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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread southeast across the central Plains this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Weak short-wave trough has topped the western US ridge and is now digging southeast across the central Plains. Robust convection has evolved ahead of this feature with a corridor of mixed supercells and multi cell clusters. An east-west band of severe thunderstorms extends across southern NE and this activity is propagating southeast immediately ahead of the short wave. 1km AGL inflow is roughly 30-35kt into this activity and LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly this evening into northeast KS. This complex should grow upscale as it advances downstream. If this occurs, an organized damaging wind event could materialize along the leading edge of the cold-pool enhanced squall line. More isolated convection is noted across the High Plains of western KS and these storms should remain somewhat isolated as they propagate southeast. A more concentrated band of high-based convection has evolved from northeast NM into the eastern OK Panhandle. This activity has the potential to produce severe wind gusts as it spreads east this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread southeast across the central Plains this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Weak short-wave trough has topped the western US ridge and is now digging southeast across the central Plains. Robust convection has evolved ahead of this feature with a corridor of mixed supercells and multi cell clusters. An east-west band of severe thunderstorms extends across southern NE and this activity is propagating southeast immediately ahead of the short wave. 1km AGL inflow is roughly 30-35kt into this activity and LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly this evening into northeast KS. This complex should grow upscale as it advances downstream. If this occurs, an organized damaging wind event could materialize along the leading edge of the cold-pool enhanced squall line. More isolated convection is noted across the High Plains of western KS and these storms should remain somewhat isolated as they propagate southeast. A more concentrated band of high-based convection has evolved from northeast NM into the eastern OK Panhandle. This activity has the potential to produce severe wind gusts as it spreads east this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread southeast across the central Plains this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Weak short-wave trough has topped the western US ridge and is now digging southeast across the central Plains. Robust convection has evolved ahead of this feature with a corridor of mixed supercells and multi cell clusters. An east-west band of severe thunderstorms extends across southern NE and this activity is propagating southeast immediately ahead of the short wave. 1km AGL inflow is roughly 30-35kt into this activity and LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly this evening into northeast KS. This complex should grow upscale as it advances downstream. If this occurs, an organized damaging wind event could materialize along the leading edge of the cold-pool enhanced squall line. More isolated convection is noted across the High Plains of western KS and these storms should remain somewhat isolated as they propagate southeast. A more concentrated band of high-based convection has evolved from northeast NM into the eastern OK Panhandle. This activity has the potential to produce severe wind gusts as it spreads east this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread southeast across the central Plains this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Weak short-wave trough has topped the western US ridge and is now digging southeast across the central Plains. Robust convection has evolved ahead of this feature with a corridor of mixed supercells and multi cell clusters. An east-west band of severe thunderstorms extends across southern NE and this activity is propagating southeast immediately ahead of the short wave. 1km AGL inflow is roughly 30-35kt into this activity and LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly this evening into northeast KS. This complex should grow upscale as it advances downstream. If this occurs, an organized damaging wind event could materialize along the leading edge of the cold-pool enhanced squall line. More isolated convection is noted across the High Plains of western KS and these storms should remain somewhat isolated as they propagate southeast. A more concentrated band of high-based convection has evolved from northeast NM into the eastern OK Panhandle. This activity has the potential to produce severe wind gusts as it spreads east this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread southeast across the central Plains this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Weak short-wave trough has topped the western US ridge and is now digging southeast across the central Plains. Robust convection has evolved ahead of this feature with a corridor of mixed supercells and multi cell clusters. An east-west band of severe thunderstorms extends across southern NE and this activity is propagating southeast immediately ahead of the short wave. 1km AGL inflow is roughly 30-35kt into this activity and LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly this evening into northeast KS. This complex should grow upscale as it advances downstream. If this occurs, an organized damaging wind event could materialize along the leading edge of the cold-pool enhanced squall line. More isolated convection is noted across the High Plains of western KS and these storms should remain somewhat isolated as they propagate southeast. A more concentrated band of high-based convection has evolved from northeast NM into the eastern OK Panhandle. This activity has the potential to produce severe wind gusts as it spreads east this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread southeast across the central Plains this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Weak short-wave trough has topped the western US ridge and is now digging southeast across the central Plains. Robust convection has evolved ahead of this feature with a corridor of mixed supercells and multi cell clusters. An east-west band of severe thunderstorms extends across southern NE and this activity is propagating southeast immediately ahead of the short wave. 1km AGL inflow is roughly 30-35kt into this activity and LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly this evening into northeast KS. This complex should grow upscale as it advances downstream. If this occurs, an organized damaging wind event could materialize along the leading edge of the cold-pool enhanced squall line. More isolated convection is noted across the High Plains of western KS and these storms should remain somewhat isolated as they propagate southeast. A more concentrated band of high-based convection has evolved from northeast NM into the eastern OK Panhandle. This activity has the potential to produce severe wind gusts as it spreads east this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread southeast across the central Plains this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Weak short-wave trough has topped the western US ridge and is now digging southeast across the central Plains. Robust convection has evolved ahead of this feature with a corridor of mixed supercells and multi cell clusters. An east-west band of severe thunderstorms extends across southern NE and this activity is propagating southeast immediately ahead of the short wave. 1km AGL inflow is roughly 30-35kt into this activity and LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly this evening into northeast KS. This complex should grow upscale as it advances downstream. If this occurs, an organized damaging wind event could materialize along the leading edge of the cold-pool enhanced squall line. More isolated convection is noted across the High Plains of western KS and these storms should remain somewhat isolated as they propagate southeast. A more concentrated band of high-based convection has evolved from northeast NM into the eastern OK Panhandle. This activity has the potential to produce severe wind gusts as it spreads east this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread southeast across the central Plains this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Weak short-wave trough has topped the western US ridge and is now digging southeast across the central Plains. Robust convection has evolved ahead of this feature with a corridor of mixed supercells and multi cell clusters. An east-west band of severe thunderstorms extends across southern NE and this activity is propagating southeast immediately ahead of the short wave. 1km AGL inflow is roughly 30-35kt into this activity and LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly this evening into northeast KS. This complex should grow upscale as it advances downstream. If this occurs, an organized damaging wind event could materialize along the leading edge of the cold-pool enhanced squall line. More isolated convection is noted across the High Plains of western KS and these storms should remain somewhat isolated as they propagate southeast. A more concentrated band of high-based convection has evolved from northeast NM into the eastern OK Panhandle. This activity has the potential to produce severe wind gusts as it spreads east this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/08/2024 Read more

