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MD 1149 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384... FOR WESTERN TO NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...Western to northern OK and southeast KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384... Valid 031233Z - 031330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384 continues. SUMMARY...While the overall severe threat has diminished, potential still exists for an uptick in convective intensity later this morning. DISCUSSION...The short QLCS that was responsible for a swath of measured severe wind gusts from Garden City to Medicine Lodge weakened considerably across parts of north-central OK/south-central KS. The trailing remnants still persist across a part of northwest OK. The 12Z Amarillo sounding sampled substantially large MLCIN with a very stout elevated mixed layer characterized by lapse rates to around 9.5 C/km. With stratus evident downstream across the southeast TX Panhandle into southwest/south-central OK, it is possible that may continue to decay until late morning/midday. Otherwise, isolated/marginal severe hail will be possible over southeast KS in the near-term ahead of the remnant MCV. An additional watch is unlikely for this activity. ..Grams.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 37709613 37329539 36989543 36649573 36139649 35159758 35029880 35199974 35469993 35850000 36239996 36519944 36749845 36999796 37479714 37709613 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK/NORTH TX EASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains today. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... As has been the case for the past several nights across the Great Plains, nocturnal convection has persisted into the morning in a few different clusters. The most substantial of these has been an MCS with a history of 60-80 mph measured gusts earlier this morning across southwest KS. This MCS has weakened more recently, but some form of the convection should continue east-southeastward through the morning toward central OK, along the north edge of the MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Confidence in the details of the MCS evolution is low, though there is some potential for the storms to potentially reach the Ark-La-Tex and the western half of AR by this evening, and perhaps as far east as the Ark-La-Miss region early tonight before the storms weaken. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Despite rather modest flow aloft, an enhanced easterly component to the low-level flow near the outflow boundary will contribute to sufficient hodograph length/curvature for right-moving supercells. The extreme buoyancy, sufficiently low LCL heights and some enhancement to low-level shear along the boundary will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts. These evening storms, or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As surface temperatures warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) will develop in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/03/2024 Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AVK TO 40 WNW PNC TO 5 NNE ICT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC035-173-191-031340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COWLEY SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-011-017-027-043-047-053-071-073-081-083-093-103-109-119- 125-133-151-153-031340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CANADIAN CLEVELAND DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE WOODS WOODWARD Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC035-077-095-155-173-191-031240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COWLEY HARPER KINGMAN RENO SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-011-017-027-043-047-053-059-071-073-081-083-093-103-109- 119-125-133-151-153-031240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CANADIAN CLEVELAND DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT HARPER KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE WOODS WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased overnight in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions do not appear conducive for significant development, and
the system is expected to weaken during the next day or so as it
moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more