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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0752 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0752 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111858Z - 112100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms within the higher terrain of central New Mexico may produce large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. A watch is not anticipated this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent is increasing this afternoon across portions of central New Mexico. Despite dewpoints in the 40s F, this has allowed convection to develop on the higher terrain. A few low-topped storms are possible this afternoon. Long hodographs and around -17 C temperatures at 500 mb should promote some risk for large hail. These storms will progress northeastward, but will encounter a more stable environment at lower elevations. That said, storms may peak in intensity over the next 1-2 hours. A storm west of Los Alamos did show some signs of stronger low-level rotation in the last 30 minutes. The KABX VAD profile has modest low-level turning. The tornado threat will be tempered by the limited spatial extent of a favorable environment and generally marginally intense storms, but a brief tornado is at least possible. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... LAT...LON 34980722 36020720 36410666 36200577 35550545 34660518 34190554 34220613 34980722 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

MD 0751 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0751 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Areas affected...Portions of upper Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111837Z - 112030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds are possible with the strongest storms in the upper Ohio Valley. A watch is not expected this afternoon. DISCUSSION...In the wake of morning showers, temperatures have recovered into the mid/upper 50s F in eastern Ohio into northern West Virginia. Convection is developing along the cold front with aid from the compact shortwave trough moving through the lower Great Lakes region. Buoyancy will be limited, particularly near the Ohio/Pennsylvania border where stable outflow is apparent on visible satellite. An area of broader clearing near the southeast Ohio/West Virginia border should provide the greatest potential for storms to deepen sufficiently to produce marginally severe hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 39218238 39888202 40348181 41128158 41468134 41458065 41237987 40847964 39987990 39428046 38988106 38918172 39218238 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the critical area on the north and east fringes for the latest guidance. Widespread elevated, and a few hours of critical, fire-weather conditions appear likely Sunday. Please see the prior discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the critical area on the north and east fringes for the latest guidance. Widespread elevated, and a few hours of critical, fire-weather conditions appear likely Sunday. Please see the prior discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the critical area on the north and east fringes for the latest guidance. Widespread elevated, and a few hours of critical, fire-weather conditions appear likely Sunday. Please see the prior discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more