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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CNK TO 5 SSW STJ TO 30 ESE CDJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-027-029-031-041-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-107-111- 121-127-139-143-149-161-177-197-209-260940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON CLAY CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC013-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-083-089-095-101-107-159- 165-175-177-195-260940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES BUCHANAN CALDWELL Read more

MD 1422 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460...461... FOR SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHEAST KS...FAR NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Southeast NE...Northeast KS...Far Northwest MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460...461... Valid 260708Z - 260845Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460, 461 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts will continue across far southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Convective line moving across southeast NE has shown a notable increase in forward progression over the last hour, with storm motion now estimated at 50 to 55 kt. Ample buoyancy exists downstream for maintenance of this line, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg. This line is also oriented nearly perpendicular to the deep-layer vertical shear vector, suggesting the recent increase in forward motion may persist as the line continues southeastward into northeast KS. These factors suggest the threat for damaging gusts will continue with the line for at least the next few hours. BIE recently gusted to 57 kt. Over time, this convective line will likely interact with the slower-moving, more southward-progressing convective line (and associated outflow) that is moving from the MO River vicinity across northwest into central MO. How this interaction influences the either line is uncertain, but there is some chance for initial intensification of both lines before one becomes more dominant. ..Mosier.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39629792 40559724 40799658 40809604 40639557 39819467 39049464 38649504 38539634 39629792 Read more

MD 1421 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461... FOR NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1421 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northern/Central MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461... Valid 260617Z - 260815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line will continue pose a risk for damaging gusts, particularly across north-central into central Missouri. A watch will also be needed downstream across central and southern Missouri. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a southward/southeastward progressing convective line extending from northeast KS/northwest MO border intersection vicinity eastward into north-central MO. In particular, the easternmost extent of this line has shown a notable increase in southeastward motion over the past hour or so, with storm motion now estimated between 45 and 50 kt. This is the same portion of the line that produced a 51 kt gust at KLWD (in Decatur County IA). These factors, combined with radar velocity data, indicate the presence of a rear-inflow jet. Surface observations reveal an outflow boundary from prior convective that arcs from Linn County MO (just ahead of the bowing portion of the line) southward to Hickory County MO (50 miles north of SGF) and back more southeastward through south-central MO. This boundary could provide a favored corridor for storm progression later, while also contributing to a greater potential for severe gusts. The most favored corridor for severe gusts over the next hour exists from Carroll and Chariton Counties southeastward to Callaway County. Current storm motion take the line to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461 around 07Z, perhaps sooner if the line continues to accelerate. The severe potential will likely extend past this time, and a new watch will be needed downstream. ..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 40249538 40129401 40319331 39879200 38709048 37429300 38159486 38829561 40249538 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...WESTERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into the eastern Dakotas and parts of MN/WI. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will move across the Dakotas into Minnesota, though modest westerlies farther south will support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, both in the vicinity of the cold front and any outflow boundaries, and also within the post-frontal regime into parts of the central High Plains. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible, both near the cold front somewhere from southeast NE and IA into northeast KS and northern MO, and also within a potentially favorable post-frontal regime across the central High Plains. Large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible initially, along with some tornado potential, especially if any supercells can develop within a belt of stronger low-level flow/shear currently forecast from eastern KS into northern MO, southern IA, and western IL. Farther north, the magnitude of destabilization remains rather uncertain into the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, but strong deep-layer shear will support a conditional supercell threat, if sufficient pre-frontal buoyancy develops. A hail and severe-wind threat would accompany any persistent deep convection within this regime. A Slight Risk has been included where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm coverage within a favorable environment, from southeast NE/northeast KS into central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL. Storm coverage is less certain across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, while the corridor of the most favorable post-frontal environment is also uncertain across the central High Plains. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for those areas as well, depending on the resolution of these uncertainties. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...WESTERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into the eastern Dakotas and parts of MN/WI. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will move across the Dakotas into Minnesota, though modest westerlies farther south will support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, both in the vicinity of the cold front and any outflow boundaries, and also within the post-frontal regime into parts of the central High Plains. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible, both near the cold front somewhere from southeast NE and IA into northeast KS and northern MO, and also within a potentially favorable post-frontal regime across the central High Plains. Large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible initially, along with some tornado potential, especially if any supercells can develop within a belt of stronger low-level flow/shear currently forecast from eastern KS into northern MO, southern IA, and western IL. Farther north, the magnitude of destabilization remains rather uncertain into the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, but strong deep-layer shear will support a conditional supercell threat, if sufficient pre-frontal buoyancy develops. A hail and severe-wind threat would accompany any persistent deep convection within this regime. A Slight Risk has been included where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm coverage within a favorable environment, from southeast NE/northeast KS into central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL. Storm coverage is less certain across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, while the corridor of the most favorable post-frontal environment is also uncertain across the central High Plains. