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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Smith/Barnes.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Smith/Barnes.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Smith/Barnes.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Smith/Barnes.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Smith/Barnes.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Smith/Barnes.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Smith/Barnes.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Smith/Barnes.. 06/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Smith/Barnes.. 06/04/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 4 16:34:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus has trended windier across portions of Far West Texas. Still, recent rainfall in the last week, along with the spatially constrained nature of the more favorable overlapping winds/RH, precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights, though localized wildfire-spread potential does exist. Portions of the western and central FL peninsula will also see RH drop into the 30-40 percent range by afternoon peak heating. Surface winds are expected to be too weak to warrant fire weather highlights, though overlapping low RH and dry fuels will support at least localized wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Southwest is forecast to move east as mid-level ridging begins to intensify over the western CONUS. As the ridge builds, the westerly flow aloft will weaken and shift northward, resulting in weaker winds over parts of the Desert Southwest compared to the last few days. At the surface, a cold front is also forecast to move south and begin encroaching on the higher terrain of the southern Rockies/High Plains. Higher RH should increase as moisture moves west with the backdoor front. With weaker surface winds and increasing RH, fire-weather conditions appear unlikely to be widespread. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, but coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more