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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0395 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0395 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 7 17:57:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ADJACENT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms -- and attendant hail/wind risk -- are expected from afternoon through the evening from the High Plains of Colorado southeastward to the south-central Kansas vicinity. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across the lower Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valley vicinity. ...Central High Plains southeastward to south-central Kansas/northern Oklahoma... Afternoon heating/destabilization is forecast across the central High Plains -- particularly eastern Colorado and far southeastern Wyoming -- in a post-frontal, upslope-flow environment expected across the area. Isolated storms should develop over the Front Range during the afternoon, and with a rather deep/dry boundary layer that is expected, initially sparse convection should tend to grow gradually upscale through the afternoon. As a cold pool evolves, and given background west-northwesterly mid-level flow atop a developing southerly low-level jet, upscale growth into an east-southeastward-moving MCS appears probable. As such, risk for locally damaging winds, and hail, warrants upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of eastern Colorado and across western and south-central Kansas, reflective of this mainly evening severe-weather potential. Storms will eventually diminish in intensity overnight as the low-level jet veers through the end of the period. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/high-based afternoon storms are expected to develop over eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains region, near a weak lee trough/dryline, as daytime heating/mixing results in modest CAPE atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Storms should remain isolated, but evaporative effects within the dry sub-cloud layer could support locally strong/damaging wind gusts with one or two of the strongest storms. Convection should diminish rather rapidly into the early evening, coincident with evening stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley area... Ongoing convection/cloud cover is expected early in the period, as a decaying MCS is forecast to be moving southeastward across Missouri. Near and north of an associated west-to-east outflow boundary that should lie across the Ozarks during the afternoon, some potential for warm-advection-induced, isolated storm redevelopment appears possible. Conditionally, the environment would support risk for organized/potentially rotating storms, but with a likely-to-be convectively contaminated boundary layer, and questions regarding storm coverage, will maintain only MRGL risk for severe weather across this area. A few storms may develop nearer the outflow over the southeastern Missouri during the afternoon, and spread across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but a less-favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward extent should limit severe-weather potential. ..Goss.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ADJACENT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms -- and attendant hail/wind risk -- are expected from afternoon through the evening from the High Plains of Colorado southeastward to the south-central Kansas vicinity. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across the lower Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valley vicinity. ...Central High Plains southeastward to south-central Kansas/northern Oklahoma... Afternoon heating/destabilization is forecast across the central High Plains -- particularly eastern Colorado and far southeastern Wyoming -- in a post-frontal, upslope-flow environment expected across the area. Isolated storms should develop over the Front Range during the afternoon, and with a rather deep/dry boundary layer that is expected, initially sparse convection should tend to grow gradually upscale through the afternoon. As a cold pool evolves, and given background west-northwesterly mid-level flow atop a developing southerly low-level jet, upscale growth into an east-southeastward-moving MCS appears probable. As such, risk for locally damaging winds, and hail, warrants upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of eastern Colorado and across western and south-central Kansas, reflective of this mainly evening severe-weather potential. Storms will eventually diminish in intensity overnight as the low-level jet veers through the end of the period. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/high-based afternoon storms are expected to develop over eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains region, near a weak lee trough/dryline, as daytime heating/mixing results in modest CAPE atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Storms should remain isolated, but evaporative effects within the dry sub-cloud layer could support locally strong/damaging wind gusts with one or two of the strongest storms. Convection should diminish rather rapidly into the early evening, coincident with evening stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley area... Ongoing convection/cloud cover is expected early in the period, as a decaying MCS is forecast to be moving southeastward across Missouri. Near and north of an associated west-to-east outflow boundary that should lie across the Ozarks during the afternoon, some potential for warm-advection-induced, isolated storm redevelopment appears possible. Conditionally, the environment would support risk for organized/potentially rotating storms, but with a likely-to-be convectively contaminated boundary layer, and questions regarding storm coverage, will maintain only MRGL risk for severe weather across this area. A few storms may develop nearer the outflow over the southeastern Missouri during the afternoon, and spread across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but a less-favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward extent should limit severe-weather potential. ..Goss.