Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the southern and central High Plains. An axis of instability is forecast to be further to the northwest across the western Dakotas. As a mid-level jet passes northeastward across the northern Rockies, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be strong enough for an isolated severe thunderstorms in parts of the northern High Plains. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, but uncertainty exists concerning the spatial distribution of the threat. The trough in the central Plains is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with a large pocket of instability located in its wake across the central Plains. Although large-scale ascent within this unstable airmass is expected to be weak, isolated severe storms could develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the northwest, model forecasts show potential for storm development in parts of the northern High Plains Sunday evening. If this were to occur, MCS development, and an isolated severe threat, could occur across parts of the northern Plains Sunday night. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, a mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward into the northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the region during the afternoon and evening, in association with any shortwave trough that can translate through the flow. The models suggest there is enough potential on Monday for a more widespread severe threat, to add a 15 percent contour in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. As the trough moves through southeastern Canada on Wednesday, severe storms would be possible in parts of the Northeast. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the southern and central High Plains. An axis of instability is forecast to be further to the northwest across the western Dakotas. As a mid-level jet passes northeastward across the northern Rockies, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be strong enough for an isolated severe thunderstorms in parts of the northern High Plains. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, but uncertainty exists concerning the spatial distribution of the threat. The trough in the central Plains is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with a large pocket of instability located in its wake across the central Plains. Although large-scale ascent within this unstable airmass is expected to be weak, isolated severe storms could develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the northwest, model forecasts show potential for storm development in parts of the northern High Plains Sunday evening. If this were to occur, MCS development, and an isolated severe threat, could occur across parts of the northern Plains Sunday night. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, a mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward into the northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the region during the afternoon and evening, in association with any shortwave trough that can translate through the flow. The models suggest there is enough potential on Monday for a more widespread severe threat, to add a 15 percent contour in parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. As the trough moves through southeastern Canada on Wednesday, severe storms would be possible in parts of the Northeast. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern Plains on Friday. Behind the ridge, a northwest-to-southeast corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon to the west of the ridge axis from far northeast Colorado and far northern Kansas into central Nebraska. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across Nebraska and could impact southeastern South Dakota during the late evening or overnight period. MCS development will be possible across parts of the central Plains. Strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Kansas into western Nebraska, where model consensus has MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability axis for North Platte, NE at 00Z/Saturday have substantial amount of directional shear in the low-levels, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support severe storm development during the late afternoon. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. However, temperatures near 700 mb are very warm, and generally above 12C. This could temper the hail threat some. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if an cluster can organize, or if a linear MCS can develop during the evening. ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track slowly eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong deep-layer southerly flow overspreads the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. This will promote the development of a broad surface low over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its southern periphery. In response, around 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds will develop across portions of northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV -- where a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer and single-digit RH will be in place. Given increasingly dry fuels across these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track slowly eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong deep-layer southerly flow overspreads the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. This will promote the development of a broad surface low over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its southern periphery. In response, around 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds will develop across portions of northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV -- where a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer and single-digit RH will be in place. Given increasingly dry fuels across these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track slowly eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong deep-layer southerly flow overspreads the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. This will promote the development of a broad surface low over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its southern periphery. In response, around 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds will develop across portions of northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV -- where a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer and single-digit RH will be in place. Given increasingly dry fuels across these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track slowly eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong deep-layer southerly flow overspreads the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. This will promote the development of a broad surface low over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its southern periphery. In response, around 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds will develop across portions of northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV -- where a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer and single-digit RH will be in place. Given increasingly dry fuels across these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track slowly eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong deep-layer southerly flow overspreads the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. This will promote the development of a broad surface low over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its southern periphery. In response, around 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds will develop across portions of northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV -- where a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer and single-digit RH will be in place. Given increasingly dry fuels across these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys/Southern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, as an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Illinois. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will likely result in moderate instability by afternoon. Although a cap is forecast to be in place during the day, it should weaken by early evening to allow for convective initiation. As low-level convergence increases near the front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability early Thursday evening will be in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. In this area, NAM forecast soundings at 03Z/Friday have MLCAPE approaching 5000 J/kg, with 0-6 km around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This would be favorable for supercell development. Although large hail would be possible with the strongest of storms, the warm air aloft may temper the hail threat somewhat. Northwest mid-level flow could also favor linear development. Short line segments that can become organized could have a wind-damage threat. The strong instability could enable the severe threat to continue into the late evening, or even into the overnight period. Further northeast into the southern Great Lakes, a narrow corridor of moderate instability will likely be in place ahead of the front in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, and move southeastward across Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A couple persistent clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the mid evening. NAM Forecast soundings in southern Lower Michigan during the early evening have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This will likely support supercell development, with a potential for large hail. An isolated tornado threat may also develop with the strongest of supercells. A potential for severe line segments with damaging wind gusts will also exist. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Thursday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from far northeast Colorado into far northern Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon. Although lapse rates will be very steep, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024 Read more