Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S TYR TO 10 NE LFK TO 35 SW IER TO 15 NE IER TO 25 WSW MLU TO 35 N MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 ..HALBERT..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC021-043-059-069-073-127-262140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA WINN TXC005-403-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SABINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S TYR TO 10 NE LFK TO 35 SW IER TO 15 NE IER TO 25 WSW MLU TO 35 N MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 ..HALBERT..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC021-043-059-069-073-127-262140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA WINN TXC005-403-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SABINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S TYR TO 10 NE LFK TO 35 SW IER TO 15 NE IER TO 25 WSW MLU TO 35 N MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 ..HALBERT..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC021-043-059-069-073-127-262140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA WINN TXC005-403-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SABINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S TYR TO 10 NE LFK TO 35 SW IER TO 15 NE IER TO 25 WSW MLU TO 35 N MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 ..HALBERT..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC021-043-059-069-073-127-262140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA WINN TXC005-403-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SABINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 465 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 261745Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 465 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Northeast Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will sag southward across the watch area this afternoon. Hot and humid conditions ahead of the storms will promote a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of Longview TX to 75 miles northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 464... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 33025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0467 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0467 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection from the Ozarks into northern IN/OH and parts of PA/NY. Meanwhile, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) has been expanded across southeast TX, southwest LA, and parts of MS/AL ahead of a south and eastward advancing band of storms. A very moist, hot and unstable, but weakly sheared airmass may allow sporadic damaging gusts to persist into early evening to the south and east of WW 465. Severe thunderstorm potential will continue across WW 464 over parts of PA/southern NY, with some increase in severe potential developing over the next couple hours to the south and east of this watch. Reference forthcoming MCD 1429 for info on short term severe concerns across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. The only other change to severe probabilities with the 20z update was to add 5 percent hail probabilities across ID/MT/far northwest WY. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized cells. Cool temperatures aloft and modest instability amid straight/elongated hodographs will support isolated hail potential in addition to sporadic strong gusts. See MCD 1428 for more information. No changes were made to the central High Plains Slight (level 2 of 5) risk area. Convection is expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible through evening. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection from the Ozarks into northern IN/OH and parts of PA/NY. Meanwhile, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) has been expanded across southeast TX, southwest LA, and parts of MS/AL ahead of a south and eastward advancing band of storms. A very moist, hot and unstable, but weakly sheared airmass may allow sporadic damaging gusts to persist into early evening to the south and east of WW 465. Severe thunderstorm potential will continue across WW 464 over parts of PA/southern NY, with some increase in severe potential developing over the next couple hours to the south and east of this watch. Reference forthcoming MCD 1429 for info on short term severe concerns across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. The only other change to severe probabilities with the 20z update was to add 5 percent hail probabilities across ID/MT/far northwest WY. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized cells. Cool temperatures aloft and modest instability amid straight/elongated hodographs will support isolated hail potential in addition to sporadic strong gusts. See MCD 1428 for more information. No changes were made to the central High Plains Slight (level 2 of 5) risk area. Convection is expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible through evening. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection from the Ozarks into northern IN/OH and parts of PA/NY. Meanwhile, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) has been expanded across southeast TX, southwest LA, and parts of MS/AL ahead of a south and eastward advancing band of storms. A very moist, hot and unstable, but weakly sheared airmass may allow sporadic damaging gusts to persist into early evening to the south and east of WW 465. Severe thunderstorm potential will continue across WW 464 over parts of PA/southern NY, with some increase in severe potential developing over the next couple hours to the south and east of this watch. Reference forthcoming MCD 1429 for info on short term severe concerns across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. The only other change to severe probabilities with the 20z update was to add 5 percent hail probabilities across ID/MT/far northwest WY. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized cells. Cool temperatures aloft and modest instability amid straight/elongated hodographs will support isolated hail potential in addition to sporadic strong gusts. See MCD 1428 for more information. No changes were made to the central High Plains Slight (level 2 of 5) risk area. Convection is expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible through evening. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection from the Ozarks into northern IN/OH and parts of PA/NY. Meanwhile, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) has been expanded across southeast TX, southwest LA, and parts of MS/AL ahead of a south and eastward advancing band of storms. A very moist, hot and unstable, but weakly sheared airmass may allow sporadic damaging gusts to persist into early evening to the south and east of WW 465. Severe thunderstorm potential will continue across WW 464 over parts of PA/southern NY, with some increase in severe potential developing over the next couple hours to the south and east of this watch. Reference forthcoming MCD 1429 for info on short term severe concerns across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. The only other change to severe probabilities with the 20z update was to add 5 percent hail probabilities across ID/MT/far northwest WY. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized cells. Cool temperatures aloft and modest instability amid straight/elongated hodographs will support isolated hail potential in addition to sporadic strong gusts. See MCD 1428 for more information. No changes were made to the central High Plains Slight (level 2 of 5) risk area. Convection is expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible through evening. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection from the Ozarks into northern IN/OH and parts of PA/NY. Meanwhile, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) has been expanded across southeast TX, southwest LA, and parts of MS/AL ahead of a south and eastward advancing band of storms. A very moist, hot and unstable, but weakly sheared airmass may allow sporadic damaging gusts to persist into early evening to the south and east of WW 465. Severe thunderstorm potential will continue across WW 464 over parts of PA/southern NY, with some increase in severe potential developing over the next couple hours to the south and east of this watch. Reference forthcoming MCD 1429 for info on short term severe concerns across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. The only other change to severe probabilities with the 20z update was to add 5 percent hail probabilities across ID/MT/far northwest WY. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized cells. Cool temperatures aloft and modest instability amid straight/elongated hodographs will support isolated hail potential in addition to sporadic strong gusts. See MCD 1428 for more information. No changes were made to the central High Plains Slight (level 2 of 5) risk area. Convection is expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible through evening. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection from the Ozarks into northern IN/OH and parts of PA/NY. Meanwhile, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) has been expanded across southeast TX, southwest LA, and parts of MS/AL ahead of a south and eastward advancing band of storms. A very moist, hot and unstable, but weakly sheared airmass may allow sporadic damaging gusts to persist into early evening to the south and east of WW 465. Severe thunderstorm potential will continue across WW 464 over parts of PA/southern NY, with some increase in severe potential developing over the next couple hours to the south and east of this watch. Reference forthcoming MCD 1429 for info on short term severe concerns across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. The only other change to severe probabilities with the 20z update was to add 5 percent hail probabilities across ID/MT/far northwest WY. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized cells. Cool temperatures aloft and modest instability amid straight/elongated hodographs will support isolated hail potential in addition to sporadic strong gusts. See MCD 1428 for more information. No changes were made to the central High Plains Slight (level 2 of 5) risk area. Convection is expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible through evening. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection from the Ozarks into northern IN/OH and parts of PA/NY. Meanwhile, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) has been expanded across southeast TX, southwest LA, and parts of MS/AL ahead of a south and eastward advancing band of storms. A very moist, hot and unstable, but weakly sheared airmass may allow sporadic damaging gusts to persist into early evening to the south and east of WW 465. Severe thunderstorm potential will continue across WW 464 over parts of PA/southern NY, with some increase in severe potential developing over the next couple hours to the south and east of this watch. Reference forthcoming MCD 1429 for info on short term severe concerns across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. The only other change to severe probabilities with the 20z update was to add 5 percent hail probabilities across ID/MT/far northwest WY. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized cells. Cool temperatures aloft and modest instability amid straight/elongated hodographs will support isolated hail potential in addition to sporadic strong gusts. See MCD 1428 for more information. No changes were made to the central High Plains Slight (level 2 of 5) risk area. Convection is expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible through evening. