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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

WW 0282 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 282 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-037-089-093-099-103-111-141-155-177-201-220140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU DE KALB KANE KENDALL LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM STEPHENSON WINNEBAGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0282 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 282 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-037-089-093-099-103-111-141-155-177-201-220140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU DE KALB KANE KENDALL LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM STEPHENSON WINNEBAGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0881 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0881 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 212318Z - 220045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado and damaging wind threat will increase across portions of central WI as a line of thunderstorms, with embedded supercells, continues to rapidly move northeastward out of IA through this evening. DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms extending from far southeastern MN through east central IA, and additional new thunderstorm development ahead of it, will continue to move into a favorable low-level shear tornadic environment across central WI characterized by 50 kt of 0-1 km shear. Although recent visible satellite imagery and mesoanalysis indicates this downstream region is more convectively inhibited, strong forcing via a mid level shortwave trough and cold front will likely overcome it. An initial threat of discrete supercells will be possible early this evening, with upscale growth into a line expected late tonight. Even so, any bowing line segments lifting north-northeastward within it will become more favorably oriented with the low-level shear vector (orthogonal), presenting an opportunity for embedded mesovortices and damaging winds. ..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44569208 44889238 45129244 45539199 45679140 45679078 45519020 45298967 44988893 44748815 44718809 44318796 43808803 43558806 43578855 43648970 43669023 43769067 43979095 44569122 44569208 Read more

WW 0281 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW VOK TO 35 E EAU TO 35 NE EAU. ..HART..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-009-015-019-029-053-057-061-067-069-071-073-075-078-081- 083-087-097-115-119-135-137-139-141-220140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET CLARK DOOR JACKSON JUNEAU KEWAUNEE LANGLADE LINCOLN MANITOWOC MARATHON MARINETTE MENOMINEE MONROE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE SHAWANO TAYLOR WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO WOOD LMZ521-522-541-542-543-220140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI Read more

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...DVN...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-013-017-057-061-067-083-095-109-125-137-149-169-171- 220140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN CASS FULTON GREENE HANCOCK JERSEY KNOX MCDONOUGH MASON MORGAN PIKE SCHUYLER SCOTT MOC007-019-027-045-051-055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-103-111- 113-125-127-131-135-137-139-149-151-153-161-163-169-173-179-183- 189-199-203-205-213-215-219-221-229-510-220140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY CLARK COLE CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON KNOX LEWIS LINCOLN MARIES MARION Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC021-025-027-039-045-047-049-055-059-065-077-079-089-101-105- 111-117-127-131-133-220140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JEFFERSON KENOSHA LAFAYETTE MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE ROCK SAUK SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ643-644-645-646-220140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LMZ643 LMZ644 LMZ645 Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC021-025-027-039-045-047-049-055-059-065-077-079-089-101-105- 111-117-127-131-133-220140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JEFFERSON KENOSHA LAFAYETTE MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE ROCK SAUK SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ643-644-645-646-220140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LMZ643 LMZ644 LMZ645 Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW MKO TO 45 NW SGF TO 35 E SZL TO 35 S OTM. ..HART..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-220140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON MOC001-009-015-029-039-043-053-057-059-077-085-089-097-105-109- 119-121-141-145-167-175-185-197-209-225-220140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BARRY BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN COOPER DADE DALLAS GREENE HICKORY HOWARD JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MACON MORGAN NEWTON POLK RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SCHUYLER STONE WEBSTER Read more