Aggregator

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..07/25/24 ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC007-009-013-019-021-023-250140- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILA GRAHAM MARICOPA PIMA PINAL SANTA CRUZ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..07/25/24 ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC007-009-013-019-021-023-250140- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILA GRAHAM MARICOPA PIMA PINAL SANTA CRUZ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 559 SEVERE TSTM AZ 242100Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 559 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and southern Arizona * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM MST. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will form over the Rim and spread southwestward to the lower deserts through late evening. The storm environment will favor strong downdrafts capable of producing occasional damaging/severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Phoenix AZ to 65 miles east northeast of Tucson AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 03020. ...Thompson Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Bud, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located more than one thousand miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is associated with
some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of
this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 1704 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559... FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1704 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Areas affected...Southern Arizona Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559... Valid 242231Z - 250000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 559, primarily for severe wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow. DISCUSSION...The severe thunderstorm threat continues for WW 559 across southern Arizona, where daytime heating has resulted in surface temperatures rising into the 110s F. With surface dewpoints in the lower-to-mid 60s F, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg across southwest portions of the watch area will continue to support thunderstorm development in the short term. Proximity sounding profiles show deeply mixed boundary layers with large saturation deficits, and very-weak to weak deep layer shear, supporting the threat for severe wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow. The greatest short-term threat for severe wind gusts is currently confined to southern portions of the watch, where buoyancy is maximized and thunderstorms are ongoing. This threat will continue as storms move southwest towards the Mexican border, but should diminish after dark. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31611090 31551137 31651183 31741218 31871242 32031256 32371270 32721267 32991265 33161258 33511242 33761202 34021154 34381124 34481113 34501099 34431075 34261064 33851026 33621006 33020995 32911000 32350993 31921005 31731038 31611090 Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704 ..HALBERT..07/24/24 ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC007-009-013-019-021-023-242340- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILA GRAHAM MARICOPA PIMA PINAL SANTA CRUZ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 559 SEVERE TSTM AZ 242100Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 559 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and southern Arizona * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM MST. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will form over the Rim and spread southwestward to the lower deserts through late evening. The storm environment will favor strong downdrafts capable of producing occasional damaging/severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Phoenix AZ to 65 miles east northeast of Tucson AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 03020. ...Thompson Read more

A Bedford County farmer reported that he was already feeding hay to his cattle because the pasture was dry. Normally hay isn’t fed to the cattle until October. The area received a small amount of rain, which was helping the pasture grow. WSET-TV ABC 13 (Lynchburg, Va.), July 24, 2024

MD 1703 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1703 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Areas affected...eastern Ohio...western and northern Pennsylvania...and central New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242102Z - 242230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to produce occasional damaging winds this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed within a broad region of moderate instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). None of these storms have been particularly strong, but 25-30 knots of effective shear have permitted some organized cells to develop/persist from eastern Ohio into New York. Expect this continue for several more hours with a threat for damaging wind gusts before the threat lessens this evening as the boundary layer begins to cool. Despite several strong to severe storms, a watch is not anticipated due to the widely scattered nature of the threat. ..Bentley/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE... ILN... LAT...LON 40028233 41817985 42827728 43587632 44307624 44587567 44727486 44437456 43277451 42377499 41897616 40687843 39648009 39468121 39608211 40028233 Read more

MD 1702 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON...SOUTHWEST IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA
Mesoscale Discussion 1702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Oregon...Southwest Idaho...far Northeast California...and far Northwest Nevada Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242038Z - 242145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms capable of strong to severe outflow winds are possible, though watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows isolated convective development beginning to occur across the region amid strong surface heating (temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 F) and sufficient low-level moisture (dew point temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s F), yielding SBCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg with strong low-level lapse rates (exceeding 10 C/km). Additionally, broad forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level trough traversing the region is aiding is destabilization and erosion of convective inhibition. As the relatively stronger flow associated with the trough overspreads the region, effective bulk shear should continue to increase near 30-35 kt. Given the aforementioned environment and trends, storms are expected to continue expanding in coverage while exhibiting at least transient organization. Gusty outflow winds exceeding severe limits will be the main threat with these storms. Presently, severe storm coverage is anticipated to remain transient and sparse, precluding the need for a watch at this time. However, convective trends will continue to be monitored into the evening. ..Karstens/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR... LAT...LON 41981658 41231974 41602026 43162018 44101997 44571846 44261698 43031626 41981658 Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0559 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more