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection from the Ozarks into northern IN/OH and parts of PA/NY. Meanwhile, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) has been expanded across southeast TX, southwest LA, and parts of MS/AL ahead of a south and eastward advancing band of storms. A very moist, hot and unstable, but weakly sheared airmass may allow sporadic damaging gusts to persist into early evening to the south and east of WW 465. Severe thunderstorm potential will continue across WW 464 over parts of PA/southern NY, with some increase in severe potential developing over the next couple hours to the south and east of this watch. Reference forthcoming MCD 1429 for info on short term severe concerns across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. The only other change to severe probabilities with the 20z update was to add 5 percent hail probabilities across ID/MT/far northwest WY. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized cells. Cool temperatures aloft and modest instability amid straight/elongated hodographs will support isolated hail potential in addition to sporadic strong gusts. See MCD 1428 for more information. No changes were made to the central High Plains Slight (level 2 of 5) risk area. Convection is expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible through evening. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection from the Ozarks into northern IN/OH and parts of PA/NY. Meanwhile, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) has been expanded across southeast TX, southwest LA, and parts of MS/AL ahead of a south and eastward advancing band of storms. A very moist, hot and unstable, but weakly sheared airmass may allow sporadic damaging gusts to persist into early evening to the south and east of WW 465. Severe thunderstorm potential will continue across WW 464 over parts of PA/southern NY, with some increase in severe potential developing over the next couple hours to the south and east of this watch. Reference forthcoming MCD 1429 for info on short term severe concerns across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. The only other change to severe probabilities with the 20z update was to add 5 percent hail probabilities across ID/MT/far northwest WY. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized cells. Cool temperatures aloft and modest instability amid straight/elongated hodographs will support isolated hail potential in addition to sporadic strong gusts. See MCD 1428 for more information. No changes were made to the central High Plains Slight (level 2 of 5) risk area. Convection is expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible through evening. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection from the Ozarks into northern IN/OH and parts of PA/NY. Meanwhile, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) has been expanded across southeast TX, southwest LA, and parts of MS/AL ahead of a south and eastward advancing band of storms. A very moist, hot and unstable, but weakly sheared airmass may allow sporadic damaging gusts to persist into early evening to the south and east of WW 465. Severe thunderstorm potential will continue across WW 464 over parts of PA/southern NY, with some increase in severe potential developing over the next couple hours to the south and east of this watch. Reference forthcoming MCD 1429 for info on short term severe concerns across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. The only other change to severe probabilities with the 20z update was to add 5 percent hail probabilities across ID/MT/far northwest WY. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized cells. Cool temperatures aloft and modest instability amid straight/elongated hodographs will support isolated hail potential in addition to sporadic strong gusts. See MCD 1428 for more information. No changes were made to the central High Plains Slight (level 2 of 5) risk area. Convection is expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible through evening. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection from the Ozarks into northern IN/OH and parts of PA/NY. Meanwhile, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) has been expanded across southeast TX, southwest LA, and parts of MS/AL ahead of a south and eastward advancing band of storms. A very moist, hot and unstable, but weakly sheared airmass may allow sporadic damaging gusts to persist into early evening to the south and east of WW 465. Severe thunderstorm potential will continue across WW 464 over parts of PA/southern NY, with some increase in severe potential developing over the next couple hours to the south and east of this watch. Reference forthcoming MCD 1429 for info on short term severe concerns across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. The only other change to severe probabilities with the 20z update was to add 5 percent hail probabilities across ID/MT/far northwest WY. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized cells. Cool temperatures aloft and modest instability amid straight/elongated hodographs will support isolated hail potential in addition to sporadic strong gusts. See MCD 1428 for more information. No changes were made to the central High Plains Slight (level 2 of 5) risk area. Convection is expected to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible through evening. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. ...High Plains... A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the central Rockies. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the adjacent plains. Easterly low-level winds over the plains will maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening. ...ArklaTex into TN... A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into northeast AR. The air mass ahead of this activity is very moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE values likely 2000-2500 J/kg. Winds aloft are rather weak, but will maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate. Read more