MD 1195 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396...397... FOR NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1195 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Areas affected...Northwest KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...397... Valid 072330Z - 080100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396, 397 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado will spread eastward this evening. DISCUSSION...A longer-lived supercell that earlier developed across southwest NE is currently moving into northwest KS, with additional development noted to its south along a surface confluence zone. Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) and favorable deep-layer shear (with effective shear of around 50 kt) will continue to support supercell potential into the early evening as convection spreads eastward. Large hail (possibly golfball to baseball size) may remain the most prominent severe hazard in the short term, given the supercell mode and favorable midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy, though isolated severe gusts will also be possible. In addition, some increase in low-level flow has been noted in the KUEX and KDDC VWP, with backed surface winds and some increase in low-level moisture noted downstream of the ongoing supercells. This could support a brief tornado threat as well. With the ongoing increase in storm coverage and some continued strengthening of the low-level jet expected this evening, some upscale growth of this storm cluster will be possible with time, which would potentially be accompanied by an increasing severe-wind threat. ..Dean.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39930065 39949970 39559902 39189904 38819969 38910107 39130135 39450099 39590091 39930065 Read more

WW 0397 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 397 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195 ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...ICT...TOP...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 397 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-080140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT KSC005-009-013-017-027-029-041-043-053-061-085-087-089-105-111- 113-115-117-123-127-131-139-141-143-147-149-157-159-161-163-167- 169-177-183-197-201-080140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BARTON BROWN CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN ELLSWORTH GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JEWELL LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC Read more

WW 0397 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 397 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195 ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...ICT...TOP...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 397 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-080140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT KSC005-009-013-017-027-029-041-043-053-061-085-087-089-105-111- 113-115-117-123-127-131-139-141-143-147-149-157-159-161-163-167- 169-177-183-197-201-080140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BARTON BROWN CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN ELLSWORTH GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JEWELL LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC Read more

