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MD 0771 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0771 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 132209Z - 132315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued soon. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. DISCUSSION...MCS is propagating east across the lower Sabine River Valley and the leading edge of this activity is surging across Calcasieu into Jefferson Davis Parish. Damaging winds are likely associated with this surging bow and the downstream air mass appears more than buoyant enough to maintain this complex given the observed shear. New ww will be issued soon. ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30979241 30969065 29718998 29559244 30979241 Read more

WW 0239 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0239 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0239 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0239 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 239 SEVERE TSTM LA MS CW 132225Z - 140500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southeast Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast moving line of thunderstorms over southwest Louisiana will track across the watch area during the evening. Damaging winds are the main threat with these storms, along with a possible tornado or two along the leading edge of activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Intracoastal City LA to 55 miles southeast of Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 236...WW 237...WW 238... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0770 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235...237... FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO FAR EASTERN LOUSIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0770 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...southern Texas into far eastern Lousiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...237... Valid 132022Z - 132215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235, 237 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues for WW235 and WW237. DISCUSSION...Storm mode across southern Texas has gradually transitioned to become linear over the last hour, with two broken line segments moving eastward. The more western line of convection has had recent reports of gusts up to 52 mph and golf ball size hail. The main threat with this more linear convection will remain damaging wind and large hail, with potential for a tornado or two through the evening. More discrete supercells have developed across the south Texas Brush Country. This is moving eastward into an unstable airmass where MLCAPE around 3000-4000 J/kg overlaps deep layer shear around 50 kts. This more discrete supercell activity will have the potential to produce very large hail up to 1-3.5 inches. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 27659727 27379858 27389935 27659995 28160043 28430030 28619954 28839871 29189768 29329719 29849625 30259544 30709381 30679340 30559305 30449280 29789271 29299351 28759508 28199602 27779696 27659727 Read more

WW 0238 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0238 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0238 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0238 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0238 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0238 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 238 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 132135Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 238 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Deep South Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will build/move southeastward into deep south Texas this evening, with a few cells posing a risk of damaging winds and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west northwest of Mcallen TX to 75 miles east northeast of Mcallen TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 236...WW 237... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0769 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0769 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the central and northern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132004Z - 132130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through this afternoon along a seabreeze and stationary boundary. Strong to severe wind gusts near 50 to 60 mph and perhaps a landspout are possible. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus developing along a seabreeze and stationary boundary. The latter is further north and draped west to east between Alachua and Columbia Counties. A few thunderstorms have already developed near these features as well, and additional diurnal development is expected. Although deep layer effective shear suggests some updraft organization may occur, poor mid level lapse rates will keep any marginally severe hail threat isolated. On the other hand, steep low level lapse rates/stretching potential and somewhat greater low level shear over the northern Florida peninsula closer to the stationary boundary may be sufficient for a brief landspout to occur with robust updrafts that manage to develop. Localized strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible with wet microbursts and merging cells. Given the isolated threat of the severe potential, a weather watch is not expected at this time. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 28648254 28878255 29288283 29798329 30098321 30248305 30238264 29888199 29728172 29368148 29078117 27518057 27408116 27238126 26828124 26788160 27208183 28008209 28648254 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more