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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. More isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...Central/east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... A front, roughly oriented west/northwest to east/southeast, will transition northward as a warm front across central/southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. Associated with warm/moist advection, elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well to the north of the surface reflection of the front. There is some potential that this activity could intensify and organize into the afternoon, possibly including some elevated supercells in the presence of moderate buoyancy and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Large hail and locally strong winds could occur. Stronger heating/destabilization near and immediately south of the northward-shifting front may support surface-based storm development near the boundary into the afternoon, potentially from south-central into southeast Texas including the coastal plain. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear would support supercells, with the possibility for all hazards including a tornado risk as well as large hail and damaging winds. There will be potential for forward-propagating clusters to evolve by late afternoon into this evening across far southeast Texas into Louisiana, with at least some severe risk continuing tonight particularly near and immediately south of the effective warm front. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains... While richer moisture will stay confined to central/south Texas, a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization will be possible along the surface trough/effective dryline from the Texas South Plains vicinity northward into western Kansas. Greater storm coverage is expected across the northern portion of this corridor across western Kansas, in closer proximity to the primary mid/upper-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a hail threat with the strongest storms. However, with weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer shear, convection is expected to be only be weakly organized. Farther south, deep-layer flow/shear will increase southward along the dryline into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and the Texas South Plains. Ongoing early day thunderstorms and the potential for lingering low-level cloud cover are key factors of uncertainty for the extent and likelihood of near-dryline deep convection later today. Pending a scattering of lingering clouds and adequate diurnal destabilization, at least isolated supercell development is plausible along the dryline during the afternoon, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. This scenario currently appears most probable across the Concho Valley vicinity and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Moisture will likely remain rather limited across the upper Great Lakes vicinity in advance of the cold front, However, strong heating will support some destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Moderate west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support some potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may pose a threat for localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. More isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...Central/east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... A front, roughly oriented west/northwest to east/southeast, will transition northward as a warm front across central/southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. Associated with warm/moist advection, elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well to the north of the surface reflection of the front. There is some potential that this activity could intensify and organize into the afternoon, possibly including some elevated supercells in the presence of moderate buoyancy and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Large hail and locally strong winds could occur. Stronger heating/destabilization near and immediately south of the northward-shifting front may support surface-based storm development near the boundary into the afternoon, potentially from south-central into southeast Texas including the coastal plain. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear would support supercells, with the possibility for all hazards including a tornado risk as well as large hail and damaging winds. There will be potential for forward-propagating clusters to evolve by late afternoon into this evening across far southeast Texas into Louisiana, with at least some severe risk continuing tonight particularly near and immediately south of the effective warm front. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains... While richer moisture will stay confined to central/south Texas, a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization will be possible along the surface trough/effective dryline from the Texas South Plains vicinity northward into western Kansas. Greater storm coverage is expected across the northern portion of this corridor across western Kansas, in closer proximity to the primary mid/upper-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a hail threat with the strongest storms. However, with weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer shear, convection is expected to be only be weakly organized. Farther south, deep-layer flow/shear will increase southward along the dryline into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and the Texas South Plains. Ongoing early day thunderstorms and the potential for lingering low-level cloud cover are key factors of uncertainty for the extent and likelihood of near-dryline deep convection later today. Pending a scattering of lingering clouds and adequate diurnal destabilization, at least isolated supercell development is plausible along the dryline during the afternoon, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. This scenario currently appears most probable across the Concho Valley vicinity and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Moisture will likely remain rather limited across the upper Great Lakes vicinity in advance of the cold front, However, strong heating will support some destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Moderate west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support some potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may pose a threat for localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer.. 05/12/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. ...Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast on Tuesday. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. This evolution will place large-scale forcing for ascent and strong deep-layer vertical shear across the TN Valley and Southeast. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning from the Lower MS Valley into much of the Southeast, with these storms likely continuing eastward across GA and SC throughout the day Tuesday. There is some potential for these storms to restrengthen as they move into a destabilizing airmass across GA and SC Tuesday afternoon. Damaging gusts would be the primary hazard. Farther west across MS, AL, and GA, the primary uncertainty across much of the region is whether or not the airmass can recover ahead of a weak surface trough. Guidance varies on this recovery, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support organization and some severe potential with any mature updrafts. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm strength. ..Mosier.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. ...Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast on Tuesday. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. This evolution will place large-scale forcing for ascent and strong deep-layer vertical shear across the TN Valley and Southeast. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning from the Lower MS Valley into much of the Southeast, with these storms likely continuing eastward across GA and SC throughout the day Tuesday. There is some potential for these storms to restrengthen as they move into a destabilizing airmass across GA and SC Tuesday afternoon. Damaging gusts would be the primary hazard. Farther west across MS, AL, and GA, the primary uncertainty across much of the region is whether or not the airmass can recover ahead of a weak surface trough. Guidance varies on this recovery, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support organization and some severe potential with any mature updrafts. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm strength. ..Mosier.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. ...Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast on Tuesday. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. This evolution will place large-scale forcing for ascent and strong deep-layer vertical shear across the TN Valley and Southeast. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning from the Lower MS Valley into much of the Southeast, with these storms likely continuing eastward across GA and SC throughout the day Tuesday. There is some potential for these storms to restrengthen as they move into a destabilizing airmass across GA and SC Tuesday afternoon. Damaging gusts would be the primary hazard. Farther west across MS, AL, and GA, the primary uncertainty across much of the region is whether or not the airmass can recover ahead of a weak surface trough. Guidance varies on this recovery, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support organization and some severe potential with any mature updrafts. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm strength. ..Mosier.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. ...Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast on Tuesday. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. This evolution will place large-scale forcing for ascent and strong deep-layer vertical shear across the TN Valley and Southeast. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning from the Lower MS Valley into much of the Southeast, with these storms likely continuing eastward across GA and SC throughout the day Tuesday. There is some potential for these storms to restrengthen as they move into a destabilizing airmass across GA and SC Tuesday afternoon. Damaging gusts would be the primary hazard. Farther west across MS, AL, and GA, the primary uncertainty across much of the region is whether or not the airmass can recover ahead of a weak surface trough. Guidance varies on this recovery, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support organization and some severe potential with any mature updrafts. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm strength. ..Mosier.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. ...Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast on Tuesday. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. This evolution will place large-scale forcing for ascent and strong deep-layer vertical shear across the TN Valley and Southeast. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning from the Lower MS Valley into much of the Southeast, with these storms likely continuing eastward across GA and SC throughout the day Tuesday. There is some potential for these storms to restrengthen as they move into a destabilizing airmass across GA and SC Tuesday afternoon. Damaging gusts would be the primary hazard. Farther west across MS, AL, and GA, the primary uncertainty across much of the region is whether or not the airmass can recover ahead of a weak surface trough. Guidance varies on this recovery, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support organization and some severe potential with any mature updrafts. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm strength. ..Mosier.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more