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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ADJACENT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms -- and attendant hail/wind risk -- are expected from afternoon through the evening from the High Plains of Colorado southeastward to the south-central Kansas vicinity. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across the lower Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valley vicinity. ...Central High Plains southeastward to south-central Kansas/northern Oklahoma... Afternoon heating/destabilization is forecast across the central High Plains -- particularly eastern Colorado and far southeastern Wyoming -- in a post-frontal, upslope-flow environment expected across the area. Isolated storms should develop over the Front Range during the afternoon, and with a rather deep/dry boundary layer that is expected, initially sparse convection should tend to grow gradually upscale through the afternoon. As a cold pool evolves, and given background west-northwesterly mid-level flow atop a developing southerly low-level jet, upscale growth into an east-southeastward-moving MCS appears probable. As such, risk for locally damaging winds, and hail, warrants upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of eastern Colorado and across western and south-central Kansas, reflective of this mainly evening severe-weather potential. Storms will eventually diminish in intensity overnight as the low-level jet veers through the end of the period. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/high-based afternoon storms are expected to develop over eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains region, near a weak lee trough/dryline, as daytime heating/mixing results in modest CAPE atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Storms should remain isolated, but evaporative effects within the dry sub-cloud layer could support locally strong/damaging wind gusts with one or two of the strongest storms. Convection should diminish rather rapidly into the early evening, coincident with evening stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley area... Ongoing convection/cloud cover is expected early in the period, as a decaying MCS is forecast to be moving southeastward across Missouri. Near and north of an associated west-to-east outflow boundary that should lie across the Ozarks during the afternoon, some potential for warm-advection-induced, isolated storm redevelopment appears possible. Conditionally, the environment would support risk for organized/potentially rotating storms, but with a likely-to-be convectively contaminated boundary layer, and questions regarding storm coverage, will maintain only MRGL risk for severe weather across this area. A few storms may develop nearer the outflow over the southeastern Missouri during the afternoon, and spread across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but a less-favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward extent should limit severe-weather potential. ..Goss.. 06/07/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 7 17:47:01 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more