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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756 ..WENDT..05/12/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-099-145-157-161-185-201-225-289-291- 293-309-313-331-339-347-373-395-407-455-471-473-477-121740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE CORYELL FALLS FORT BEND FREESTONE GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756 ..WENDT..05/12/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-099-145-157-161-185-201-225-289-291- 293-309-313-331-339-347-373-395-407-455-471-473-477-121740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE CORYELL FALLS FORT BEND FREESTONE GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/12/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-099-145-161-185-225-289-293-309-313- 331-339-347-373-395-407-455-471-121640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GRIMES HOUSTON LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0755 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0755 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Central into East Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121337Z - 121530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible with elevated storms in central Texas. Gradual intensification is possible as is additional storm development. Timing of this is not yet clear. A watch is possible depending on convective trends. DISCUSSION...Modest warm advection at low levels and gradual height falls from the approaching trough from the west will likely continue to support storm maintenance/development along and near a warm front stretching from the upper Texas Gulf Coast to the Edwards Plateau. Effective shear of greater than 50 kts and steep lapse rates observed in the 12Z DRT sounding suggest that storms, at least occasionally supercellular, would be capable of producing large hail. An isolated damaging gust is possible, but should be limited by the presently stable conditions near the surface. With time, continued theta-e advection and muted surface heating should help to destabilize the environment and storms will eventually become near/surface-based. Storm coverage is uncertain in the short term, but a watch may eventually become necessary as coverage and intensity is expected to increase by the afternoon. Trends will be monitored. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30839838 31459817 31719525 31389457 30949470 30509593 30369733 30469769 30839838 Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0232 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun May 12 13:49:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. More isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...Central/east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... A front, roughly oriented west/northwest to east/southeast, will transition northward as a warm front across central/southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. Associated with warm/moist advection, elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well to the north of the surface reflection of the front. There is some potential that this activity could intensify and organize into the afternoon, possibly including some elevated supercells in the presence of moderate buoyancy and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Large hail and locally strong winds could occur. Stronger heating/destabilization near and immediately south of the northward-shifting front may support surface-based storm development near the boundary into the afternoon, potentially from south-central into southeast Texas including the coastal plain. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear would support supercells, with the possibility for all hazards including a tornado risk as well as large hail and damaging winds. There will be potential for forward-propagating clusters to evolve by late afternoon into this evening across far southeast Texas into Louisiana, with at least some severe risk continuing tonight particularly near and immediately south of the effective warm front. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains... While richer moisture will stay confined to central/south Texas, a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization will be possible along the surface trough/effective dryline from the Texas South Plains vicinity northward into western Kansas. Greater storm coverage is expected across the northern portion of this corridor across western Kansas, in closer proximity to the primary mid/upper-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a hail threat with the strongest storms. However, with weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer shear, convection is expected to be only be weakly organized. Farther south, deep-layer flow/shear will increase southward along the dryline into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and the Texas South Plains. Ongoing early day thunderstorms and the potential for lingering low-level cloud cover are key factors of uncertainty for the extent and likelihood of near-dryline deep convection later today. Pending a scattering of lingering clouds and adequate diurnal destabilization, at least isolated supercell development is plausible along the dryline during the afternoon, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. This scenario currently appears most probable across the Concho Valley vicinity and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Moisture will likely remain rather limited across the upper Great Lakes vicinity in advance of the cold front, However, strong heating will support some destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Moderate west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support some potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may pose a threat for localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. More isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...Central/east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... A front, roughly oriented west/northwest to east/southeast, will transition northward as a warm front across central/southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. Associated with warm/moist advection, elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well to the north of the surface reflection of the front. There is some potential that this activity could intensify and organize into the afternoon, possibly including some elevated supercells in the presence of moderate buoyancy and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Large hail and locally strong winds could occur. Stronger heating/destabilization near and immediately south of the northward-shifting front may support surface-based storm development near the boundary into the afternoon, potentially from south-central into southeast Texas including the coastal plain. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear would support supercells, with the possibility for all hazards including a tornado risk as well as large hail and damaging winds. There will be potential for forward-propagating clusters to evolve by late afternoon into this evening across far southeast Texas into Louisiana, with at least some severe risk continuing tonight particularly near and immediately south of the effective warm front. