Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0875 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 277... FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0875 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Southwest/South-Central IA Concerning...Tornado Watch 277... Valid 212020Z - 212145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 277 continues. SUMMARY...A localized corridor favorable for strong tornadoes exists across southwest/south-central Iowa, including Des Moines vicinity. DISCUSSION...Pair of supercells on the southern end of the line of storms extending across western IA have recently shown notable intensification, with rotational velocity recently estimated around 50 to 55 kt within the southernmost cell. Strong southerly flow exists ahead of this storm, contributing to strong low-level shear, evidenced by recent 0-500m storm relative-helicity around 200 m2/s2 from DMX VAD. Robust deep-layer shear exists as well, with DMX VAD sampling 0-6 km bulk shear was over 60 kt. Recent mesoanalysis estimates effective-layer STP from 3 to 4 downstream. All of these factors suggest the downstream environment will remain conducive for supercell persistence. Storm motion for this southernmost storm is estimated to be northeasterly at around 45 kt, bring it into the Des Moines vicinity around 2130Z. ..Mosier.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... LAT...LON 40719467 41269501 41659451 41949347 41189288 40719467 Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S BVO TO 20 SE OJC TO 20 WNW CDJ TO 5 E LWD. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-212240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC011-021-037-099-107-133-212240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE LINN NEOSHO MOC001-009-011-013-015-025-029-033-037-039-041-043-053-057-059- 061-077-079-081-083-085-089-095-097-101-105-107-109-115-117-119- 121-129-141-145-159-167-171-175-177-185-195-197-209-211-217-225- 212240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW LWD TO 15 SSE FOD TO 20 ENE FRM TO 25 ENE RWF. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-071-073-085-131-161-187-195-212240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC005-007-011-013-015-017-019-023-031-033-037-039-043-045-051- 053-055-057-061-065-067-069-075-079-081-083-087-089-095-097-099- 101-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-127-131-135-139-153- 157-163-169-171-177-179-181-183-185-187-189-191-195-197- 212240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLARKE CLAYTON CLINTON DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE DES MOINES Read more

MD 0874 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO...NORTHEAST OK...FAR NORTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0874 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Eastern KS...Western MO...Northeast OK...Far Northwest AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 211915Z - 212115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon from eastern Kansas into western Missouri, northeast Oklahoma, and far northwest Arkansas. All severe hazards are possible and a watch will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated cumulus ahead of a surface trough extending arcing southeastward into northeast KS and then back southwestward from east-central KS through north-central OK. The airmass preceding this boundary is characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, and strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg is currently in place, with the 18Z TOP sounding sampling 3100 J/kg. This same sounding revealed that much of the convective inhibition has been eroded, although the warm-layer between 800-700 mb could still result in updrafts struggling to mature. The general expectation is that additional heating should help diminish the effect of that warm layer even more, with both increasing large-scale ascent and convergence along the boundary providing the lift needed for convective initiation. This initiation will likely begin in the northeast KS/Kansas City vicinity before expanding southward/southwestward over time. Deep-layer shear is strong enough to support organized updrafts/supercells, with all severe hazards possible. Given the strong buoyancy, most prominent hazard appears to be large to very large hail. Strong downdrafts appear possible as well. Low-level flow is a bit weaker in this region that areas farther south, resulting in a modest weakness in the hodograph, which could act to inhibit tornadogenesis. However, given the likely organized character to the storms, there is still some tornado potential with any discrete storm. A watch will likely be needed soon to address these hazards. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39999502 40479441 40339322 38629301 36579381 35999517 36259658 37979582 39999502 Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0279 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0279 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more