SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232

1 year 2 months ago
WW 232 SEVERE TSTM TX 121400Z - 122000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 232 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 900 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and east Texas * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 900 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of slightly elevated thunderstorms, including embedded supercells, may persist through early afternoon while spreading eastward. The storm environment will favor the potential for occasional large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and isolated damaging gusts of 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles south southwest of Temple TX to 5 miles east southeast of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Thompson Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region, with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at 300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which will complicate the forecast. In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with various corridors of severe potential possible. ...Eastern TX into western GA... A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day. While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible, predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced risk potential. Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered over southern AL. To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential. Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties, and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category. However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day 1 period. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC MD 756

1 year 2 months ago
MD 0756 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232... FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0756 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Areas affected...Portions of East Texas and Upper Texas Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232... Valid 121549Z - 121745Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail up to 2 inches remains possible with the strongest storms in WW 232. Additional storms may develop south of the watch and would pose a greater tornado threat as they are near the surface warm front. DISCUSSION...The potential for large hail will continue in WW 232, particularly in northern portions of the watch where two ongoing supercell structures exist. The storm currently north of College Station has produced 2 inch hail in the last 90 minutes. As the warm front continues to lift slowly northward, convection has begun to develop near Houston. This convection has so far remained weak, but has shown some marginal supercell characteristics in the last 30 minutes. There is some potential for these storms to mature, though timing remains uncertain. Given their proximity to the warm front, they have a greater probability to be or soon be surface based. That said, tornado potential would be greater than storms farther north. Convective trends will need to be monitored in the next few hours. Either local expansion of WW 232 or perhaps a new watch may become necessary depending on convective evolution and the primary expected hazard. ..Wendt.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 29619655 29979652 30209653 30889666 31189656 31329625 31459507 31469448 31339435 30689432 29959417 29739416 29529471 29309584 29369636 29619655 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more