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains... While richer moisture will stay confined to central/south Texas, a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization will be possible along the surface trough/effective dryline from the Texas South Plains vicinity northward into western Kansas. Greater storm coverage is expected across the northern portion of this corridor across western Kansas, in closer proximity to the primary mid/upper-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a hail threat with the strongest storms. However, with weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer shear, convection is expected to be only be weakly organized. Farther south, deep-layer flow/shear will increase southward along the dryline into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and the Texas South Plains. Ongoing early day thunderstorms and the potential for lingering low-level cloud cover are key factors of uncertainty for the extent and likelihood of near-dryline deep convection later today. Pending a scattering of lingering clouds and adequate diurnal destabilization, at least isolated supercell development is plausible along the dryline during the afternoon, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. This scenario currently appears most probable across the Concho Valley vicinity and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Moisture will likely remain rather limited across the upper Great Lakes vicinity in advance of the cold front, However, strong heating will support some destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Moderate west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support some potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may pose a threat for localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. More isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...Central/east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... A front, roughly oriented west/northwest to east/southeast, will transition northward as a warm front across central/southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. Associated with warm/moist advection, elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well to the north of the surface reflection of the front. There is some potential that this activity could intensify and organize into the afternoon, possibly including some elevated supercells in the presence of moderate buoyancy and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Large hail and locally strong winds could occur. Stronger heating/destabilization near and immediately south of the northward-shifting front may support surface-based storm development near the boundary into the afternoon, potentially from south-central into southeast Texas including the coastal plain. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear would support supercells, with the possibility for all hazards including a tornado risk as well as large hail and damaging winds. There will be potential for forward-propagating clusters to evolve by late afternoon into this evening across far southeast Texas into Louisiana, with at least some severe risk continuing tonight particularly near and immediately south of the effective warm front. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains... While richer moisture will stay confined to central/south Texas, a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization will be possible along the surface trough/effective dryline from the Texas South Plains vicinity northward into western Kansas. Greater storm coverage is expected across the northern portion of this corridor across western Kansas, in closer proximity to the primary mid/upper-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a hail threat with the strongest storms. However, with weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer shear, convection is expected to be only be weakly organized. Farther south, deep-layer flow/shear will increase southward along the dryline into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and the Texas South Plains. Ongoing early day thunderstorms and the potential for lingering low-level cloud cover are key factors of uncertainty for the extent and likelihood of near-dryline deep convection later today. Pending a scattering of lingering clouds and adequate diurnal destabilization, at least isolated supercell development is plausible along the dryline during the afternoon, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. This scenario currently appears most probable across the Concho Valley vicinity and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Moisture will likely remain rather limited across the upper Great Lakes vicinity in advance of the cold front, However, strong heating will support some destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Moderate west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support some potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may pose a threat for localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. More isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...Central/east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... A front, roughly oriented west/northwest to east/southeast, will transition northward as a warm front across central/southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. Associated with warm/moist advection, elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well to the north of the surface reflection of the front. There is some potential that this activity could intensify and organize into the afternoon, possibly including some elevated supercells in the presence of moderate buoyancy and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Large hail and locally strong winds could occur. Stronger heating/destabilization near and immediately south of the northward-shifting front may support surface-based storm development near the boundary into the afternoon, potentially from south-central into southeast Texas including the coastal plain. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear would support supercells, with the possibility for all hazards including a tornado risk as well as large hail and damaging winds. There will be potential for forward-propagating clusters to evolve by late afternoon into this evening across far southeast Texas into Louisiana, with at least some severe risk continuing tonight particularly near and immediately south of the effective warm front. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains... While richer moisture will stay confined to central/south Texas, a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization will be possible along the surface trough/effective dryline from the Texas South Plains vicinity northward into western Kansas. Greater storm coverage is expected across the northern portion of this corridor across western Kansas, in closer proximity to the primary mid/upper-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a hail threat with the strongest storms. However, with weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer shear, convection is expected to be only be weakly organized. Farther south, deep-layer flow/shear will increase southward along the dryline into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and the Texas South Plains. Ongoing early day thunderstorms and the potential for lingering low-level cloud cover are key factors of uncertainty for the extent and likelihood of near-dryline deep convection later today. Pending a scattering of lingering clouds and adequate diurnal destabilization, at least isolated supercell development is plausible along the dryline during the afternoon, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. This scenario currently appears most probable across the Concho Valley vicinity and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Moisture will likely remain rather limited across the upper Great Lakes vicinity in advance of the cold front, However, strong heating will support some destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Moderate west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support some potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may pose a threat for localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. More isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...Central/east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... A front, roughly oriented west/northwest to east/southeast, will transition northward as a warm front across central/southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. Associated with warm/moist advection, elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well to the north of the surface reflection of the front. There is some potential that this activity could intensify and organize into the afternoon, possibly including some elevated supercells in the presence of moderate buoyancy and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Large hail and locally strong winds could occur. Stronger heating/destabilization near and immediately south of the northward-shifting front may support surface-based storm development near the boundary into the afternoon, potentially from south-central into southeast Texas including the coastal plain. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear would support supercells, with the possibility for all hazards including a tornado risk as well as large hail and damaging winds. There will be potential for forward-propagating clusters to evolve by late afternoon into this evening across far southeast Texas into Louisiana, with at least some severe risk continuing tonight particularly near and immediately south of the effective warm front. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains... While richer moisture will stay confined to central/south Texas, a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization will be possible along the surface trough/effective dryline from the Texas South Plains vicinity northward into western Kansas. Greater storm coverage is expected across the northern portion of this corridor across western Kansas, in closer proximity to the primary mid/upper-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a hail threat with the strongest storms. However, with weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer shear, convection is expected to be only be weakly organized. Farther south, deep-layer flow/shear will increase southward along the dryline into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and the Texas South Plains. Ongoing early day thunderstorms and the potential for lingering low-level cloud cover are key factors of uncertainty for the extent and likelihood of near-dryline deep convection later today. Pending a scattering of lingering clouds and adequate diurnal destabilization, at least isolated supercell development is plausible along the dryline during the afternoon, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. This scenario currently appears most probable across the Concho Valley vicinity and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Moisture will likely remain rather limited across the upper Great Lakes vicinity in advance of the cold front, However, strong heating will support some destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Moderate west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support some potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may pose a threat for localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. More isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...Central/east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... A front, roughly oriented west/northwest to east/southeast, will transition northward as a warm front across central/southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. Associated with warm/moist advection, elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well to the north of the surface reflection of the front. There is some potential that this activity could intensify and organize into the afternoon, possibly including some elevated supercells in the presence of moderate buoyancy and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Large hail and locally strong winds could occur. Stronger heating/destabilization near and immediately south of the northward-shifting front may support surface-based storm development near the boundary into the afternoon, potentially from south-central into southeast Texas including the coastal plain. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear would support supercells, with the possibility for all hazards including a tornado risk as well as large hail and damaging winds. There will be potential for forward-propagating clusters to evolve by late afternoon into this evening across far southeast Texas into Louisiana, with at least some severe risk continuing tonight particularly near and immediately south of the effective warm front. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains... While richer moisture will stay confined to central/south Texas, a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization will be possible along the surface trough/effective dryline from the Texas South Plains vicinity northward into western Kansas. Greater storm coverage is expected across the northern portion of this corridor across western Kansas, in closer proximity to the primary mid/upper-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a hail threat with the strongest storms. However, with weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer shear, convection is expected to be only be weakly organized. Farther south, deep-layer flow/shear will increase southward along the dryline into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and the Texas South Plains. Ongoing early day thunderstorms and the potential for lingering low-level cloud cover are key factors of uncertainty for the extent and likelihood of near-dryline deep convection later today. Pending a scattering of lingering clouds and adequate diurnal destabilization, at least isolated supercell development is plausible along the dryline during the