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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AVK TO 40 WNW PNC TO 5 NNE ICT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC035-173-191-031340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COWLEY SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-011-017-027-043-047-053-071-073-081-083-093-103-109-119- 125-133-151-153-031340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CANADIAN CLEVELAND DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE WOODS WOODWARD Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC035-077-095-155-173-191-031240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COWLEY HARPER KINGMAN RENO SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-011-017-027-043-047-053-059-071-073-081-083-093-103-109- 119-125-133-151-153-031240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CANADIAN CLEVELAND DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT HARPER KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE WOODS WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased overnight in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions do not appear conducive for significant development, and
the system is expected to weaken during the next day or so as it
moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1148 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383...384... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...South-central KS and northwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...384... Valid 031014Z - 031115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383, 384 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of 65-80 mph wind gusts is likely ongoing across a portion of south-central Kansas and should spread into parts of northwest Oklahoma through mid-morning. DISCUSSION...A 200-km long QLCS is ongoing across a part of southwest/south-central KS into far northwest OK. This QLCS has matured over the past couple hours with a history of measured severe wind gusts to 74 mph thus far. Strongest velocities have been noted within the apex of the line that has now shifted south of the US-54 corridor. Time-series of Vance AFB VWP has indicated some weakening of the south-southwesterly low-level jet, but it is still holding in the low 40s kts. While this leading wind surge may be tempered in time as it spreads into a more marginally unstable air mass farther east in south-central KS, an additional swath may develop along the trailing flank along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient in northwest OK. ..Grams.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 37589940 37949918 37939863 37809818 37619782 37279740 36689767 36369806 36359851 36579916 36829974 37060001 37589940 Read more

WW 383 SEVERE TSTM KS 030620Z - 031200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas * Effective this Monday morning from 120 AM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are expected to develop east-southeastward across southwest Kansas through the early morning hours, with the primary threat of occasional large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated severe gusts up to 60 mph may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west southwest of Garden City KS to 35 miles north of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0384 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E LBL TO 20 WSW DDC TO 50 WSW RSL. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-057-083-097-119-145-151-165-185-031040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD HODGEMAN KIOWA MEADE PAWNEE PRATT RUSH STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW GCK TO 55 SSW HLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-081-083-097-101-119-135-145-151- 165-185-030940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RUSH STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1147 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383... FOR SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...Southwest KS to northwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383... Valid 030800Z - 030930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383 continues. SUMMARY...Increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts is expected through dawn as a developing QLCS intensifies across southwest Kansas. It appears this should eventually track towards northwest Oklahoma and an additional severe thunderstorm watch will be considered as it approaches. DISCUSSION...A 150-km long developing QLCS is ongoing across southwest KS. While it is initially rooted from elevated parcels and MRMS MESH cores have flirted around 1 inch, strong surface wind gusts have been observed (up to 55 mph at the Ulysses AWOS). This QLCS should intensify as it impinges on increasing buoyancy advecting across the Panhandles amid a 45-50 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet per Amarillo VWP data. Surface wind gusts of 55-70 mph should become more numerous into daybreak. While the bulk of 00Z CAM guidance indicated MCS development spreading more easterly across southern KS, the 06Z HRRR along with 00Z NSSL-MPAS suggest a more southeasterly track into northwest OK. Given the placement of both the MLCAPE/MUCAPE gradient and residual outflows from prior MCSs, this scenario appears more likely. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 38280065 38310006 37739874 37329808 36939772 36579780 36339802 36149857 36089920 36309981 36880080 37330129 37690139 38280065 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more