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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0388 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW END TO 10 N CQB TO 5 NNE RKR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159. ..GRAMS..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-015-017-027-029-051-061-063-077-079-081-087-091-107- 109-121-123-125-127-133-040740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COAL GRADY HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, particularly in eastern Lower Michigan the the Upper OH Valley ...Lower MI and the OH Valley.. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of a triple-point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL and southern MO As the surface low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. A moist low-level airmass will precede this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s from the Mid-South into western KY and far southern IN to the mid 60s across much of Lower MI and the OH Valley. Surface temperatures could reach in the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, combining with the low-level moisture to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear possible as the mid-level flow increases over the region. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, with the moderate buoyancy and shear supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning in the Arklatex vicinity, with continued southeastward motion into the Lower MS Valley likely as the storms gradually weaken. Outflow from these storms could provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country, within a strongly buoyant but weakly sheared airmass. Some severe is possible, with outflow-dominant storm structures contributing to the potential for damaging gusts. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution of the early morning storms and resultant uncertainty regarding the strength and location of its associated outflow as well as expected limited coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-latitude cyclone drifting into the region. Most updrafts will likely be shallow, but a few deeper updrafts could result in small hail and a damaging gust or two. Severe coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, particularly in eastern Lower Michigan the the Upper OH Valley ...Lower MI and the OH Valley.. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of a triple-point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL and southern MO As the surface low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. A moist low-level airmass will precede this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s from the Mid-South into western KY and far southern IN to the mid 60s across much of Lower MI and the OH Valley. Surface temperatures could reach in the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, combining with the low-level moisture to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear possible as the mid-level flow increases over the region. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, with the moderate buoyancy and shear supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning in the Arklatex vicinity, with continued southeastward motion into the Lower MS Valley likely as the storms gradually weaken. Outflow from these storms could provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country, within a strongly buoyant but weakly sheared airmass. Some severe is possible, with outflow-dominant storm structures contributing to the potential for damaging gusts. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution of the early morning storms and resultant uncertainty regarding the strength and location of its associated outflow as well as expected limited coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-latitude cyclone drifting into the region. Most updrafts will likely be shallow, but a few deeper updrafts could result in small hail and a damaging gust or two. Severe coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, particularly in eastern Lower Michigan the the Upper OH Valley ...Lower MI and the OH Valley.. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of a triple-point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL and southern MO As the surface low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. A moist low-level airmass will precede this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s from the Mid-South into western KY and far southern IN to the mid 60s across much of Lower MI and the OH Valley. Surface temperatures could reach in the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, combining with the low-level moisture to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear possible as the mid-level flow increases over the region. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, with the moderate buoyancy and shear supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning in the Arklatex vicinity, with continued southeastward motion into the Lower MS Valley likely as the storms gradually weaken. Outflow from these storms could provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country, within a strongly buoyant but weakly sheared airmass. Some severe is possible, with outflow-dominant storm structures contributing to the potential for damaging gusts. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution of the early morning storms and resultant uncertainty regarding the strength and location of its associated outflow as well as expected limited coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-latitude cyclone drifting into the region. Most updrafts will likely be shallow, but a few deeper updrafts could result in small hail and a damaging gust or two. Severe coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, particularly in eastern Lower Michigan the the Upper OH Valley ...Lower MI and the OH Valley.. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of a triple-point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL and southern MO As the surface low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. A moist low-level airmass will precede this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s from the Mid-South into western KY and far southern IN to the mid 60s across much of Lower MI and the OH Valley. Surface temperatures could reach in the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, combining with the low-level moisture to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear possible as the mid-level flow increases over the region. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, with the moderate buoyancy and shear supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning in the Arklatex vicinity, with continued southeastward motion into the Lower MS Valley likely as the storms gradually weaken. Outflow from these storms could provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country, within a strongly buoyant but weakly sheared airmass. Some severe is possible, with outflow-dominant storm structures contributing to the potential for damaging gusts. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution of the early morning storms and resultant uncertainty regarding the strength and location of its associated outflow as well as expected limited coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-latitude cyclone drifting into the region. Most updrafts will likely be shallow, but a few deeper updrafts could result in small hail and a damaging gust or two. Severe coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, particularly in eastern Lower Michigan the the Upper OH Valley ...Lower MI and the OH Valley.. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of a triple-point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL and southern MO As the surface low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. A moist low-level airmass will precede this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s from the Mid-South into western KY and far southern IN to the mid 60s across much of Lower MI and the OH Valley. Surface temperatures could reach in the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, combining with the low-level moisture to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear possible as the mid-level flow increases over the region. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, with the moderate buoyancy and shear supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning in the Arklatex vicinity, with continued southeastward motion into the Lower MS Valley likely as the storms gradually weaken. Outflow from these storms could provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country, within a strongly buoyant but weakly sheared airmass. Some severe is possible, with outflow-dominant storm structures contributing to the potential for damaging gusts. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution of the early morning storms and resultant uncertainty regarding the strength and location of its associated outflow as well as expected limited coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-latitude cyclone drifting into the region. Most updrafts will likely be shallow, but a few deeper updrafts could result in small hail and a damaging gust or two. Severe coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, particularly in eastern Lower Michigan the the Upper OH Valley ...Lower MI and the OH Valley.. