Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early this week a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression could
form around midweek while the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more