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WW 0250 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0250 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0250 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0250 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0249 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0249 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0249 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...2000Z Update... A surface low will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies over the High Plains of southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming Friday in association with an approaching mid-level trough. The resulting pressure gradient will support breezy westerly sustained surface winds around 20 to 30 mph from central Montana into Idaho and southwest Wyoming. There's still some disagreement on how low RH will drop across northeast Idaho and far western/southwestern Wyoming, as mentioned in the previous forecast. Regardless, recent rainfall over this region and relatively low fuel receptiveness will limit the overall fire spread threat. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more