Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak upper trough will migrate across the Midwest early in the forecast period. However, weak deep-layer flow and relatively modest large-scale ascent may limit severe potential. Generally low-amplitude upper troughing will then prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS through much of the work week. Meanwhile, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies/High Plains vicinity will persist for much of the Day 4-8 period. Some severe potential is possible in a northwesterly flow regime over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valley around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, but this risk would largely be driven by mesoscale factors not well resolved at longer time periods. Late in the period, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough may develop eastward atop the upper ridge in the vicinity of the northern Plains. This break down of the upper ridge amid a very moist and unstable boundary layer would be a favorable pattern for potential MCS development around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak upper trough will migrate across the Midwest early in the forecast period. However, weak deep-layer flow and relatively modest large-scale ascent may limit severe potential. Generally low-amplitude upper troughing will then prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS through much of the work week. Meanwhile, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies/High Plains vicinity will persist for much of the Day 4-8 period. Some severe potential is possible in a northwesterly flow regime over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valley around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, but this risk would largely be driven by mesoscale factors not well resolved at longer time periods. Late in the period, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough may develop eastward atop the upper ridge in the vicinity of the northern Plains. This break down of the upper ridge amid a very moist and unstable boundary layer would be a favorable pattern for potential MCS development around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak upper trough will migrate across the Midwest early in the forecast period. However, weak deep-layer flow and relatively modest large-scale ascent may limit severe potential. Generally low-amplitude upper troughing will then prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS through much of the work week. Meanwhile, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies/High Plains vicinity will persist for much of the Day 4-8 period. Some severe potential is possible in a northwesterly flow regime over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valley around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, but this risk would largely be driven by mesoscale factors not well resolved at longer time periods. Late in the period, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough may develop eastward atop the upper ridge in the vicinity of the northern Plains. This break down of the upper ridge amid a very moist and unstable boundary layer would be a favorable pattern for potential MCS development around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250834 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 Bud continues to show a sheared cloud pattern this morning, with the low-level center near the eastern edge of the main area of deep convection. Recent ASCAT overpasses showed reliable-looking 35-40 kt winds northwest of the the center just north of the strongest convection, and based on these the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. This intensity is also supported by other recent satellite intensity estimates of 35-40 kt. The initial motion is a little slower than before, 295/10 kt. The cyclone should turn westward over the next 12-24 h as it moves along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Later, as the system weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as the shallow vortex becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance has shifted a bit to the north since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is moved northward as well. However, the new track is still to the south of the consensus models. Continued moderate shear and some nearby drier air are likely to prevent additional strengthening even though the cyclone is forecast to stay over relatively warm water. In addition, after 12 h Bud is expected to move into an area of upper-level convergence. This should make it more difficult for the system to keep producing convection, and the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest the convection will dissipate in 24 h or less. Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new intensity forecast calls for Bud to weaken, with the system becoming a depression in 24 h and a remnant low by 36 h. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate completely in 60-72 h in agreement with global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250834 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250833 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.3W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.3W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250833 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 ...BUD A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 114.3W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 114.3 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a slower southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is expected to begin weakening later today or tonight, and the system is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion recently reported a wind gust of 44 mph (71 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...BUD A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM MST Thu Jul 25 the center of Bud was located near 17.9, -114.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Northern Plains... An upper low will be centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba on Saturday, with the associated northern stream upper trough extending southwest from the upper low into MT. The northern stream trough will develop east across the Canadian Prairies, clipping the northern Plains. Meanwhile, another convectively enhanced shortwave impulse embedded in westerly flow will migrate eastward across WY into the SD/NE vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift southeast across the northern Plains during the evening/overnight hours. Ahead of the front, south/southeasterly low-level flow will aid in northeastward transport of richer boundary layer moisture. Convection will likely develop ahead of the cold front in ND during the evening and into the overnight hours. Additional thunderstorm clusters related to the shortwave impulse emanating out of WY are expected by late afternoon/early evening. Aided by 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet, this activity may also form upscale into an eastward propagating MCS across parts of SD/NE. At least isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible given favorable thermodynamic profiles and effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt. Timing of shortwave trough ejection and surface cold front position, as well as questions regarding a recovering airmass in the wake of an early day exiting shortwave trough still lend to plenty of uncertainty for the Day 3/Saturday period. However, greater severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as these finer scale details become better resolved in the coming days. ..Leitman.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Northern Plains... An upper low will be centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba on Saturday, with the associated northern stream upper trough extending southwest from the upper low into MT. The northern stream trough will develop east across the Canadian Prairies, clipping the northern Plains. Meanwhile, another convectively enhanced shortwave impulse embedded in westerly flow will migrate eastward across WY into the SD/NE vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift southeast across the northern Plains during the evening/overnight hours. Ahead of the front, south/southeasterly low-level flow will aid in northeastward transport of richer boundary layer moisture. Convection will likely develop ahead of the cold front in ND during the evening and into the overnight hours. Additional thunderstorm clusters related to the shortwave impulse emanating out of WY are expected by late afternoon/early evening. Aided by 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet, this activity may also form upscale into an eastward propagating MCS across parts of SD/NE. At least isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible given favorable thermodynamic profiles and effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt. Timing of shortwave trough ejection and surface cold front position, as well as questions regarding a recovering airmass in the wake of an early day exiting shortwave trough still lend to plenty of uncertainty for the Day 3/Saturday period. However, greater severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as these finer scale details become better resolved in the coming days. ..Leitman.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Northern Plains... An upper low will be centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba on Saturday, with the associated northern stream upper trough extending southwest from the upper low into MT. The northern stream trough will develop east across the Canadian Prairies, clipping the northern Plains. Meanwhile, another convectively enhanced shortwave impulse embedded in westerly flow will migrate eastward across WY into the SD/NE vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift southeast across the northern Plains during the evening/overnight hours. Ahead of the front, south/southeasterly low-level flow will aid in northeastward transport of richer boundary layer moisture. Convection will likely develop ahead of the cold front in ND during the evening and into the overnight hours. Additional thunderstorm clusters related to the shortwave impulse emanating out of WY are expected by late afternoon/early evening. Aided by 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet, this activity may also form upscale into an eastward propagating MCS across parts of SD/NE. At least isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible given favorable thermodynamic profiles and effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt. Timing of shortwave trough ejection and surface cold front position, as well as questions regarding a recovering airmass in the wake of an early day exiting shortwave trough still lend to plenty of uncertainty for the Day 3/Saturday period. However, greater severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as these finer scale details become better resolved in the coming days. ..Leitman.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Northern Plains... An upper low will be centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba on Saturday, with the associated northern stream upper trough extending southwest from the upper low into MT. The northern stream trough will develop east across the Canadian Prairies, clipping the northern Plains. Meanwhile, another convectively enhanced shortwave impulse embedded in westerly flow will migrate eastward across WY into the SD/NE vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift southeast across the northern Plains during the evening/overnight hours. Ahead of the front, south/southeasterly low-level flow will aid in northeastward transport of richer boundary layer moisture. Convection will likely develop ahead of the cold front in ND during the evening and into the overnight hours. Additional thunderstorm clusters related to the shortwave impulse emanating out of WY are expected by late afternoon/early evening. Aided by 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet, this activity may also form upscale into an eastward propagating MCS across parts of SD/NE. At least isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible given favorable thermodynamic profiles and effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt. Timing of shortwave trough ejection and surface cold front position, as well as questions regarding a recovering airmass in the wake of an early day exiting shortwave trough still lend to plenty of uncertainty for the Day 3/Saturday period. However, greater severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as these finer scale details become better resolved in the coming days. ..Leitman.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more