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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 26 16:46:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/26/2024 Read more