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WW 241 TORNADO FL GA CW 141025Z - 141700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 241 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 625 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Florida Southeast Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 625 AM until 100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms expected to further develop and intensity across the region as they generally spread east-northeastward through the morning, with damaging wind potential and a tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Gainesville FL to 15 miles north northeast of St Augustine FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 240... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW CTY TO 20 W OCF TO 20 SSE GNV TO 30 SSW SGJ TO 20 NE SGJ. ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-035-053-083-109-119-141540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS FLAGLER HERNANDO MARION ST. JOHNS SUMTER AMZ454-GMZ850-141540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0780 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 241... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0780 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/north FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 241... Valid 141243Z - 141415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 241 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing storms across north Florida could pose a threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. A storm cluster could move into parts of central/north Florida later this morning, which would also pose some severe risk. DISCUSSION...Generally disorganized storms are ongoing this morning across north FL. Despite moderate buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear (as noted in the 12Z JAX sounding), these storms have struggled to mature, potentially due to generally modest large-scale ascent and rather warm temperatures aloft. Some diurnal heating is underway to the east and south of these storms, which will aid in further destabilization and may aid in the development of a couple stronger cells or clusters through mid morning, which would pose a threat for damaging wind and a tornado. Farther west, a storm cluster is moving rather quickly eastward across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. With a rather favorable downstream environment, there is some potential for this cluster to propagate along an outflow-reinforced surface front and potentially reach west-central FL later this morning, with a renewed threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two. However, with some residual capping noted on the 12Z TBW sounding, the longevity of this cluster remains somewhat uncertain. Depending on how this cluster evolves as it approaches the coast, there is some potential for new WW issuance later this morning. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28278350 28898289 29838232 30238210 30528189 30678161 30478118 29728091 28918074 27648102 27248137 27078220 27188271 27648302 28278350 Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CTY TO 25 ENE GNV TO 15 NNW SGJ TO 40 E JAX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780 ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-035-053-075-083-107-109-119-141440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS FLAGLER HERNANDO LEVY MARION PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER AMZ452-454-GMZ850-141440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

MD 0779 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 241... FOR SOUTHEAST GA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0779 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Southeast GA into extreme southern SC Concerning...Tornado Watch 241... Valid 141134Z - 141300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 241 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind will spread northeastward this morning. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized storm cluster is moving quickly northeastward across southeast GA this morning, with rather strong winds noted not far above the surface from the KVAX radar. Unidirectional southwesterly flow aloft (as noted on the KVAX VWP) and weak to moderate downstream buoyancy may support maintenance of this storm cluster as it moves across southeast GA this morning. While lingering near-surface stability may temper the threat to some extent, some threat for isolated damaging wind may spread northeastward out of WW 241. The longevity of this cluster this morning remains uncertain, but trends will be monitored regarding the need for downstream watch issuance. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 31458295 31828245 32268174 32588115 32418070 32098068 31598106 31398125 30628215 30498246 30798253 31048266 31458295 Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780 ..DEAN..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-047-053-075-083-089-107- 109-119-121-125-141340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION GAC005-025-039-049-065-101-127-229-299-305-141340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACON BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN PIERCE WARE WAYNE Read more

MD 0778 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 240... FOR NORTH FL INTO SOUTH GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0778 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...North FL into south GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 240... Valid 140958Z - 141130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 240 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind may spread farther into south Georgia and north Florida this morning. DISCUSSION...A band of convection that earlier developed along the periphery of a weakening MCS is now moving eastward, to the east of the Tallahassee area. While this convection is rather vigorous, with some cooling cloud tops noted in IR imagery, it remains rather disorganized at this time. However, with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear across the region, further organization of this convective band remains possible with time. If this occurs, some threat for damaging wind will spread farther into south GA and north FL, especially if the convective band can merge with new convection that has recently developed to its immediate south and southeast. The need for short-term watch issuance downstream of WW 240 remains uncertain, and will depend on short-term trends regarding intensity and organization of the ongoing cluster. Potential remains for an upstream cluster of storms (currently over the north-central Gulf of Mexico) to eventually move across the area later this morning, which could also pose a severe risk. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29948200 29318238 28848281 28658364 28668411 28848445 29588393 30368388 30768400 30968328 31078237 30758186 29948200 Read more