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WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MBG TO 50 NW JMS. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-180240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MBG TO 50 NW JMS. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-180240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MBG TO 50 NW JMS. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-180240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MBG TO 50 NW JMS. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-180240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 253 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD 171930Z - 180200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana Western and Central North Dakota Northwest South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop and spread across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles northwest of Miles City MT to 80 miles northeast of Bismarck ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

MD 0818 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0818 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Areas affected...The Florida Peninsula into northern florida and southeast Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172317Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for a potential watch extension of watch 254 or a new watch. DISCUSSION...The cluster of storms near the Alabama/Florida border has now mostly weakened with one primary large supercell on the leading edge the only remaining threat. However, the environment ahead of this supercell has continued to destabilize and recently the storm has started to turn southeast. The 2230Z WoFS has the greatest 0-2km UH probabilities into Gadsden county later this evening. Therefore, if it appears the storm will maintain intensity south of the current watch area, an areal extension of the watch may be needed. In addition, there has been some intensification to the storms moving across central Georgia as low-level moisture increases ahead of the storms. This may maintain some severe weather threat to the Atlantic coast which could necessitate a new tornado watch. If this appears likely, a new watch may need to be issued. Storm trends will be monitored and watch/extension decisions will be made shortly. ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30338573 30718494 30718410 30778368 31168309 31458272 31398174 31098139 30618182 30148341 30108397 30038433 29928484 30058528 30338573 Read more

WW 0255 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 255 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N BIS TO 40 SSW DVL TO 25 SE DVL TO 55 WNW HCO. ..DEAN..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 255 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC027-069-089-107-113-119-125-135-180140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY KITTSON MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU NDC003-017-021-031-035-039-045-047-051-063-067-073-081-091-093- 097-099-180140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH NELSON PEMBINA RANSOM SARGENT STEELE STUTSMAN TRAILL WALSH SDC013-021-031-045-089-129-180140- Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE GCC TO 30 WNW Y22 TO 45 SSW DVL. ..DEAN..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-085-180140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER SIOUX SDC019-063-105-180140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE HARDING PERKINS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more