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of a triple-point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL and southern MO As the surface low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. A moist low-level airmass will precede this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s from the Mid-South into western KY and far southern IN to the mid 60s across much of Lower MI and the OH Valley. Surface temperatures could reach in the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, combining with the low-level moisture to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear possible as the mid-level flow increases over the region. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, with the moderate buoyancy and shear supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning in the Arklatex vicinity, with continued southeastward motion into the Lower MS Valley likely as the storms gradually weaken. Outflow from these storms could provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country, within a strongly buoyant but weakly sheared airmass. Some severe is possible, with outflow-dominant storm structures contributing to the potential for damaging gusts. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution of the early morning storms and resultant uncertainty regarding the strength and location of its associated outflow as well as expected limited coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-latitude cyclone drifting into the region. Most updrafts will likely be shallow, but a few deeper updrafts could result in small hail and a damaging gust or two. Severe coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, particularly in eastern Lower Michigan the the Upper OH Valley ...Lower MI and the OH Valley.. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of a triple-point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL and southern MO As the surface low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. A moist low-level airmass will precede this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s from the Mid-South into western KY and far southern IN to the mid 60s across much of Lower MI and the OH Valley. Surface temperatures could reach in the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, combining with the low-level moisture to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear possible as the mid-level flow increases over the region. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, with the moderate buoyancy and shear supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning in the Arklatex vicinity, with continued southeastward motion into the Lower MS Valley likely as the storms gradually weaken. Outflow from these storms could provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country, within a strongly buoyant but weakly sheared airmass. Some severe is possible, with outflow-dominant storm structures contributing to the potential for damaging gusts. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution of the early morning storms and resultant uncertainty regarding the strength and location of its associated outflow as well as expected limited coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-latitude cyclone drifting into the region. Most updrafts will likely be shallow, but a few deeper updrafts could result in small hail and a damaging gust or two. Severe coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, particularly in eastern Lower Michigan the the Upper OH Valley ...Lower MI and the OH Valley.. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of a triple-point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL and southern MO As the surface low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. A moist low-level airmass will precede this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s from the Mid-South into western KY and far southern IN to the mid 60s across much of Lower MI and the OH Valley. Surface temperatures could reach in the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, combining with the low-level moisture to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear possible as the mid-level flow increases over the region. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, with the moderate buoyancy and shear supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning in the Arklatex vicinity, with continued southeastward motion into the Lower MS Valley likely as the storms gradually weaken. Outflow from these storms could provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country, within a strongly buoyant but weakly sheared airmass. Some severe is possible, with outflow-dominant storm structures contributing to the potential for damaging gusts. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution of the early morning storms and resultant uncertainty regarding the strength and location of its associated outflow as well as expected limited coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-latitude cyclone drifting into the region. Most updrafts will likely be shallow, but a few deeper updrafts could result in small hail and a damaging gust or two. Severe coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, particularly in eastern Lower Michigan the the Upper OH Valley ...Lower MI and the OH Valley.. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of a triple-point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL and southern MO As the surface low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. A moist low-level airmass will precede this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s from the Mid-South into western KY and far southern IN to the mid 60s across much of Lower MI and the OH Valley. Surface temperatures could reach in the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, combining with the low-level moisture to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear possible as the mid-level flow increases over the region. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, with the moderate buoyancy and shear supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning in the Arklatex vicinity, with continued southeastward motion into the Lower MS Valley likely as the storms gradually weaken. Outflow from these storms could provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country, within a strongly buoyant but weakly sheared airmass. Some severe is possible, with outflow-dominant storm structures contributing to the potential for damaging gusts. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution of the early morning storms and resultant uncertainty regarding the strength and location of its associated outflow as well as expected limited coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-latitude cyclone drifting into the region. Most updrafts will likely be shallow, but a few deeper updrafts could result in small hail and a damaging gust or two. Severe coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, particularly in eastern Lower Michigan the the Upper OH Valley ...Lower MI and the OH Valley.. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading into the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of a triple-point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL and southern MO As the surface low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. A moist low-level airmass will precede this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s from the Mid-South into western KY and far southern IN to the mid 60s across much of Lower MI and the OH Valley. Surface temperatures could reach in the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, combining with the low-level moisture to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear possible as the mid-level flow increases over the region. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, with the moderate buoyancy and shear supporting the potential for a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Wednesday morning in the Arklatex vicinity, with continued southeastward motion into the Lower MS Valley likely as the storms gradually weaken. Outflow from these storms could provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from the Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country, within a strongly buoyant but weakly sheared airmass. Some severe is possible, with outflow-dominant storm structures contributing to the potential for damaging gusts. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution of the early morning storms and resultant uncertainty regarding the strength and location of its associated outflow as well as expected limited coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-latitude cyclone drifting into the region. Most updrafts will likely be shallow, but a few deeper updrafts could result in small hail and a damaging gust or two. Severe coverage is currently expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 Read more