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for those areas as well, depending on the resolution of these uncertainties. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...WESTERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into the eastern Dakotas and parts of MN/WI. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will move across the Dakotas into Minnesota, though modest westerlies farther south will support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, both in the vicinity of the cold front and any outflow boundaries, and also within the post-frontal regime into parts of the central High Plains. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible, both near the cold front somewhere from southeast NE and IA into northeast KS and northern MO, and also within a potentially favorable post-frontal regime across the central High Plains. Large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible initially, along with some tornado potential, especially if any supercells can develop within a belt of stronger low-level flow/shear currently forecast from eastern KS into northern MO, southern IA, and western IL. Farther north, the magnitude of destabilization remains rather uncertain into the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, but strong deep-layer shear will support a conditional supercell threat, if sufficient pre-frontal buoyancy develops. A hail and severe-wind threat would accompany any persistent deep convection within this regime. A Slight Risk has been included where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm coverage within a favorable environment, from southeast NE/northeast KS into central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL. Storm coverage is less certain across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, while the corridor of the most favorable post-frontal environment is also uncertain across the central High Plains. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for those areas as well, depending on the resolution of these uncertainties. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...WESTERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into the eastern Dakotas and parts of MN/WI. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will move across the Dakotas into Minnesota, though modest westerlies farther south will support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, both in the vicinity of the cold front and any outflow boundaries, and also within the post-frontal regime into parts of the central High Plains. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible, both near the cold front somewhere from southeast NE and IA into northeast KS and northern MO, and also within a potentially favorable post-frontal regime across the central High Plains. Large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible initially, along with some tornado potential, especially if any supercells can develop within a belt of stronger low-level flow/shear currently forecast from eastern KS into northern MO, southern IA, and western IL. Farther north, the magnitude of destabilization remains rather uncertain into the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, but strong deep-layer shear will support a conditional supercell threat, if sufficient pre-frontal buoyancy develops. A hail and severe-wind threat would accompany any persistent deep convection within this regime. A Slight Risk has been included where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm coverage within a favorable environment, from southeast NE/northeast KS into central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL. Storm coverage is less certain across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, while the corridor of the most favorable post-frontal environment is also uncertain across the central High Plains. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for those areas as well, depending on the resolution of these uncertainties. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...WESTERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into the eastern Dakotas and parts of MN/WI. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will move across the Dakotas into Minnesota, though modest westerlies farther south will support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, both in the vicinity of the cold front and any outflow boundaries, and also within the post-frontal regime into parts of the central High Plains. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible, both near the cold front somewhere from southeast NE and IA into northeast KS and northern MO, and also within a potentially favorable post-frontal regime across the central High Plains. Large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible initially, along with some tornado potential, especially if any supercells can develop within a belt of stronger low-level flow/shear currently forecast from eastern KS into northern MO, southern IA, and western IL. Farther north, the magnitude of destabilization remains rather uncertain into the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, but strong deep-layer shear will support a conditional supercell threat, if sufficient pre-frontal buoyancy develops. A hail and severe-wind threat would accompany any persistent deep convection within this regime. A Slight Risk has been included where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm coverage within a favorable environment, from southeast NE/northeast KS into central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL. Storm coverage is less certain across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, while the corridor of the most favorable post-frontal environment is also uncertain across the central High Plains. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for those areas as well, depending on the resolution of these uncertainties. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...WESTERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move eastward across the Dakotas, with secondary low development possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and into the evening. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension of the front into the eastern Dakotas and parts of MN/WI. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will move across the Dakotas into Minnesota, though modest westerlies farther south will support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, both in the vicinity of the cold front and any outflow boundaries, and also within the post-frontal regime into parts of the central High Plains. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible, both near the cold front somewhere from southeast NE and IA into northeast KS and northern MO, and also within a potentially favorable post-frontal regime across the central High Plains. Large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible initially, along with some tornado potential, especially if any supercells can develop within a belt of stronger low-level flow/shear currently forecast from eastern KS into northern MO, southern IA, and western IL. Farther north, the magnitude of destabilization remains rather uncertain into the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, but strong deep-layer shear will support a conditional supercell threat, if sufficient pre-frontal buoyancy develops. A hail and severe-wind threat would accompany any persistent deep convection within this regime. A Slight Risk has been included where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm coverage within a favorable environment, from southeast NE/northeast KS into central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL. Storm coverage is less certain across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, while the corridor of the most favorable post-frontal environment is also uncertain across the central High Plains. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for those areas as well, depending on the resolution of these uncertainties. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more