Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys/Southern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, as an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Illinois. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although a cap is forecast to be in place during the day, it should weaken by early evening to allow for convective initiation. As low-level convergence increases near the front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability early Thursday evening will be in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. In this area, NAM forecast soundings at 03Z/Friday have MLCAPE approaching 5000 J/kg, with 0-6 km around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This would be favorable for supercell development. Although large hail would be possible with the strongest of storms, the warm air aloft may temper the hail threat somewhat. Northwest mid-level flow could also favor linear development. Short line segments that can become organized could have a wind-damage threat. The strong instability could enable the severe threat to continue into the late evening, or even into the overnight period. Further northeast into the southern Great Lakes, a narrow corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place ahead of the front in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, and move southeastward across Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A couple persistent clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the mid evening. NAM Forecast soundings in southern Lower Michigan during the early evening have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This will likely support supercell development, with a potential for large hail. An isolated tornado threat may also develop with the strongest of supercells. A potential for severe line segments with damaging wind gusts will also exist. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Thursday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from far northeast Colorado into far northern Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon. Although lapse rates will be very steep, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys/Southern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, as an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Illinois. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although a cap is forecast to be in place during the day, it should weaken by early evening to allow for convective initiation. As low-level convergence increases near the front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability early Thursday evening will be in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. In this area, NAM forecast soundings at 03Z/Friday have MLCAPE approaching 5000 J/kg, with 0-6 km around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This would be favorable for supercell development. Although large hail would be possible with the strongest of storms, the warm air aloft may temper the hail threat somewhat. Northwest mid-level flow could also favor linear development. Short line segments that can become organized could have a wind-damage threat. The strong instability could enable the severe threat to continue into the late evening, or even into the overnight period. Further northeast into the southern Great Lakes, a narrow corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place ahead of the front in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, and move southeastward across Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A couple persistent clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the mid evening. NAM Forecast soundings in southern Lower Michigan during the early evening have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This will likely support supercell development, with a potential for large hail. An isolated tornado threat may also develop with the strongest of supercells. A potential for severe line segments with damaging wind gusts will also exist. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Thursday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from far northeast Colorado into far northern Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon. Although lapse rates will be very steep, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys/Southern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, as an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Illinois. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although a cap is forecast to be in place during the day, it should weaken by early evening to allow for convective initiation. As low-level convergence increases near the front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability early Thursday evening will be in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. In this area, NAM forecast soundings at 03Z/Friday have MLCAPE approaching 5000 J/kg, with 0-6 km around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This would be favorable for supercell development. Although large hail would be possible with the strongest of storms, the warm air aloft may temper the hail threat somewhat. Northwest mid-level flow could also favor linear development. Short line segments that can become organized could have a wind-damage threat. The strong instability could enable the severe threat to continue into the late evening, or even into the overnight period. Further northeast into the southern Great Lakes, a narrow corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place ahead of the front in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, and move southeastward across Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A couple persistent clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the mid evening. NAM Forecast soundings in southern Lower Michigan during the early evening have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This will likely support supercell development, with a potential for large hail. An isolated tornado threat may also develop with the strongest of supercells. A potential for severe line segments with damaging wind gusts will also exist. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Thursday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from far northeast Colorado into far northern Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon. Although lapse rates will be very steep, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys/Southern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, as an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Illinois. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although a cap is forecast to be in place during the day, it should weaken by early evening to allow for convective initiation. As low-level convergence increases near the front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability early Thursday evening will be in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. In this area, NAM forecast soundings at 03Z/Friday have MLCAPE approaching 5000 J/kg, with 0-6 km around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This would be favorable for supercell development. Although large hail would be possible with the strongest of storms, the warm air aloft may temper the hail threat somewhat. Northwest mid-level flow could also favor linear development. Short line segments that can become organized could have a wind-damage threat. The strong instability could enable the severe threat to continue into the late evening, or even into the overnight period. Further northeast into the southern Great Lakes, a narrow corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place ahead of the front in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, and move southeastward across Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A couple persistent clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the mid evening. NAM Forecast soundings in southern Lower Michigan during the early evening have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This will likely support supercell development, with a potential for large hail. An isolated tornado threat may also develop with the strongest of supercells. A potential for severe line segments with damaging wind gusts will also exist. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Thursday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from far northeast Colorado into far northern Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon. Although lapse rates will be very steep, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico or Guatemala. Some
slow development is possible this weekend and early next week while
the system meanders near the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail to 3 inch diameter, damaging wind gusts to 65 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest today. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... A 50-60 kt westerly 500 mb jet will overspread MN and portions of northern WI today. As this occurs, an EML plume will advect east into MN and vicinity, with steep midlevel lapse rates to near 8 C/km forecast. Meanwhile a surface trough/cold front will shift east across the eastern Dakotas and MN through the period. Ahead of the surface boundary, southerly low-level flow will aid in low-level theta-e advection, and surface dewpoints will climb into the 60s F. This moist boundary-layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong destabilization, and MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg are expected. Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed in the mid/upper levels, will support supercells. Forecast soundings show enlarged/looping low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight above 3 km. This environment will be very favorable for supercells capable of producing very large hail. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially across parts of northern MN where better organized/more intense supercells are expected and SRH increases in the 22-00z time frame. Isolated damaging gusts also will be possible. Confidence has increased sufficiently regarding coverage/spatial extent of a corridor of greater significant hail potential, supporting an upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across parts of northern MN. Severe potential will gradually diminish across northern WI and the Upper Peninsula where instability will be less and stronger inhibition is forecast. Further south across eastern SD/southern MN/northern IA, clusters of elevated storms may develop early in the day in response strong warm advection. This activity will initially be elevated, but could still pose a risk for hail. With time into the afternoon as additional heating/moistening occurs, this activity could become more surface-based. If this occurs, damaging gusts in addition to hail will be possible across southern MN/northern IA. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTH TEXAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms are possible across south Florida, southeast Colorado and south Texas for a few more hours this evening. ...TX... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been removed and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) trimmed to encompass ongoing convection. Overall storm organization has been messy and struggling to maintain severe intensity within a weakly unstable and modestly sheared environment. A stronger supercell was noted around 00z near the Rio Grande, but strong outflow shifting southwest will likely have deleterious effects on any further convection developing near the River. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two producing locally gusty winds and hail will be possible into the early overnight hours across parts of south TX. ...FL... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) continues across south FL this evening. A few weakly rotating storms have been noted offshore, with one more recently over the Everglades. A brief tornado or two will be possible for another couple of hours this evening. ...CO/NM... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been trimmed and is confined to ongoing convection across southeast CO. Isolated gusty winds and hail main continue with this activity for another few hours this evening before weakening. ...Upper Midwest... Severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the evening/overnight. Very weak instability across the region is unlikely to sustain severe convection and overall coverage of storms will be low. ...Mid-Atlantic... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will meander over northeast NC and far southeast VA the next few hours. However, very weak instability and low thunderstorm coverage will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTH TEXAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms are possible across south Florida, southeast Colorado and south Texas for a few more hours this evening. ...TX... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been removed and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) trimmed to encompass ongoing convection. Overall storm organization has been messy and struggling to maintain severe intensity within a weakly unstable and modestly sheared environment. A stronger supercell was noted around 00z near the Rio Grande, but strong outflow shifting southwest will likely have deleterious effects on any further convection developing near the River. