preclude the warm front from making substantial northward progress, with the boundary likely sharpening throughout the morning and into the afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated within the warm sector, with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of central TX/TX Hill Country by the early afternoon and into southwest TX by the late afternoon. This ample low-level moisture will result in strong buoyancy throughout the warm sector. Strengthening mid-level flow is also anticipated, with the resulting environment capable of severe thunderstorms. Initiation appears most likely in the vicinity of the surface low across southwest TX, with some chance for additional storms near a secondary surface low over the TX Big Country as well as along the boundary between these two features. A supercellular mode is probable, with strong and organized updrafts capable of producing large to very large hail, strong gusts, and a tornado or two. Late afternoon development is also possible across southeast NM, supported by the approaching shortwave trough. Hail and damaging gust are the main threats with these storms. Some eventual upscale growth is possible amid both cold pool amalgamation and increasing large-scale ascent. The resulting convective line would likely move across north/central TX with a attendant threat for damaging gusts. Warm-air advection may also result in the development of thunderstorms across southeast TX. There is some chance these storms begin developing far enough within the warm sector to still be surface-based once they mature. This would result in secondary corridor with slightly higher tornado potential. However, this is a low predictability scenario, which precludes the need for higher probabilities with this outlook. ...Mid MS Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the region early Thursday morning before continuing northeastward and weakening. Heating in the wake of this early morning activity is expected to result in limited convective inhibition and moderate buoyancy by the afternoon. Convergence along a weak cold front and associated frontal low may result in thunderstorm development. An outflow boundary from the morning storms may also exist, providing another area for low-level convergence and storm initiation. Moderate westerly flow aloft could support a few stronger storms capable of large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 05/15/2024 Read more