Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071122
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more