Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico. Some slow
development is possible this weekend and early next week while the
system meanders near the coast of southern Mexico and Guatemala.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

493
ABPZ20 KNHC 111721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico. Some slow
development is possible this weekend and early next week while the
system meanders near the coast of southern Mexico and Guatemala.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more