WW 0396 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 396 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CAO TO 5 NNE GUY TO 35 ESE LAA TO 35 SE LIC. ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 396 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-061-080140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIOWA KSC007-025-033-039-047-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081- 083-093-097-101-109-119-135-137-145-151-153-165-171-175-179-185- 187-189-193-195-199-203-080140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LOGAN MEADE NESS NORTON PAWNEE PRATT RAWLINS RUSH SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN Read more

WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE IML TO 15 E BBW TO 15 NW OFK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC011-019-041-047-063-077-079-081-085-093-119-121-125-141-143- 163-175-185-080140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUFFALO CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HAYES HOWARD MADISON MERRICK NANCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE IML TO 15 E BBW TO 15 NW OFK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC011-019-041-047-063-077-079-081-085-093-119-121-125-141-143- 163-175-185-080140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUFFALO CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HAYES HOWARD MADISON MERRICK NANCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE IML TO 15 E BBW TO 15 NW OFK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC011-019-041-047-063-077-079-081-085-093-119-121-125-141-143- 163-175-185-080140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUFFALO CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HAYES HOWARD MADISON MERRICK NANCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE IML TO 15 E BBW TO 15 NW OFK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC011-019-041-047-063-077-079-081-085-093-119-121-125-141-143- 163-175-185-080140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUFFALO CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HAYES HOWARD MADISON MERRICK NANCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE IML TO 15 E BBW TO 15 NW OFK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC011-019-041-047-063-077-079-081-085-093-119-121-125-141-143- 163-175-185-080140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUFFALO CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HAYES HOWARD MADISON MERRICK NANCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 395 SEVERE TSTM NE 071855Z - 080200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase through mid/late afternoon, initially across north-central Nebraska. This includes the potential for supercells capable of very large hail, and possibly some tornado risk. Over time, storms will merge, with a broader complex of southeastward-moving storms likely evolving regionally by early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Ainsworth NE to 5 miles west southwest of Kearney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1194 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL ND AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1194 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southwest/south-central ND and northwest/north-central SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072316Z - 080045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A localized strong to severe storm capable of marginally severe hail and locally strong/damaging winds is possible during the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development is underway over southwest ND into northwest SD -- generally focused along a weak east/west-oriented stationary boundary. This activity is developing along the northern edge of a plume of weak surface-based instability, and this weak instability is the main mitigating factor for a more robust severe-storm risk. However, proximity forecast soundings indicate strong deep-layer shear (around 60 kt of effective shear) -- characterized by a long/straight hodograph. This wind profile may support brief updraft organization (with transient midlevel rotation) -- capable of producing marginally severe hail (up to 1 inch) and locally strong/damaging winds (45-60 mph) for the next couple hours. Overall, the weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Weinman/Majchrowski/Bunting.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45680266 45950261 46270240 46430217 46530162 46460076 46170000 45519981 44970025 44850105 45040208 45310256 45680266 Read more

MD 1193 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396... FOR SOUTHEAST CO AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NM INTO THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Areas affected...Southeast CO and extreme northeast NM into the OK/northern TX Panhandles and southwest KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396... Valid 072254Z - 080030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind and hail will spread eastward into this evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple loosely organized storm clusters are ongoing late this afternoon across parts of southeast CO, extreme northeast NM, and southwest KS. Convection is ongoing within a favorably sheared and rather hot and well-mixed environment, which will favor the potential for at least isolated severe gusts (as evidenced by a recent 55 kt gust in Clayton, NM) as storms spread eastward into the evening. The environment into southwest KS is somewhat more moist and unstable, and some isolated hail will be possible with the strongest storms in this region. CINH increases with eastward extent into eastern portions of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS, so some uncertainty remains regarding how far east the severe threat will spread into the early evening. However, a short-term threat for isolated severe wind/hail remains evident across extreme southwest KS into the western/central TX/OK Panhandles and northeast NM. ..Dean.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35820213 35490351 35340447 35800456 37390216 37779996 37059980 36330042 35820213 Read more