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two producing locally gusty winds and hail will be possible into the early overnight hours across parts of south TX. ...FL... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) continues across south FL this evening. A few weakly rotating storms have been noted offshore, with one more recently over the Everglades. A brief tornado or two will be possible for another couple of hours this evening. ...CO/NM... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been trimmed and is confined to ongoing convection across southeast CO. Isolated gusty winds and hail main continue with this activity for another few hours this evening before weakening. ...Upper Midwest... Severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the evening/overnight. Very weak instability across the region is unlikely to sustain severe convection and overall coverage of storms will be low. ...Mid-Atlantic... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will meander over northeast NC and far southeast VA the next few hours. However, very weak instability and low thunderstorm coverage will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTH TEXAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms are possible across south Florida, southeast Colorado and south Texas for a few more hours this evening. ...TX... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been removed and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) trimmed to encompass ongoing convection. Overall storm organization has been messy and struggling to maintain severe intensity within a weakly unstable and modestly sheared environment. A stronger supercell was noted around 00z near the Rio Grande, but strong outflow shifting southwest will likely have deleterious effects on any further convection developing near the River. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two producing locally gusty winds and hail will be possible into the early overnight hours across parts of south TX. ...FL... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) continues across south FL this evening. A few weakly rotating storms have been noted offshore, with one more recently over the Everglades. A brief tornado or two will be possible for another couple of hours this evening. ...CO/NM... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been trimmed and is confined to ongoing convection across southeast CO. Isolated gusty winds and hail main continue with this activity for another few hours this evening before weakening. ...Upper Midwest... Severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the evening/overnight. Very weak instability across the region is unlikely to sustain severe convection and overall coverage of storms will be low. ...Mid-Atlantic... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will meander over northeast NC and far southeast VA the next few hours. However, very weak instability and low thunderstorm coverage will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 06/12/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 11 23:31:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 11 23:31:01 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico. Some slow
development is possible this weekend and early next week while the
system meanders near the coast of southern Mexico and Guatemala.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

MD 1234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...PERMIAN BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Areas affected...Texas Hill Country...Permian Basin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112053Z - 112330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few of storms may become strong enough to briefly produce hail and/or damaging gusts from the Permian Basin into the Texas Hill Country this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined outflow boundary just ahead of the showers and thunderstorms over central TX. Convergence along the western portion of the boundary likely contributed to the initiation of the robust thunderstorm over Schleicher County TX. The airmass downstream of this outflow is moist, with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, but warm temperatures aloft are mitigating the overall buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Vertical shear is modest as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear is currently around 30 kt. Even so, persistent low-level convergence along the outflow boundary, particularly the western portion of the boundary, will likely lead to the development of additional thunderstorms. A few of these storms may become strong enough to briefly produce hail and/or damaging gusts. Isolated coverage and limited intensity and duration is anticipated, precluding the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Smith.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29460104 29730137 29930197 30720212 31000140 30490009 30189895 30279799 29489774 29019825 28719899 28809980 28970032 29460104 Read more

MD 1235 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1235 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112055Z - 112300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing along outflow and/or sea-breeze boundaries may pose a hail/wind threat this afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will remain sparse, precluding watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been ongoing along the eastern NC coast for much of the afternoon, but earlier convection displayed somewhat poor organization/longevity. More recently (within the past 30 minutes), convective intensity has increased based on GOES IR cloud top temperatures and lightning trends - likely the result of increasing SBCAPE associated with peak diurnal warming. Forecast soundings suggest that 30-40 knot winds within the 5-6 km layer should elongate hodographs sufficient to promote some storm organization of the stronger/deeper cells with an attendant risk of large hail. Dewpoint depressions between 20-30 F are noted inland, suggesting that a deep, well-mixed boundary layer is in place that may promote strong to severe downburst winds. However, east/northeasterly storm motions to the cool side of the sea-breeze/outflow boundaries may limit the potential for severe downbursts. Additional convection along the boundaries appears possible, but in the absence of stronger forcing for ascent, thunderstorm coverage (and any associated severe hazards) should remain very limited. ..Moore/Smith.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... LAT...LON 36307704 36547663 36547621 36337593 36047585 35747615 35457640 35197640 34997644 34917673 34907700 35097717 35397719 35487721 35887718 36307704 Read more