Aggregator

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-301940- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN HANCOCK KENNEBEC KNOX LINCOLN OXFORD PENOBSCOT PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET WALDO WASHINGTON YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-301940- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN VTC005-009-017-027-301940- Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE AOO TO 15 NNW AVP TO 10 N ALB. ..LEITMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-301940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM DEC003-301940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-301940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE Read more

MD 1489 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NC/VA...MD...AND DE
Mesoscale Discussion 1489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NC/VA...MD...and DE Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 301611Z - 301815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next couple of hours, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the region withing the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Portions of northern VA into MD/DE continue to experience greater cloud cover at midday due to earlier day convection. The airmass across this area has been slower to recover as heating has been somewhat slower than surrounding areas. Instability increases with southward extent, and to the east of a surface trough, across southeast VA into northeast NC. With time, much of the region should achieve moderate to strong destabilization given surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s/low 90s F. Vertical shear will be strongest (around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) across northern VA/MD/DE, while decreasing with southward extent into NC. Convection may first develop in the uncapped and moderately unstable airmass near the surface trough across parts of NC into southeast VA. As airmass recovery continues across northern portions of the MCD area, additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of northern VA and shift east through late afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk of damaging gusts, with potentially some better organized/more intense bowing segments possible further north where better shear overlaps the moderately unstable airmass. Regardless, portions of the MCD area will likely need severe thunderstorm watch issuance within the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 38267896 39487737 39637579 38897528 36947495 35997518 35347621 35307850 35377947 35828018 36298023 37088010 37567970 38267896 Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N AOO TO 30 ENE IPT TO 35 E BGM. ..LEITMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-301840- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM DEC003-301840- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-301840- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE Read more

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-301840- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN HANCOCK KENNEBEC KNOX LINCOLN OXFORD PENOBSCOT PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET WALDO WASHINGTON YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-301840- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN VTC005-009-017-027-301840- Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024 Read more