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WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW TUL TO 25 NNW JLN TO 20 ESE SZL TO 30 ESE CDJ TO 30 E LWD. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-220040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-220040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC001-009-011-015-029-039-041-043-053-057-059-077-085-089-097- 105-109-115-119-121-141-145-167-171-175-185-197-209-211-217-225- 220040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BARRY BARTON Read more

WW 278 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 211940Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Eastern Kansas Western and Central Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to rapidly develop this afternoon, initially across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, including the Kansas City Metro vicinity, with development a bit later into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Chillicothe MO to 35 miles west southwest of Fayetteville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 276...WW 277... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E LWD TO 15 NE ALO TO 35 WNW LSE TO 40 WSW EAU. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-071-073-085-131-161-187-195-220040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC005-007-011-013-017-019-031-043-045-051-055-057-061-065-087- 095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-123-135-139-157-163-171-177- 179-183-185-191-220040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DAVIS DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE FAYETTE HENRY IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LEE LINN LOUISA Read more

WW 277 TORNADO IA IL MN WI 211810Z - 220200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Iowa Northwest Illinois Southeast Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 900 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An increasingly volatile environment and very strong atmospheric winds are expected to yield an outbreak of severe storms including tornadoes and widespread damaging winds across the region through the afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Ottumwa IA to 50 miles northeast of Mankato MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 276... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0878 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 277... FOR CENTRAL IOWA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0878 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Central Iowa and far southeastern Minnesota Concerning...Tornado Watch 277... Valid 212203Z - 212330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 277 continues. SUMMARY...Long tracked supercells within a line extending north to south across central IA will continue to move eastward into an even more favorable tornadic environment. DISCUSSION...Ongoing tornadic supercells continue from Cambridge, to just east of Des Moines. The latest DMX VAD profile data indicates 0-1 km SRH around 100 m2/s2. However, just upstream the DVN VAD shows SRH is double to triple that. In addition, a corridor of higher boundary layer moisture and backed surface flow east of the current line of deep moist convection from around Olmsted County south-southeastward to Linn County suggests localized SRH should be maximized there, juxtaposed with maximum buoyancy. Therefore, the potential for long tracked, damaging tornadoes appears most likely over the next 1-2 hours as far north as extreme southeastern MN. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 40659371 41099392 42139384 42969359 43329321 44129282 44109237 43739184 43349151 42809142 42109155 41769160 41149196 40749235 40599255 40659371 Read more

An Outdoor Burning Ban has been enacted within the city limits of North Port, due to extreme drought conditions and the wildfire threat. The burn ban prohibits all outdoor fires, such as campfires, land clearing burning, and pile burns. The Sarasota County area has received just 8% of its average rainfall for this month with 9 days remaining in May and is 30% below the year-to-date average for rainfall. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index was 610. My Sun Coast (Sarasota, Fla.), May 21, 2024

801
ABPZ20 KNHC 212303
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW TUL TO 60 SSE OJC TO 5 SE CDJ TO 25 E LWD. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-212340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-212340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC001-009-011-015-029-033-039-041-043-053-057-059-077-079-083- 085-089-097-101-105-107-109-115-117-119-121-129-141-145-159-167- 171-175-185-195-197-209-211-217-225-212340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BARRY BARTON Read more

MD 0876 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 278... FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MO...WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0876 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Northeast/North-Central/Central MO...West-Central IL Concerning...Tornado Watch 278... Valid 212054Z - 212300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 278 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards is increasing and a watch may be needed within the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has recently shown increasingly agitated cumulus across north-central MO, ahead of the ongoing line of storms moving through northwest MO. This increased vertical development has occurred subsequent with the erosion of the convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis. Convective initiation is possible within this cumulus field, although there is likely still a warm layer around 800-700 mb that could inhibit updrafts somewhat. If initiation is realized, the environment is favorable for storm intensification/organization, with supercells capable of all severe hazards possible. Even if this early initiation is not realized, the ongoing storms are expected to maintain their intensity as they move into northwest MO around 23Z. A downstream watch will likely be needed over portions of the region to address the increasing potential for severe thunderstorms. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... LAT...LON 39779339 40459286 40379062 39619032 38989102 38899323 39779339 Read more

MD 0877 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0877 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 212055Z - 212300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible with elevated thunderstorms moving into west-central/north-central Arkansas. The need for a watch in the short term is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have had a recent increase in intensity. While the environment ahead of this activity continues to destabilize slowly, it is not clear whether this activity will be able to become surface based in the near future. Strong effective shear and sufficient buoyancy will promote some risk of large hail as well as isolated strong/damaging winds. Convective trends will continue to be monitored as the need for a watch is not certain in the short term. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 36019340 36399246 36579186 36589130 36449085 35699129 34979242 34419332 34469384 34859407 36019340 Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E LWD TO 45 SW ALO TO 15 SSW RST TO 15 ESE MSP. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-071-073-085-131-161-187-195-212340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC005-007-011-013-017-019-023-031-037-043-045-051-055-057-061- 065-067-075-087-089-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-117- 123-125-127-135-139-157-163-171-177-179-183-185-191-212340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DAVIS DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD GRUNDY HENRY HOWARD IOWA JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON Read more

Mormon cricket outbreaks in the West have worsened in recent years, possibly partially due to drought. The insects cover homes and other structures and create a mess on roads when they are run over. The crushed bugs make a stench after baking in the sun. AccuWeather (State College, Pa.), May 17, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more