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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

MD 1298 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427... FOR SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1298 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...southeast MN/northeast IA into west-central WI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427... Valid 171012Z - 171215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of strong to severe gusts around 50-65 mph remains possible this morning across far southeast Minnesota into far northeast Iowa and west-central Wisconsin. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms near a surface boundary across southeast MN will continue to track east around 40 mph. This activity has produced gusts up to 67 mph recently. The downstream environment remains very moist and unstable, and a southwesterly low-level jet around 25-30 kt should further aid in maintenance for strong to severe convection the next couple of hours as storms approach the MS River. ..Leitman.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 44339373 44419197 43979116 43449119 43239146 43119255 43059341 43109400 43219413 43619419 44109422 44339373 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Central America (EP90):
An area of low pressure associated with disorganized showers and
thunderstorms has moved inland over Central America and further
development is not expected. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is forecast to continue across portions of southern Mexico
and Central America during the next several days. These rains are
likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW DNS TO 20 SSE SPW TO 35 NNW MCW TO 25 SE MSP. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-021-033-037-067-069-081-089-091-093-109-131-147-151-189- 191-195-197-171240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW FLOYD FRANKLIN HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MITCHELL PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH WRIGHT MNC039-045-047-049-055-099-109-147-157-169-171240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED STEELE WABASHA WINONA Read more

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW SUX TO 25 S FRM TO 20 N MKT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-021-033-035-037-041-067-069-081-089-091-093-109-131-147- 149-151-189-191-193-195-197-171140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CHICKASAW CLAY FLOYD FRANKLIN HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MITCHELL PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WOODBURY WORTH WRIGHT MNC013-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-099-109-131-147-157-161-169- 171140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT Read more

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SUX TO 15 ENE SPW TO 10 SE RWF. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-021-033-035-037-041-063-067-069-081-089-091-093-109-131- 141-147-149-151-167-189-191-193-195-197-171040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CHICKASAW CLAY EMMET FLOYD FRANKLIN HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MITCHELL O'BRIEN PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SIOUX WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WOODBURY WORTH WRIGHT MNC013-015-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-091-099-103-109-131-147- 157-161-165-169-171040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1297 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA AND WEST-CENTRAL WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...southern MN into northern IA and west-central WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 170755Z - 170930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/severe wind gusts 50-65 mph possible through early morning. A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has become better organized near the southwest MN/northwest IA border over the past hour. This activity is occurring closer to a surface boundary and on the nose of a 35 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Sufficient instability, steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support strong to severe thunderstorms into early morning. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon to address this increasing severe risk. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 42969651 43779631 44399567 44579518 45239266 45069112 44449065 43799085 43289164 42839330 42609495 42619622 42969651 Read more

WW 426 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 170305Z - 171100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 426 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern Nebraska Southern and Southeastern South Dakota * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1005 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are forecast to develop as a low-level jet intensifies over the central Great Plains late this evening into tonight. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of mainly a risk for large to very large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and perhaps a more isolated threat for severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north of Scottsbluff NE to 20 miles north northeast of Sioux Falls SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 425... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more