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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 13 16:33:06 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024 Read more