Aggregator

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HEZ TO 45 NW PIB TO 55 NNW PIB TO 55 WNW MEI TO 30 ESE GWO TO 30 NNE GWO TO 35 W MEM. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC029-040540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CONCORDIA MSC001-023-031-035-037-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085- 091-099-101-123-127-129-040540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MARION NESHOBA NEWTON SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 387 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 032355Z - 040500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 387 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Western Mississippi * Effective this Monday night from 655 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will spread eastward through the evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts across the watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 100 miles north northeast of Greenville MS to 25 miles west southwest of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 385...WW 386... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0388 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 388 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-015-017-027-029-037-051-061-063-073-077-079-081-083- 087-091-101-107-109-111-119-121-123-125-127-133-040540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COAL CREEK GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0388 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0388 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1158 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387... FOR EAST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0923 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...East Texas...North-central Louisiana...Western and Central Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387... Valid 040223Z - 040430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will be possible as a linear MCS moves into the central Gulf Coast states during the overnight period. The ongoing severe thunderstorm watch has been extended in area into south-central Mississippi, and may also need to be extended in time over parts of far eastern Texas and far western Louisiana. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery over the lower Ohio and Sabine River Valleys shows two organized line segments. The first is a larger-scale line associated with an MCS that is moving into western Mississippi. The second is a relatively small-scale bowing line segment over northeast Texas. These two features are located within a moderately unstable airmass, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Fort Polk, LA and 00Z sounding at Jackson, MS have 0-6 km shear near 35 knots, and gradually veering winds with height in the lowest 3 km. This wind profile will be continue to be favorable for linear organization, associated with an isolated wind-damage threat late this evening into the overnight period. The threat should be greatest from eastern Louisiana and western Mississippi, although a secondary threat area will exist near the Sabine River in western Louisiana. ..Broyles.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32419187 32269283 32539408 32529478 32339503 32039502 31629469 31239391 31049209 31409059 32448948 33008914 33458903 33788918 33938974 33939042 33759073 33149113 32419187 Read more

MD 1157 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1157 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0856 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...Oklahoma...Western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 040156Z - 040430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of Oklahoma and far western Arkansas late this evening. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will become likely. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches will be possible. Weather watch issuance will become likely, once the timing of cell initiation becomes more certain. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in place across the much of the southern Plains. Visible satellite imagery shows a band of agitated cumulus extending from west to east across south-central Oklahoma. The 00Z sounding at Norman shows a cap in place near 700 mb with a near surface inversion. However, short-term model guidance rapidly strengthens a low-level jet across southeastern Oklahoma. Lift associated with this feature will likely result in scattered cell initiation between 03z and 04Z. In addition, forecast soundings have effective shear near 40 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. As cells initiate and mature, supercells with large hail will become likely. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cells. Even though the storms will be elevated, a few strong to severe wind gusts may also occur. ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35489439 35199401 34739398 34379412 34109453 34229579 34549769 34799868 35149901 35689894 35979848 35979762 35739580 35489439 Read more

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MLU TO 30 ESE MLU TO 40 S GLH TO 15 NNE GLH TO 45 ENE PBF. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC025-029-041-065-107-040340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN MADISON TENSAS MSC001-015-021-029-037-043-049-051-053-055-063-083-085-089-121- 125-127-133-149-163-040340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CARROLL CLAIBORNE COPIAH FRANKLIN GRENADA HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON LEFLORE LINCOLN MADISON RANKIN SHARKEY SIMPSON SUNFLOWER WARREN YAZOO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MLU TO 30 ESE MLU TO 40 S GLH TO 15 NNE GLH TO 45 ENE PBF. ..BROYLES..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC025-029-041-065-107-040340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN MADISON TENSAS MSC001-015-021-029-037-043-049-051-053-055-063-083-085-089-121- 125-127-133-149-163-040340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CARROLL CLAIBORNE COPIAH FRANKLIN GRENADA HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON LEFLORE LINCOLN MADISON RANKIN SHARKEY SIMPSON SUNFLOWER WARREN YAZOO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 1156 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1156 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Texas Panhandle...Far Western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386... Valid 040016Z - 040215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase in coverage across parts of the central and eastern Texas Panhandle over the next few hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo shows multiple isolated severe storms ongoing across the central and eastern Texas Panhandle. The storms are located along and near an axis of strong instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range. A shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, appears to be moving through the Texas Panhandle. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough will likely support a gradual increase in convective coverage over the next few hours. RAP forecast soundings early this evening in the eastern Texas Panhandle have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support an isolated large-hail threat with supercells. As cells mature early this evening, a threat for severe wind gusts will also be possible. Low-level shear will also be strong enough for an isolated tornado threat with any storm that can become dominant. ..Broyles.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36440008 36490073 36310134 35760170 34700113 33940010 33949931 34449909 35019950 36109977 36440008 Read more

MD 1155 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385... FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1155 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Northern Louisiana...Southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385... Valid 032336Z - 040130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat will be possible with the stronger cells embedded in and ahead of a line segment from northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Additional weather watch issuance remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS that is moving southeast at about 35 knots across the Ark-La-Tex. A pocket of strong instability is present ahead of the line, where surface dewpoints are in the 70s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The instability, along with strong large-scale ascent associated with a vorticity maxima and low-level convergence, will support the linear MCS for several more hours as it moves southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with directional shear in the lowest 2 km. This environment will continue to support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger segments along the leading edge of the line. Cells that form ahead of the line could also have a hail threat. ..Broyles.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 33119387 33739272 33879224 33809177 33489146 32799154 32139208 31779282 31499389 31579517 31909611 32279651 32859657 33129616 33009513 33119387 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening. Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail. ...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois... A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended. ...Dakotas... A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise, the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability. ...Central to Southeast Oklahoma... Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches) will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability. ...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss... A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next few hours. ..Bentley.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening. Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail. ...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois... A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended. ...Dakotas... A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise, the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability. ...Central to Southeast Oklahoma... Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches) will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability. ...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss... A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next few hours. ..Bentley.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening. Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail. ...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois... A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended. ...Dakotas... A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise, the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability. ...Central to Southeast Oklahoma... Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches) will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability. ...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss... A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next few hours. ..Bentley.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening. Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail. ...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois... A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended. ...Dakotas... A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise, the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability. ...Central to Southeast Oklahoma... Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches) will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability. ...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss... A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next few hours. ..Bentley.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening. Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail. ...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois... A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended. ...Dakotas... A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise, the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability. ...Central to Southeast Oklahoma... Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches) will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability. ...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss... A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next few hours. ..Bentley.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening. Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail. ...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois... A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended. ...Dakotas... A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise, the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability. ...Central to Southeast Oklahoma... Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches) will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability. ...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss... A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next few hours. ..Bentley.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening. Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail. ...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois... A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended. ...Dakotas... A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise, the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability. ...Central to Southeast Oklahoma... Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches) will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability. ...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss... A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next few hours. ..Bentley.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening. Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail. ...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois... A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended. ...Dakotas... A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise, the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability. ...Central to Southeast Oklahoma... Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches) will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability. ...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss... A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next few hours. ..Bentley.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening. Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail. ...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois... A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended. ...Dakotas... A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise, the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability. ...Central to Southeast Oklahoma... Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches) will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability. ...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss... A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next few hours. ..Bentley.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening. Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail. ...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois... A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended. ...Dakotas... A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise, the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability. ...Central to Southeast Oklahoma... Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches) will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability. ...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss... A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next few hours. ..Bentley.. 06/04/2024 Read more