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MD 0830 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0830 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Georgia and far southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191801Z - 192000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and severe hail will remain possible through the late afternoon hours as thunderstorms spread southward into southeast Georgia. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop in the vicinity of a weak upper-level disturbance that is slowly meandering southeastwards towards the GA coast. Although a consolidated cold pool has become established at this point (based on radar velocity data and surface observations), MRMS echo top data and GOES IR imagery have shown several intense updraft pulses within the last half hour, even behind the primary outflow boundary. This thunderstorm cluster is expected to slowly push southward into southeast GA through late afternoon. Weak deep-layer wind shear (20-25 knots) downstream will continue to limit the longevity and organization of the more robust updraft pulses; however, the thermodynamic environment is favorable for strong to severe downbursts given moderate SBCAPE (2500-3000 J/kg), steep low-level lapse rates, and theta-e deficits between 25-30 K. One such downburst has already been observed in southern SC and resulted in a 68 mph wind gust. While winds of this magnitude should be fairly infrequent with these storms, damaging winds appear probable. Similarly, sporadic severe hail has been observed and will continue to be a threat given cool temperatures aloft and surface-based lifted indices between -8 to -10 K. Due to the short-lived nature of this activity, instances of severe wind/hail should be sufficiently sporadic to preclude the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 30768161 31048218 31388262 31738276 32218265 32618239 32748192 32718144 32648097 32558061 32468046 32178051 31988084 31738108 31448118 31168126 30948131 30838133 30768161 Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-121-192040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-105- 111-113-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-192040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS SDC007-021-031-033-041-047-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-102-103- Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834 ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-061-085-086-093-099-111-192040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD INDIAN RIVER MARTIN MIAMI-DADE OKEECHOBEE PALM BEACH ST. LUCIE AMZ555-610-630-650-651-192040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0260 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0260 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more