afternoon, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. This scenario currently appears most probable across the Concho Valley vicinity and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Moisture will likely remain rather limited across the upper Great Lakes vicinity in advance of the cold front, However, strong heating will support some destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Moderate west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support some potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may pose a threat for localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. More isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...Central/east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... A front, roughly oriented west/northwest to east/southeast, will transition northward as a warm front across central/southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. Associated with warm/moist advection, elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well to the north of the surface reflection of the front. There is some potential that this activity could intensify and organize into the afternoon, possibly including some elevated supercells in the presence of moderate buoyancy and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Large hail and locally strong winds could occur. Stronger heating/destabilization near and immediately south of the northward-shifting front may support surface-based storm development near the boundary into the afternoon, potentially from south-central into southeast Texas including the coastal plain. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear would support supercells, with the possibility for all hazards including a tornado risk as well as large hail and damaging winds. There will be potential for forward-propagating clusters to evolve by late afternoon into this evening across far southeast Texas into Louisiana, with at least some severe risk continuing tonight particularly near and immediately south of the effective warm front. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains... While richer moisture will stay confined to central/south Texas, a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization will be possible along the surface trough/effective dryline from the Texas South Plains vicinity northward into western Kansas. Greater storm coverage is expected across the northern portion of this corridor across western Kansas, in closer proximity to the primary mid/upper-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a hail threat with the strongest storms. However, with weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer shear, convection is expected to be only be weakly organized. Farther south, deep-layer flow/shear will increase southward along the dryline into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and the Texas South Plains. Ongoing early day thunderstorms and the potential for lingering low-level cloud cover are key factors of uncertainty for the extent and likelihood of near-dryline deep convection later today. Pending a scattering of lingering clouds and adequate diurnal destabilization, at least isolated supercell development is plausible along the dryline during the afternoon, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. This scenario currently appears most probable across the Concho Valley vicinity and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Moisture will likely remain rather limited across the upper Great Lakes vicinity in advance of the cold front, However, strong heating will support some destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Moderate west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support some potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may pose a threat for localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. More isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and also across the upper Great Lakes region. ...Central/east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley... A front, roughly oriented west/northwest to east/southeast, will transition northward as a warm front across central/southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. Associated with warm/moist advection, elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well to the north of the surface reflection of the front. There is some potential that this activity could intensify and organize into the afternoon, possibly including some elevated supercells in the presence of moderate buoyancy and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Large hail and locally strong winds could occur. Stronger heating/destabilization near and immediately south of the northward-shifting front may support surface-based storm development near the boundary into the afternoon, potentially from south-central into southeast Texas including the coastal plain. Rich low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear would support supercells, with the possibility for all hazards including a tornado risk as well as large hail and damaging winds. There will be potential for forward-propagating clusters to evolve by late afternoon into this evening across far southeast Texas into Louisiana, with at least some severe risk continuing tonight particularly near and immediately south of the effective warm front. ...Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains... While richer moisture will stay confined to central/south Texas, a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization will be possible along the surface trough/effective dryline from the Texas South Plains vicinity northward into western Kansas. Greater storm coverage is expected across the northern portion of this corridor across western Kansas, in closer proximity to the primary mid/upper-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a hail threat with the strongest storms. However, with weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer shear, convection is expected to be only be weakly organized. Farther south, deep-layer flow/shear will increase southward along the dryline into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and the Texas South Plains. Ongoing early day thunderstorms and the potential for lingering low-level cloud cover are key factors of uncertainty for the extent and likelihood of near-dryline deep convection later today. Pending a scattering of lingering clouds and adequate diurnal destabilization, at least isolated supercell development is plausible along the dryline during the afternoon, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. This scenario currently appears most probable across the Concho Valley vicinity and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Moisture will likely remain rather limited across the upper Great Lakes vicinity in advance of the cold front, However, strong heating will support some destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Moderate west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support some potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may pose a threat for localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer.. 05/12/2024 Read more