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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, particularly in eastern Lower Michigan the the Upper OH Valley ...Lower MI and the OH Valley.. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of a triple-point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL and southern MO As the surface low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. A moist low-level airmass will precede this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s from the Mid-South into western KY and far southern IN to the mid 60s across much of Lower MI and the OH Valley. Surface temperatures could reach in the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, combining with the low-level moisture to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear possible as the mid-level flow increases over the region. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, with the moderate buoyancy and shear supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning in the Arklatex vicinity, with continued southeastward motion into the Lower MS Valley likely as the storms gradually weaken. Outflow from these storms could provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country, within a strongly buoyant but weakly sheared airmass. Some severe is possible, with outflow-dominant storm structures contributing to the potential for damaging gusts. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution of the early morning storms and resultant uncertainty regarding the strength and location of its associated outflow as well as expected limited coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-latitude cyclone drifting into the region. Most updrafts will likely be shallow, but a few deeper updrafts could result in small hail and a damaging gust or two. Severe coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible today from the mid-Missouri River Valley to northern Minnesota with large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from southern Oklahoma to southern Mississippi where damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the northern Rockies will amplify and sharpen as it moves across the northern/central Plains today. Additional mid-level shortwave troughs will move along the OK/TX Panhandle and through the Midwest. A well-defined cold front will move through the Upper Midwest with a secondary surface low somewhere in the OK Panhandle vicinity. ...Northern Minnesota to Northeast Kansas... Temperatures will warm into the 80s ahead of a cold front in the Upper Midwest this afternoon where low to mid 60s will also be present. This will result MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon as convergence strengthens along the cold front and ascent increases from the approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Modest, unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region will support multicell clusters/transient supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Oklahoma to central Mississippi... 00Z CAM guidance had a consistent signal for extensive convection (ongoing at 06Z) to congeal into a forward propagating MCS somewhere near southeast Oklahoma at 12Z. Ahead of this MCS, a moist airmass is present and with some heating, expect an uncapped and very unstable environment by late morning to early afternoon. Therefore, this MCS will likely continue through the day and intensify by early afternoon as inhibition erodes. The primary threat from this activity will be damaging wind gusts as the MCS moves southeast along the instability gradient. Similar to the last few days across the Texas Panhandle, an outflow boundary will likely extend westward from the morning MCS with warming/recovery in its wake as the EML advects across the region. This will likely lead to a complicated surface pattern across southwest Oklahoma as a surface low is forecast to develop and strengthen amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and a potential outflow boundary from morning convection. A few supercells are possible with extreme instability (6000+ MLCAPE) and effective shear around 35 knots (forecast by the 04Z RAP). Any supercells which develop will pose the threat for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado, with eventual upscale growth into a MCS with a damaging wind threat across north Texas the most likely evolution. ...Missouri into Illinois and Wisconsin... Scattered storms may develop in the vicinity of a northeastward moving upper-level trough as it moves from Kansas to Wisconsin during the day. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong updrafts with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. However, weak shear should limit a more organized threat. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/04/2024 Read more

WW 0388 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 388 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-015-017-027-029-037-051-061-063-073-077-079-081-083- 087-091-101-107-109-111-119-121-123-125-127-133-040640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COAL CREEK GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040512
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

The City of Las Cruces unanimously approved a ban on some fireworks as the Fourth of July holiday approached. The ban is intended to reduce the risk of fires as hot, dry conditions loom and will be in effect from June 7 through July 6. The types of fireworks that were banned included missile-type rockets, helicopters, aerial spinners, stick-type rockets and ground audible devices such as chasers and firecrackers. Doña Ana County already enacted a similar ban for the unincorporated part of the county. The Las Cruces Bulletin (N.M.), June 3, 2024

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HEZ TO 45 NW PIB TO 55 NNW PIB TO 55 WNW MEI TO 30 ESE GWO TO 30 NNE GWO TO 35 W MEM. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC029-040540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CONCORDIA MSC001-023-031-035-037-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085- 091-099-101-123-127-129-040540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MARION NESHOBA NEWTON SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HEZ TO 45 NW PIB TO 55 NNW PIB TO 55 WNW MEI TO 30 ESE GWO TO 30 NNE GWO TO 35 W MEM. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC029-040540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CONCORDIA MSC001-023-031-035-037-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085- 091-099-101-123-127-129-040540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MARION NESHOBA NEWTON SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HEZ TO 45 NW PIB TO 55 NNW PIB TO 55 WNW MEI TO 30 ESE GWO TO 30 NNE GWO TO 35 W MEM. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC029-040540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CONCORDIA MSC001-023-031-035-037-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085- 091-099-101-123-127-129-040540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MARION NESHOBA NEWTON SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HEZ TO 45 NW PIB TO 55 NNW PIB TO 55 WNW MEI TO 30 ESE GWO TO 30 NNE GWO TO 35 W MEM. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC029-040540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CONCORDIA MSC001-023-031-035-037-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085- 091-099-101-123-127-129-040540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MARION NESHOBA NEWTON SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HEZ TO 45 NW PIB TO 55 NNW PIB TO 55 WNW MEI TO 30 ESE GWO TO 30 NNE GWO TO 35 W MEM. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC029-040540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CONCORDIA MSC001-023-031-035-037-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085- 091-099-101-123-127-129-040540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MARION NESHOBA NEWTON SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more