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MD 0836 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260... FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0836 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Southwest into Central Kansas...northeast Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260... Valid 192051Z - 192245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for very-large hail, significant wind gusts, and tornadoes will continue into the evening. DISCUSSION...The greatest tornado risk within WW 260 exists near Russell, KS. There was a recent report of a tornado west of Russell at 2027Z. The environment downstream of this storm should remain favorable for very-large hail (severe 2+ in. reports are associated with this storm over the past 90 minutes), severe wind gusts (71 kts measured at KRSL), and tornadoes. The surface observation at Salina shows 91/60, which would suggest some reduction in low-level RH. The eastern extent of the tornado threat with this storm is the main uncertainty. Farther west, a cluster of high-based thunderstorms continues into western Kansas. This activity has the potential to become more intense/organized as it encounters low/mid 60s F dewpoints farther east. Most guidance has been insistent on this activity becoming a bowing segment with the potential for significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. Storms moving out of the Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma have so far struggled to maintain intensity, most likely due to limited moisture. As with storms to the north, intensification/organization is possible as greater low-level moisture is ingested. With these storms remaining more discrete, a tornado threat is still possible, particularly as the low-level jet increases this evening. ..Wendt.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 35639976 35930068 36720193 38230200 39069985 39519820 39369673 38359647 37189749 35829882 35639976 Read more

WW 0260 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 260 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-017-025-027-029-033-041-047-051-053-055-057-061- 063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-113- 115-119-123-127-129-135-141-143-145-151-155-159-161-163-165-167- 169-171-173-175-185-187-189-191-195-203-192340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CHASE CLARK CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GEARY GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HARPER HARVEY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION MEADE MITCHELL MORRIS MORTON NESS OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SCOTT SEDGWICK SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS Read more

WW 0260 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 260 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-017-025-027-029-033-041-047-051-053-055-057-061- 063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-113- 115-119-123-127-129-135-141-143-145-151-155-159-161-163-165-167- 169-171-173-175-185-187-189-191-195-203-192340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CHASE CLARK CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GEARY GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HARPER HARVEY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION MEADE MITCHELL MORRIS MORTON NESS OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SCOTT SEDGWICK SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S AGR TO 55 ENE PBI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838 ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-086-099-192240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD MIAMI-DADE PALM BEACH AMZ610-630-650-651-192240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S AGR TO 55 ENE PBI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838 ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-086-099-192240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD MIAMI-DADE PALM BEACH AMZ610-630-650-651-192240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S AGR TO 55 ENE PBI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838 ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-086-099-192240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD MIAMI-DADE PALM BEACH AMZ610-630-650-651-192240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 258 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 191655Z - 192300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 258 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a cold front over central Florida. Other storms will focus along the sea-breeze this afternoon. A few of the storms will pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northwest of Vero Beach FL to 15 miles southeast of Miami FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S AGR TO 55 ENE PBI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838 ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-086-099-192240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD MIAMI-DADE PALM BEACH AMZ610-630-650-651-192240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S AGR TO 55 ENE PBI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838 ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-086-099-192240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD MIAMI-DADE PALM BEACH AMZ610-630-650-651-192240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0835 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259... FOR WESTERN NE...SOUTHWEST SD...EXTREME NORTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 0835 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Western NE...Southwest SD...extreme northeast CO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259... Valid 192050Z - 192215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for hail and severe gusts should increase into late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity across the NE Panhandle into northeast CO this afternoon, with some increase also recently noted into southwest SD and extreme west-central WY. Sufficient deep-layer shear (effective shear of 40+ kt) and steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to support a hail threat with ongoing discrete cells from northeast CO into the NE Panhandle, with some additional discrete cell development possible into southwest SD. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out with any sustained supercell, especially over northeast CO where multiple surface boundaries are in place. With time, some clustering of storms will be possible as outflows consolidate, leading to an increase in severe-wind potential late this afternoon into early evening, especially in areas where stronger heating and deeper mixing have occurred this afternoon. ..Dean.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40740324 43990406 44610280 44640193 44230119 43700104 41790122 41450130 41080139 40730149 40160196 39690332 40740324 Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S AGR TO 55 ENE PBI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838 ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-086-099-192240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD MIAMI-DADE PALM BEACH AMZ610-630-650-651-192240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 258 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 191655Z - 192300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 258 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a cold front over central Florida. Other storms will focus along the sea-breeze this afternoon. A few of the storms will pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northwest of Vero Beach FL to 15 miles southeast of Miami FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-121-192340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-105- 111-113-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-192340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS SDC007-021-031-033-041-047-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-102-103- Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-121-192340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-105- 111-113-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-192340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS SDC007-021-031-033-041-047-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-102-103- Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more