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ADJACENT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms -- and attendant hail/wind risk -- are expected from afternoon through the evening from the High Plains of Colorado southeastward to the south-central Kansas vicinity. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across the lower Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valley vicinity. ...Central High Plains southeastward to south-central Kansas/northern Oklahoma... Afternoon heating/destabilization is forecast across the central High Plains -- particularly eastern Colorado and far southeastern Wyoming -- in a post-frontal, upslope-flow environment expected across the area. Isolated storms should develop over the Front Range during the afternoon, and with a rather deep/dry boundary layer that is expected, initially sparse convection should tend to grow gradually upscale through the afternoon. As a cold pool evolves, and given background west-northwesterly mid-level flow atop a developing southerly low-level jet, upscale growth into an east-southeastward-moving MCS appears probable. As such, risk for locally damaging winds, and hail, warrants upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of eastern Colorado and across western and south-central Kansas, reflective of this mainly evening severe-weather potential. Storms will eventually diminish in intensity overnight as the low-level jet veers through the end of the period. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/high-based afternoon storms are expected to develop over eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains region, near a weak lee trough/dryline, as daytime heating/mixing results in modest CAPE atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Storms should remain isolated, but evaporative effects within the dry sub-cloud layer could support locally strong/damaging wind gusts with one or two of the strongest storms. Convection should diminish rather rapidly into the early evening, coincident with evening stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley area... Ongoing convection/cloud cover is expected early in the period, as a decaying MCS is forecast to be moving southeastward across Missouri. Near and north of an associated west-to-east outflow boundary that should lie across the Ozarks during the afternoon, some potential for warm-advection-induced, isolated storm redevelopment appears possible. Conditionally, the environment would support risk for organized/potentially rotating storms, but with a likely-to-be convectively contaminated boundary layer, and questions regarding storm coverage, will maintain only MRGL risk for severe weather across this area. A few storms may develop nearer the outflow over the southeastern Missouri during the afternoon, and spread across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but a less-favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward extent should limit severe-weather potential. ..Goss.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ADJACENT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms -- and attendant hail/wind risk -- are expected from afternoon through the evening from the High Plains of Colorado southeastward to the south-central Kansas vicinity. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across the lower Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valley vicinity. ...Central High Plains southeastward to south-central Kansas/northern Oklahoma... Afternoon heating/destabilization is forecast across the central High Plains -- particularly eastern Colorado and far southeastern Wyoming -- in a post-frontal, upslope-flow environment expected across the area. Isolated storms should develop over the Front Range during the afternoon, and with a rather deep/dry boundary layer that is expected, initially sparse convection should tend to grow gradually upscale through the afternoon. As a cold pool evolves, and given background west-northwesterly mid-level flow atop a developing southerly low-level jet, upscale growth into an east-southeastward-moving MCS appears probable. As such, risk for locally damaging winds, and hail, warrants upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of eastern Colorado and across western and south-central Kansas, reflective of this mainly evening severe-weather potential. Storms will eventually diminish in intensity overnight as the low-level jet veers through the end of the period. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/high-based afternoon storms are expected to develop over eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains region, near a weak lee trough/dryline, as daytime heating/mixing results in modest CAPE atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Storms should remain isolated, but evaporative effects within the dry sub-cloud layer could support locally strong/damaging wind gusts with one or two of the strongest storms. Convection should diminish rather rapidly into the early evening, coincident with evening stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley area... Ongoing convection/cloud cover is expected early in the period, as a decaying MCS is forecast to be moving southeastward across Missouri. Near and north of an associated west-to-east outflow boundary that should lie across the Ozarks during the afternoon, some potential for warm-advection-induced, isolated storm redevelopment appears possible. Conditionally, the environment would support risk for organized/potentially rotating storms, but with a likely-to-be convectively contaminated boundary layer, and questions regarding storm coverage, will maintain only MRGL risk for severe weather across this area. A few storms may develop nearer the outflow over the southeastern Missouri during the afternoon, and spread across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but a less-favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward extent should limit severe-weather potential. ..Goss.. 06/07/2024 Read more