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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-081-083-093-097-101-119-135-145- 151-165-171-185-030840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RUSH SCOTT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more